A new variant doesn't equal disaster

[chararara]

A new variant, more negative news.

Fact is, it is far too early to know anything concrete about this variant and already the news is contradicting itself. They are overly negative for views.

Some more positive points:

• South Africa has great genome testing and does a lot more advanced testing than neighbouring countries due to their expertise from HIV testing. It is no surprise they discovered it and very possible other countries missed it. The sequence of this variant points to being older than two weeks. Hence, it is likely it already existed and SA have been the first to pick it up. Why is this good? It means it has potentially been circulating for months, so if it has only just been noticed, it is less likely to be the extra transmissible nightmare as the media state.

• SA is not a good country to make predictions from. They have a low vaccine rate, yet had unusually low infections. Any strain would take a great hold, so it's impossible to say that its "ripping through," when the population is largely unvaccinated. Data cannot be extrapolated to majority vaccinated countries at this point in time.

• It has new spike protein additions. Concerning? Yes. Definitely a problem? No. They could just be changes that have barely any impact. It's just as feasible to assume the best, as well as the worst.

• Even if this is a more transmissible strain or resistant strain, it is highly unlikely it would completely evade vaccines or not offer defense against severe illness.

We are not back at the beginning. Be cautious and mindful with the media you consume. Get a booster vaccine.

Some less negative articles:

www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/r2k067/new_variant_will_not_take_us_back_to_square_one/

Also, I do not the time to find them right now, but for every clickbait scientist who predicts this variant as the end of humanity, there is another one who predicts this strain as potentially mutating to less lethal and a positive thing.

If you try hard enough, you can find articles praising this variant.

Just goes to show the extreme and the fact no one knows a lot yet.

It isn’t even new, it was identified in July (see link below) , now is just a convenient time to wheel it out to create hysteria, restrict travel and perhaps even impose lockdowns for Christmas. Will reduce CO2 from travel and remind the population they should be fearful and compliant:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variants/

So fed up of the scaremongering

Which scientists have said it’s the end of humanity?

Every scientist I’ve read or heard has said it is a variant of concern, but it’s too soon to know it’s effects and the best thing you can do is to get your vaccine.

The variant identified back in July 2021 and now suddenly in the news is the B1.1.529

@LizzieSiddal
With the greatest of respect, you obviously don’t know many scientists (I speak as one!)

Don’t panic Mr Mannering - unless you are a Covid cultist 🤪

Appreciate the thread, good post

With the greatest of respect, you obviously don’t know many scientists (I speak as one!)

I do actually 🤣 and my post stands. Where has a scientist said it’s the end of humanity?

Well said OP!

@LizzieSiddal

I'm being hyperbolic but the negativity from some scientists is immense.

It is known the spike proteins are different and it has mutations- A lot of scientists are announcing this as a disaster. Predictions are being made on transmissibility using data that's a week old, not knowing the origin date, context, full scenario, etc... Simply, bold assumptions on an incomplete calculation = poison media and scaremongering.

I can't remember the name, but one scientist had predicted a 500% (or some incredibly high number) transmission increase in a statement based off one town in SA's increase. That's shoddy and lazy science at the best. Will be very grateful if anyone knows the link!

[quote CamQ]It isn’t even new, it was identified in July (see link below) , now is just a convenient time to wheel it out to create hysteria, restrict travel and perhaps even impose lockdowns for Christmas. Will reduce CO2 from travel and remind the population they should be fearful and compliant:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variants/[/quote]
It wasn't discovered in July.

That article was written in July about Delta and Alpha (web.archive.org/web/20210714215707/www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variants/) but has since been updated with information about the new variant.

Of course ‘the media’ won’t report 100% accurately. People shouldn’t take their information from ‘the media’ but research a bit themselves first, read trusted sources.

It could be nothing or it could be bad. We don’t know yet. Imposing a few restrictions now doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world though.

I am not a scientist, can someone explain this graph because it looks pretty scary to me?

Thank you for this thread OP. It’s good to have a bit of positivity. Been feeling shit since reading the news this morning. The media seem to want this to be a complete disaster, its bloody depressing.

@SmellyOldOwls

I am not a scientist, can someone explain this graph because it looks pretty scary to me?

I'm not a scientist either, but my understanding is that the graph is based on a relatively small number of cases in an area where cases were also generally quite low. So with less to compete against, it's easier for this new variant to quickly get a higher overall share of cases.

(So it doesn't necessarily mean it's much worse than other variants, just that it has less to compete with at this time in that area.)

Who are you trying to reassure OP? Yourself?

I’m not worried as such, just think it’s inevitable that something like this would happen given that the west has hoarded vaccines to itself.

I’m not going to shrug my shoulders about it, but will keep an eye and see what the government says we should or shouldn’t do.

What I won’t do is try and find reasons why I shouldnt worry because that’s not much much better. I’m not a virologist.

just think it’s inevitable that something like this would happen given that the west has hoarded vaccines to itself.

I remember listening to Andrew Pollard, who is very critical of vaccinating children over poor countries - do you agree with that part? You’d not do that?

Who anyway said variants weren’t the reason to share as it wouldn’t make much difference to that

Not to share that is…

Basically variant lower than other reasons

Thanks op. I keep reading we’re back to March 2020. Apart from we’ve learnt loads from the virus , medicine has evolved so much and we’ve got the vaccine that would do something even if it wasn’t 100% protection that catching the virus won’t mean March 2020 when we thought wtf is going on

Agree.
Until we know how ill it makes people or just how ineffective vaccines are it's not a huge moment to worry.
However I do think masks should be mandatory again until we get to Christmas.... It's so easy to wear masks, exempt people have their sunflower etc. What's the harm!

[quote CamQ]It isn’t even new, it was identified in July (see link below) , now is just a convenient time to wheel it out to create hysteria, restrict travel and perhaps even impose lockdowns for Christmas. Will reduce CO2 from travel and remind the population they should be fearful and compliant:

www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variants/[/quote]
OK, I don't know what's gone on there, but jumping straight to 'it's a cynical population control exercise/great reset' just makes you sound like a loon. IF that were the case, is it plausible that the global conspiracy would be cracked by some randomer on Mumsnet?

I do agree it's too early to be panicking, but I don't believe they've deliberately kept this secret for four months in order to ruin Christmas. If that we're the case, I'm sure they would have done a better job of it.