Constant Mutation of the virus - anyone know anything?

[Da1sycha1n]

After the news of this latest new mutation I was wondering just how much viruses can and do change.

From what I've read and heard (which isn't a huge amount admittedly) the Omicron variant is far more easily transmitted but isn't causing too much illness.

So if it spreads really quickly and easily, is it possible that IT could then mutate to become even deadlier AND still be fast spreading?

Is the aim of a virus to spread (and keep itself alive), to infect, or to spread and infect BADLY.

Also, if it can evade the vaccine won't it just keep mutating and avoid all vaccines?

I'm sorry if this sounds like I'm putting forward a doom and gloom scenario, I'm not trying to be like that, or be goady, I'd just like to try and understand a bit more about it all so was thinking about all of the above, and also wondering if that is why countries have taken quicker action to close borders/tighten restrictions.

I have also seen reported a suggestion that it was able to mutate such a lot because the original Omicron host was a very unwell AIDS patient, so had been long term ill with a compromised immune system. Another thought I had was whether there was any possibility the COVID and AIDS viruses mutated together into something fast spreading.... or whether that's not even a remote possibility. An AIDS-COVID hybrid....

Sorry - I am too gloomy aren't I.

You make it sound like it has a dastardly plan - viruses are not sentient beings so it is not thinking cleverly about mutating in the way that will cause the most damage! I am not a scientist, but I think historically that viruses tend to mutate to become more infectious but less deadly - because if it kills its host too quickly it can't transmit as successfully. There has been concern that this may not happen with covid, because it can have a long incubation period during which the host is infectious, meaning that it has plenty of time to spread about before it makes its host seriously unwell. If omicron is more infectious, but significantly less virulent, then it could be good news - fingers crossed!

Mutations of viruses is completely normal, and expected. Obviously over time you'd hope the strains mutate to become less harmful, take for example the common cold.
I don't think they work the way you're suggesting and can join with other viruses to become some super virus (however I'm not a scientist so someone can correct me if I'm wrong)
I think you've been reading too much Facebook, and Dr Google. Unless medical professionals come out and say these things, you can only take them with a pinch of salt and just keep looking forward and hoping things are looking up.

Yes, variants can be more or less transmissible, and more or less deadly.

There is no particular evolutionary pressure for a virus which is readily transmissible before symptoms show to change what sort of disease it produces - it's moved on to a new host and so doesn't 'care' about what happens to the old one.

There is however evolutionary pressure for these variants which escape the current vaccines to outcompete the others

The reason the HIV status of the likely 'patient zero' is relevant is because if the effects on the immune system and the inability of the body to clear the virus, giving it longer in the human incubator. The Kent strain is similarly believed to have arisen in an immune suppressed patient (chemotherapy)

It is not viruses crossing, it's those with new mutations (happens all,the time) getting the chance to flourish in one place for rather longer

also on your question of mutating and avoiding the vaccines, it's the reason a new flu jab is made available every year. Because the flu strains mutate. I would assume covid will become much like this, where during the more prevalent seasons of the virus, annual jabs will become available for the elderly and vulnerable.

I have also seen reported a suggestion that it was able to mutate such a lot because the original Omicron host was a very unwell AIDS patient, so had been long term ill with a compromised immune system. Another thought I had was whether there was any possibility the COVID and AIDS viruses mutated together into something fast spreading.... or whether that's not even a remote possibility. An AIDS-COVID hybrid....

I’m not a scientist but my understanding is that no, this isn’t a concern at all. Which logically makes sense to me - all viruses mutate, and patients with HIV will have been catching viruses for decades. If HIV could combine with other viruses, there would already be a HIV-common cold hybrid, or HIV-flu hybrid surely.

And AIDS isn’t a virus.

There are huge biological limits to how much it can mutate. It can't turn itself into Zika or measles. So it will remain recognizable by most immune systems, in the same way that, with a few reminders, you easily learn and remember that a Great Dane and chihuahua are both dogs and therefore how to interact with them. Most mutations are either unimportant or even bad and actually neuter (deactivate) the virus. The coronaviruses are a very slow mutating group, say the virologists (I work with). It's just that C19 had a lot of people to work through so lots of chances to find a mutation that might make it more transmissible. Viruses do poach genetic material from each other or their hosts, but this way of causing genetic change is also mostly unsuccessful : weakens the virus or does nothing special to it. I'm not sure how RNA viruses poach genes from DNA-hosts, actually, someone else can say how that happens (during cell replication?)

The most successful mutations will cause milder disease because then the virus spreads more easily by people who don't realise they even have it. I guess mutations can happen in any direction but the strong evolutionary pressure is to mutate into being both more transmissible and much less dangerous to hosts. For all the talk about "scary new variants" -- maybe mutation is our friend. It will most likely lead to "much less scary variant" being dominant.

afaik, The genetic differences between, say alpha and Omicron variants of C19, are still tiny compared to the differences between (say) influenza A & influenza C. An optimistic scenario is if Delta ended up being like influenza A (to manage long term) & Omicron like Influenza C. Both around, but they are not equal size problems.

Agree with @SickAndTiredAgain

Viruses mutate frequently, we only hear about them when they have selective advantage and so can replicate. There won't be an HIV-covid hybrid. It doesn't work like that. Expect this to happen again and again. Fortunately it is likely to become less dangerous and the vaccines will now be relatively easy to tweet (just like flu) and we'll get mew ones each year.

I've also read somewhere that yes there's a risk that it could become both more virulent and more harmful. Which is why global vaccination is key, rather than just letting a mild-but-extremely-virulent variant spread unchecked through the world.

This thread goes into some detail about viruses evolving:

twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1464913368201015297

Virus mutate randomly. It is mistakes when reproducing. Some mutations are good for the virus some bad. Now after it has mutated natural selection plays a part. The virus doesn't want to do anything it just exists and reproduces. So a virus may get more or less deadly. A virus that kills like ebola or mers may or may not infect everyone killing half of the population each time. This is only an issue if it restricts reproduction which it probably will because humans will start self protecting. A cold virus for example we take little precautions for as it is mildly irritating and consequently it spreads well and there is lots of mutations because there are so many virons out there replicating.

Viruses do mutate. Over time they often become more transmissible but less deadly. That's the desirable state if you're a virus. It's not in the virus' interests to kill everyone it infects, if it does that, it itself dies out. More contagious but less harmful is what it's aiming for.

Early reports from doctors in SA do suggest that's what happened here, but it's early days and right to be cautious until more is known.

The other thing is, that a dominant strain wilm wipe out others - delta has rid us of the previous strains, so if the new one is a milder illness, it could actually be good news.

Thank you so much for all your replies (and for not telling me off for being gloomy!).

I really appreciate you taking the time to explain things to me, thanks 😊

It's not in the virus' interests to kill everyone it infects, if it does that, it itself dies out. More contagious but less harmful is what it's aiming for

It doesn’t have an aim. It’s a mindless virus. More successful variants are those that can spread easily. Sometimes that comes with mild disease for the host but that’s not automatically the case.

@PurpleDaisies

It's not in the virus' interests to kill everyone it infects, if it does that, it itself dies out. More contagious but less harmful is what it's aiming for

It doesn’t have an aim. It’s a mindless virus. More successful variants are those that can spread easily. Sometimes that comes with mild disease for the host but that’s not automatically the case.

Of course the virus isn't sitting there with it's list of aims and ambtions, but "sucessful" mutations follow patterns and evolution "knows" that.

@SickAndTiredAgain

I have also seen reported a suggestion that it was able to mutate such a lot because the original Omicron host was a very unwell AIDS patient, so had been long term ill with a compromised immune system. Another thought I had was whether there was any possibility the COVID and AIDS viruses mutated together into something fast spreading.... or whether that's not even a remote possibility. An AIDS-COVID hybrid....

I’m not a scientist but my understanding is that no, this isn’t a concern at all. Which logically makes sense to me - all viruses mutate, and patients with HIV will have been catching viruses for decades. If HIV could combine with other viruses, there would already be a HIV-common cold hybrid, or HIV-flu hybrid surely.

And AIDS isn’t a virus.

It is not a realistic possibility. Viruses usually can recombine only with close relatives, and they have to be within the same cell for that to occur. Even HIV-1 and HIV-2 are not too friendly to each other in that respect.

Also, coronaviruses are reasonably stable compared to other RNA viruses, they have something like an inbuilt proof-reading mechanism. The current rate of mutations is actually quite low if you consider all the human-hours of infection clocked worldwide.

A more realistic possibility is "cross-pollinating" with other coronaviruses, eg MERS or any wild ones crossing species again. But again, a very remote possibility.

A more realistic possibility is that new mutations arise artificially under directed evolution and are weaponised. Many of mutations ensembles seen in omicron have been grown in the lab previously (eg here)

I am not a "true" scientist, just a grad biomedical degree, but that's my understanding of the current state of play.