'Covid exit strategy leaked - self isolation/testing could be scrapped by April'

[DavidDevantsSpiritWife]

Reported by the Mail originally but picked up
elsewhere.

Could be a load of old tosh, could be that thing where they leak stuff/deny all knowledge/it happens anyway.

It was always bound to happen eventually of course, and I suppose post-winter would be the most sensible time to do it.

Feels strange, though, after everything. Positive in some ways, troubling in others - if you're immunocompromised or vulnerable in any way it's going to be worrying.

I do completely understand why some immunocompromised/vulnerable people will be worried at this prospect, though.

There's no easy way out, unfortunately.

There will probably be some hideous catch. End of testing and isolation for those taking quarterly vaccine boosters and regular antivirals?

@Kokeshi123

I believe we now have some very good drug treatments, which apparently change the reality for the immunocompromised.

The immunocompromised have always had to be careful about a bunch of things. We can't continue with hypervigilence for ever--it will damage children's education and drive women out of the workplace.

I'm hopeful the anti-virals being introduced will be as much as a game-changer as vaccines... If they are as good as the trials suggest, and there's no reason to believe they won't be, then we should be able to get completely back to normal by spring.

Sorry but this whole thing is just insane. We’ve got a pm who today is saying that he can’t rule out further lockdowns whilst seemingly simultaneously planning to remove any requirement to isolate if covid positive.

I literally give up trying to understand this whole situation.

A couple of points about this.

Firstly it has to happen at some point. And the data does suggest the Spring is a realistic and reasonable point.

But there are a couple of associated issues it throws up.

Firstly lateral flows. They are popular with a lot of people because they use them to try and protect elderly or vulnerable relatives or because they make them feel less anxious about socialising and spreading covid. If we more to ending legally required isolation for covid, then the argument for lateral flows also evaporates for all but healthcare settings, and I think a lot of people will struggle with that mentally too. Lateral flows have become something of a comfort blanket for many. Economic hardship does mean that people will actively start going to work with covid - particularly because this move will almost certainly remove economic benefits for isolation and again thats going to cause angst/conflict because no one will be able to tell the difference between a cold and covid but there still will be this fear of covid for some for a while yet. That is going to cause workplace issues for employers to manage. We have almost got to a place where many take free lateral flows for granted. A restriction in availability of free lateral flows will come as a shock to some.

In terms of travel it could make it harder for us to go abroad if other countries view us as not managing covid rather than past covid. Until they have also fully exited a surge there may be concerns. This could also impact the advice for travel to the uk. At present my dutch friend isn't able to holiday here because of the advice (essential travel only. It would affect her travel insurance if she ignored the advice.) it then is about whether other countries trust us and how it looks for them in terms of their own exit strategy to their domestic public (there are a few European countries who are going to still continue to have issues into spring judging from their data).

Looking at the numbers for the uk, we are likely to get another (smaller) peak or a series of localised peaks this side of Christmas but nothing like we've had previously. Then gradually decline and we are into long term management strategy with regular vaccine top ups by the look of it. Plus we now have a number of drugs approved or looking promising for management of covid which make the situation very different to March 2020 even for the immunocompromised. Our understanding of covid is in a completely different league now.

But the psychological transfer to that is going to be difficult. Whilst we have data prediction many will struggle to trust it until we have more data to back up predictions. As it goes the uk is currently doing better than the best case predictions we had back in June / July but I don't think most have really grasped this. There still a big and very legitimate worry over booster take up (and thats now going to be a long term ongoing battle) but on the whole the numbers are encouraging and do support the suggestion of dropping isolation in the spring. Its going to be politicised massively, but if the numbers continue as they are and the way I'm expecting over the next few months, it will be the right call at the right time.

Its a bigger adjustment than people give credit for.

It is good news!

@RedToothBrush if we scrap testing we would lose sequencing for variants no? When the vaccine escaping one arrives, how will we know it’s here? Will we be testing the dead and the ones hospitalised with ‘pneumonia’?

If testing and isolation goes then booster uptake will start to dwindle too which will then create more opportunities for infections to climb.

The whole concept at this stage just seems like a very bad idea regardless of the money it’s costing us.

Testing will still continue in hospital environments thewise so sequencing would still continue.

Endlessly living a life through the covid lense is very damaging. In order for us to learn to live with the virus, like any other, is to stop the daily reporting of numbers (we don't do this for flu) stop testing and only seek medical help if you need it, vaccinate those that are most vulnerable and get used to the idea that we may catch covid 6-7 times in our lifetimes and most of us will be fine. Immunity will build up and covid will eventually become background noise. Yes those that are suffering from anxiety will panic, those that use covid as a crutch for avoidance will need to find another. But collectively we need to move on, and this is a good way to do it.

Seems like the worst timeing to me. Spring is 6 months away - right when immunity from school infections and elder boosters will start to decline. If they want us to take ongoing boosters there will have to be some way of proving to us it's necessary, eg, by an increase of cases detected by testing.

Some people now live for covid, restrictions and lockdown dramas, and will be bitterly disappointed when this is all over.

@Fairylights25

Some people now live for covid, restrictions and lockdown dramas, and will be bitterly disappointed when this is all over.

I do agree with that, especially prevalent on MN. They seem to thrive on endless speculation and circular arguments day after day.

I also agree that April sounds like a reasonable time.

I thought one of the reasons why covid is especially dangerous to CEV people was because of the large amount of people who have it asymptotically. So yes people are used to not seeing granny when they have a cold, but with covid and without any testing they could feel perfectly fine but still pass it on.

I am glad that there is an ‘exit plan’ but I do think covid has changed out approach to illness in general. In the past I have had colleagues from Asia who would wear a mask if they had a cold or on the tube, because it was normal to them. I think there will be more of that going forward.

@Fairylights25

I don't think anyone wants lockdown and restrictions but asking people with a potentially unpleasant infection to stay out the way for a bit seems like a good idea to me. In the same way I would prefer someone with flu or noro didn't come into work

@Fairylights25

Some people now live for covid, restrictions and lockdown dramas, and will be bitterly disappointed when this is all over.

This isn’t even remotely true and unfortunately it’s not going to be over anytime soon no matter how many times people try to dismiss discussing Covid as ‘living for restrictions and the drama’.

You’re on the Coronavirus board, if you are worried or anxious whilst others are discussing Covid may I gently suggest you visit other threads such as the Christmas ones perhaps.

You’re on the Coronavirus board, if you are worried or anxious whilst others are discussing Covid may I gently suggest you visit other threads such as the Christmas ones perhaps

I don't agree with that. I think the Coronavirus topic and some of the poster's beliefs and opinions on it fascinating. Why would anyone want to look at Christmas threads in particular?
I would gently suggest that posters can read and comment on whatever topics they like.

@Fairylights25 has hit the nail on the head. It’s definitely time to move on.

I think it's "OK" as long as society as a whole becomes more aware of the vulnerable. People's shouldn't really be closer than 1m in most shops for example. People should think twice about touching random stuff unnecessarily. Those with covid need to behave responsibly - if they are allowed out then they should try to keep away from others and not attend something like a concert or a football match. It's common sense really. Only a total asshole would go to a restaurant, for example, with covid. But you could safely walk your dog with covid late at night as long as you stick to places where you don't touch gates and can steer clear of other people.

It would make more sense to start by reducing the isolation period to 5 days from 10. The most infectious days are just before and just after symptoms start, and those who are really ill beyond 5 days would just end up staying at home anyway (a bit like most people with flu are just too unwell to even think about going out).

@JKDinomum

Realistically Test and trace is nearly doing nothing now. They are now wasting time contacting people to tell them they are a contact and they don't have to isolate if they are jabbed or under 18. They only advise to get tested.

Agree, let’s stop wasting money. Test and trace either doesn’t contact people or does it far too late. Possibly there may be a role for self testing no reporting in a small amount of circumstances e.g. households with very immunosupressed people. Money would be far better spent on improving capacity in the NHS. That’s the only aspect that worries me- we really do need more capacity as there will be increased numbers needing treatment going forward (and not just the very vulnerable who you could take steps to protect).

“ if we scrap testing we would lose sequencing for variants no?”

What happens with flu variants in terms of testing and sequencing for vaccine development?

The advice will be that if you are ill with anything, please can you stay at home. If you are CEV you will need to stay on top of your boosters.

We now have very effective medication now to combat covid even if you catch it and become very unwell, we have vaccines, we have treatments, we have boosters. That is quite an arsenal and one that will work for 'most' people.

We are never going to be in a position of total protection, this is going to be good enough. Quite frankly I think most people are sick to death of it, quite literally, and are ready for the next stage.

@RichTeaRichTea

“ if we scrap testing we would lose sequencing for variants no?”

What happens with flu variants in terms of testing and sequencing for vaccine development?

They test regularly.

“ They test regularly.”

Exactly, but not asymptomatic testing or testing for symptoms that can be managed at home, generally? (I am assuming, I don’t know for sure, I would be glad to be enlightened by people who know this stuff)

So there is less reason to be overly concerned that new variants will be missed through lack of mass testing for covid, given that we already have a process for other diseases, if that is the main worry

People's shouldn't really be closer than 1m in most shops for example.

This is an impractical and unsustainable suggestion.

@RichTeaRichTea

“ if we scrap testing we would lose sequencing for variants no?”

What happens with flu variants in terms of testing and sequencing for vaccine development?

To be fair sequencing huge amounts of samples is very useful and we know much more about covid as a result. Flu vaccines are best guest and could be a lot more accurate with increased testing. However, budgets aren’t unlimited, to throw everything at covid to the exclusion of everything else just doesn’t make sense. We can’t protect everyone from every possible illness and some other areas the treatment has nose dived. Waiting lists in general are ridiculous. There has to be balance. We’ve all been vaccinated including kids, primarily to protect others. That’s the right thing to do, people can take some responsibility for reducing transmission. I certainly don’t agree that the vulnerable should be left to fend for themselves but there is a balance. Many people are suffering waiting for other treatments and with mental health problems caused by restrictions, it’s a case of balancing everyone’s needs