NHS chief and Covid admissions stats turn out to be false

[Againstmachine]

So we have the new head of NHS England stating that admissions are 14 times higher that last year, when they are actually significantly lower.

So we now have someone who is eithier incompetent or a liar which is it.

fullfact.org/health/amanda-pritchard-nhs-hospitalisations/

Both incompetent and a liar is my guess. Didn't check her facts.

She did actually say she was using August as an example, if you look at the full quote. She wasn't claiming it was current figures but was explaining it was hard to set up elective procedures, which a Covid-filled August would influence.

She should have probably stopped at the "it's not gone away," message rather than make it sound more extreme, but it's less dishonest than this post, in terms of context.

Whatever you think of someone, trying to whip up anger by deliberately taking words out of context is disingenuous and a poor way to argue.

Was she talking about the August figures? Which look about right - 14x more admissions for August this year.

About 50 admissions in 2020 and 700 in 2021?

And how are August’s figures relevant to our situation now, in November?

Probably an incompetent liar, but only following the example of the the PM, cabinet and MPs in general.

@Againstmachine perhaps you should try reading the article linked by Full Fact - who evidently did not read it either.

From the Health Service Journal:

The latest monthly figures show that in August, for example, diagnostic tests were up around a fifth and elective procedures up around a third compared to a year ago despite admitting 14 times more covid patients in hospital

So she's talking about August. In England

From coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare you could see that there were:

1629 covid recorded admissions in England in August 2020

as compared with

22,877 in August 2021

The latter being 14 times higher than the former. So her statement is correct.

Very different context for August this year as opposed to last - no Delta, no festivals, no nightclubs in August 2020. Nevertheless that does not change the accuracy of the statement.

However covid cases are extrememly high and likely on the rise. Which is worrying with a growing number not bothering to test, 2nd and 3rd infections not included in data so pisitive figure is far higher.

Hospitilisations and deaths are lower as a percentage of % cases due to vaccination protection. But vaccination isnt fool proof and vaccinated people can still get hospitalised and die.
Deaths are not far behind november last year (deaths due to second/third infection or after 28 days are not included in data) and rising. Vaccination protection could be waning in those not eligable for a booster.

Lets hope we dont surpass last year 🤞

However covid cases are extrememly high and likely on the rise.

Cases have been falling for weeks in England. Iirc this is the 17th day where the cases have been lower than the same day the week before. It’s excellent news. Feel free to enjoy it.

@Covidworries

However covid cases are extrememly high and likely on the rise. Which is worrying with a growing number not bothering to test, 2nd and 3rd infections not included in data so pisitive figure is far higher.

Hospitilisations and deaths are lower as a percentage of % cases due to vaccination protection. But vaccination isnt fool proof and vaccinated people can still get hospitalised and die.
Deaths are not far behind november last year (deaths due to second/third infection or after 28 days are not included in data) and rising. Vaccination protection could be waning in those not eligable for a booster.

Lets hope we dont surpass last year 🤞

2nd and 3rd infections not included in data so pisitive figure is far higher. Are you saying that the government's published infection stats aren't counting people who've had already had covid before?

and if we are in any way concerned about accuracy, the seven day average for reported covid admissions in England dropped below 2020 levels on 21st October with it widening (eg fewer admissions in 2021) everyday since.

given some do seem to struggle seven day average for deaths in England within 28 days of a positive test by date of death.

Recognising the reporting lag, the seven day average is calculated up to 3rd November.

126 at the moment this year, and showing signs of falling back a little further as compared with :

272 at the same point in 2020; then rising to 388 by end November 2020, and 589 by last new year's eve. We all know what then happened in January.

What we actually have is media who don't understand data they are given, and public who then believe the sensationalist fake news.

A direct quote from Pritchard:
Our staff are continuing to deliver extraordinary results recovering services in the face of record demand. The latest monthly figures show that in August, for example, diagnostic tests were up around a fifth and elective procedures up around a third compared to a year ago despite admitting 14 times more covid patients in hospital.

1. She was talking about tests and elective procedures, for which the latest complete data was August, so it was correct to use covid hospital admissions from the same month.

2. She was talking about hospital admissions, not the number of people in hospital. Comparing the number in hospital with the number of admissions is garbage, but many media outlets did this.

@altmember

Yes absolutely that

@bumeymummy

And yet many openly admit to not testing with symptoms so what is the actual figure? Add in those with 2/3 infections and the positive rate is higher than data. How much higher is difficult to know because the data is hidden.
They also dont show in covid hospital admission or covid deaths so again it may an incredibly low number or high. We just dont know because of lack of transparency.

Also when we are talking 30k plus daily infections 700 odd less isnt much of a drop.
Almosr 300 deaths again yesterday.

We are a strange country where we divorce management from science.

Surely the head of the NHS should have a medical qualification, or at least one in a relevant STEM field? Amanda Pritchard has a degree in history.

Medicine is a scientific discipline and NHS decisions are made on an understanding of ‘big data’.

In addition, most of the employees are from scientific backgrounds. She would have to do a damned good job to earn their respect.

I am not a big believer in management as a science per se and, even if there were some truth to it, there are plenty of STEM graduates who are ‘talented’ managers.

Personally, I think that kind of ignorance in someone so senior, together with the arrogance of stating it as a fact, should be career threatening.

@TheReluctantPhoenix

We are a strange country where we divorce management from science.

Surely the head of the NHS should have a medical qualification, or at least one in a relevant STEM field? Amanda Pritchard has a degree in history.

Medicine is a scientific discipline and NHS decisions are made on an understanding of ‘big data’.

In addition, most of the employees are from scientific backgrounds. She would have to do a damned good job to earn their respect.

I am not a big believer in management as a science per se and, even if there were some truth to it, there are plenty of STEM graduates who are ‘talented’ managers.

Personally, I think that kind of ignorance in someone so senior, together with the arrogance of stating it as a fact, should be career threatening.

I agree with your first sentence, but you need to read the rest of the article to see that the 14x statement, was, and remains, true in the context in which it was said.

[quote Covidworries]@bumeymummy

And yet many openly admit to not testing with symptoms so what is the actual figure? Add in those with 2/3 infections and the positive rate is higher than data. How much higher is difficult to know because the data is hidden.
They also dont show in covid hospital admission or covid deaths so again it may an incredibly low number or high. We just dont know because of lack of transparency.

Also when we are talking 30k plus daily infections 700 odd less isnt much of a drop.
Almosr 300 deaths again yesterday.[/quote]
“ In a technical article we published in June 2021, based on data from our survey, we found that reinfections are rare and typically milder than first time infections. It also indicated that those reinfected tended to carry a much lower amount of virus in their system (known as low viral load) compared to initial infections.

This was critical, as it suggested that individuals may have had a stronger immune response to reinfection than they did with their first infection.”

blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/27/what-can-the-ons-tell-you-about-covid-19-reinfections/

"Understanding the risk, and improving public understanding of reinfections is crucial to the ongoing management of the pandemic across the UK. Those previously infected by COVID-19 may be less likely to come forward for testing even if they have symptoms, believing themselves protected by natural immunity and therefore unable to catch COVID-19 again."

Also from the blog.

Thanks for posting @bumbleymummy. It’s seems any positivity gets shot down or argued away. It baffles me why some seem to want the misery to continue so much that they discount any stats to the contrary

I think this showed that the nudge behaviour is still very strong and that they are using fear to try and get more to get the boosters despite respected scientists like Sara Gilbert saying that they are not needed for most

@PAFMO a problem that we can also see with vaccinated people, right?

@Nerdygirl I know. Some people just seem to want to cling to the misery. I do think it’s mainly online though. In real life people seem much happier to just move on and try to get back to normal.

@bumbleymummy

I hold caution because june 2021 does not factor in anything past june 2021. The true impact may not be known for years. Lets hope that the long term data reflects the same but lets not forget the early studies showing children dont transmit the virus from the first lockdown that evidence got blown out of the water once schools reopened fully.

@nerdygirl

Its not wanting the misery to continue. Its being cautious that data can be used to show anything. And currently the government want everyone back to normal and spending.which is great for the ecomony but not great if sticking head in the sand or data manipulation results in major hospital issues this winter.

Yes i hope everything goes well and numbers continue to come down but im also realistic to realise that isnt the only possible outcome

[quote bumbleymummy]@PAFMO a problem that we can also see with vaccinated people, right?

@Nerdygirl I know. Some people just seem to want to cling to the misery. I do think it’s mainly online though. In real life people seem much happier to just move on and try to get back to normal.[/quote]
Of course. Nobody has said otherwise as the post is about cases in the UK being very probably a lot higher than is thought due to previously infected people vaccinated or not) being reluctant to test.

If that was the case then we wouldn’t see a fall in hospital admissions.