40% decrease for hospitality trade since introducing vaccine passports

[DumplingsAndStew]

Heard on the car radio yesterday that it's been reported that since vaccine passports were introduced, the hospitality trade are experiencing a 40% decrease in custom.

Why would that be? There's not 40% of adults unvaccinated is there? Is it likely many vaccinated customers are staying away in protest?

@DumplingsAndStew thanks. The person I was speaking to reckons he's got about 2 months of reserves before he can't continue.

What we've noticed is people go into town, do what they have to do and go home. He would have people that would pop in for a coffee before they shopped, then come back for lunch after they shopped, sometimes a couple of times a week. Now they wave on the way past and don't go to anywhere they don't need to go to. It's only people who come in just to go to the café who are coming, and that's a relatively few percentage.

A lot of people I know are avoiding going into pubs and restaurants while infections rates are so high. A meal out during the day may be fine but you couldn't convince me to go into a busy pub on an evening.

And most people are skint at the moment with the cost of everything going up so much (utility bills, council tax etc.).

In Wales they're bringing vaccine passports in and they're a right faff. It takes 24 hours to get one approved, so you aren't going anywhere on the spur of the moment if you haven't already done one.

Also not everyone has a smartphone and it takes even longer to get a paper version.

Wales NHS Covid pass: What is it and how do I get one?

Looks like English passes should be accepted in Wales but no idea if they will in practice and we've had issues with the photo ID uploads with one welsh pass we tried to sort out so far - will have to try again.

If we were regularly going out might be worth the effort of sorting - but for upcoming family visit probably easier to do other things and when it's just us to pop over to nearby English cities maybe do a bit of shopping there as well.

So not exactly planning on boycotting but finding easier alternatives - but how you'd put a figure on that sort of behavior for Scotland vs more general downturns I'm not sure.

People just got used to being at home

And Uber eats etc do a great job. I'd only eat out now if meeting up with people. As a family it's just lost its appeal to us

And I've realised the food is overpriced and in a lot of cases, sub standard

It's not a treat anymore

According to Travelling Tabby, 71.7% of the entire Scottish population have had two vaccine doses. I guess that explains 29.3% of the reduction, but that's assuming that 100% of the population typically uses hospitality services that require passports during the time scale the figures were gathered. Which obviously wouldn't be true

But of those 29% they will be in groups where the vaccinated will just not go out to dinner because their unvaccinated family member/friend/colleague cannot go. They will just find an alternative venue which will probably be staying in to party/dance/fine which is a more risky alternative

That would make up the extra 11%. So quite possible that the trade is down 40%

Given there is a lot of infection in the double vaccinated I think it is false security in thinking by keeping out the unvaccinated then the venue will be Covid free

I'm not convinced it's anything to do with vaccine passports - it's natural for trade to drop off at this time of year, and plenty of people who used to go out regularly are just choosing not to.

Personally, I'm happy to go out for a meal, or for early doors drinks with a couple of close friends somewhere not too busy, but I have no inclination to go to a crowded pub on a weekend evening just yet. I think there's a lot of people like me who are still concerned about catching covid and being choosy about where and when they go out.

And another thing - I went to an event last week where a vaccine pass was apparently required but nobody asked to see it.

Many, even all of, our local eateries are open reduced hours because they are short of staff. Any time I've tried to book a table, they have been full. It has been necessary to book weeks ahead to secure a table.

Based on my own, individual circumstances, it seems reasonable to attribute the reduction to staff shortages.

It's the thing about statistics, people tend to quote the ones that suit the argument they want to support.

I got into the habit of taking my own drink out with me and now can't be bothered with popping into a cafe when out

@Bythemillpond

Given there is a lot of infection in the double vaccinated I think it is false security in thinking by keeping out the unvaccinated then the venue will be Covid free

Absolutely agree with this. The theory behind vaccine passports would only work if the vaccines had a much higher level of immunity against transmission.

It's a bit concerning that this statistic is being said with no transparency as to where its come from.

@hellcatspangle

And another thing - I went to an event last week where a vaccine pass was apparently required but nobody asked to see it.

There's a delay in getting the passes here - you can't rock up find they are checking so you do need one and then apply.

I don't want to have to pre-pay for threater tickets and find can't get English relatives in or one of us - nor do I want to pay out on transport for cinerma and then find can't get some of us in.

Some venues apparently not checking dosen't save me from faff of getting covid passes or reduce risk that there may be some issue with passes possibly meaning we can't all accesses and thus wasting money.

Cafes, pubs and restraunts don't require passes yet - so them and staying in are more attractive options.

Though I can't say were going to them with the same frequency as we once did - but we are generally not back to pre-pandemic level outtings. There a whole mix of reasons to loss of facilites/services, less visiting from relatives, kids ages, high local levels despite us all being vaccinated as much as possible, changes in our habits even local public transprot issues - strikes/other reduced servcies or wokrs on trainlines and money concerns with winter fuel prices and christmas etc.

It’s not just vaccine passports

It’s more people working from home so no work lunches, coffee meetings, after work drinks and dinner etc

That has had a far greater impact

@Newgirls

It’s not just vaccine passports

It’s more people working from home so no work lunches, coffee meetings, after work drinks and dinner etc

That has had a far greater impact

Do you have a source on this please?

[quote DumplingsAndStew]@Bythemillpond

Given there is a lot of infection in the double vaccinated I think it is false security in thinking by keeping out the unvaccinated then the venue will be Covid free

Absolutely agree with this. The theory behind vaccine passports would only work if the vaccines had a much higher level of immunity against transmission.

It's a bit concerning that this statistic is being said with no transparency as to where its come from.[/quote]
Agree also

Dumplings it’s well known in the industry especially London

Do you have a source on this please?

Do you have a source that links the decrease in footfall with vaccine passports? Your claims are based on anecdata, and fail to appreciate the difference between correlation and causation.

Ignore it if you like! It’s pretty obvious to anyone who works in hospitality. The world changed.

I don’t have a strong view for or against vaccine passports. But it’s more complex than that.

Not sure what figs you want - most places are still reeling from lack of staff, supply issues and trying to promote Xmas menus. Not sure many are writing reports about it

I agree with Newgirls, the issue is far more complex than blaming vaccine passports, especially as businesses in England are experiencing the same problem.

Thanks Corr

I think the key phrases are “up to” and “some”. So up to 40% in some venues I.e. most venues are seeing less than that.

Part of it is weather etc.

I also think that a lot of the groups of people who’d be happy to go out to venues and people who are happy to be unvaccinated overlap a lot. Both groups aren’t that risk averse. So - disproportionate amount of the people who were going out were unvaccinated.

I would think it's more likely that cases being so high is putting people off socialising indoors in public. At least if you go to someone's house you can all do lateral flows first.

Maybe an element of passports being the reason, especially as the younger people who are more likely to go out are less likely to be vaccinated... but I sincerely doubt that's that only reason.

The article was from the first weekend , it is bound to be some time before things settle down. It will be interesting to compare the home nations approaches and see if they make any real difference

I think it's a combo of things. I'm someone who ate out a lot. After the initial flurry of getting excited & going back out I've realised how expensive it is & I just can't be bothered to self isolate etc

At least if you go to someone's house you can all do lateral flows first.

Do people still do this?