Where are we going with this?

[UtterlyUnimaginativeUsername]

I'm not really understanding where we're going with covid. I'm in Ireland, and the daily cases graph is looking fairly dire. Hospitalisations and ICU cases aren't as high as they were pre-vaccination, but we've still managed to hit the point where planned procedures are being cancelled because of capacity issues. The governments have said that they're 'not currently' talking about reintroducing restrictions, but we still have covid passports (which apparently places aren't insisting on), masks, hand sanitizer everywhere, and encouragement to avoid socialising, especially indoors.

With the way the figures are going, it looks very much like some restrictions will have to be reintroduced over the winter, to enable the health system to maintain some ability to deal with non-covid issues (as they have enormous backlogs as it is).

While the vaccines have undoubtedly made a huge difference, I had expected them to be even more of a gamechanger. I thought the rollout was the beginning of the end. I thought that we'd be beyond the threat of further restrictions now.

So where are we going now? The hospital and ICU cases are mainly unvaccinated, and I don't think it's likely that we'll see huge numbers of them changing their minds about the vaccine at this stage. Are we holding tight, with restrictions being turned on and off, till we come up with more effective treatments? Do we invest more in the health services so they have the capacity to deal with covid numbers as well? I mean, obviously that should happen, but it's probably not going to, and it's probably not even that simple, because you'd have to find extra staff.

I'm just not sure how things will progress from here.

Any thoughts, anyone?

My thoughts are we need to improve the vaccines or at home treatment of covid to prevent hospitalisation.... Or put more money into the Healthcare system.... I can't see anything else working unless the virus suddenly mutates to not killing people or making them need hospital treatment

It’s tricky isn’t it? I no longer no what the end game or the plan is.

I think the strategy was to remove all restrictions, get the peak out of the way before winter and allow case to fall naturally. This is taking a long time though. And we’ve been far too slow on immunisations/boosters.

We will be looking at numbers of Covid deaths annually at some point being on a par with flu? But that’s a lot of extra people being seriously ill every year with an NHS that isn’t fit for purpose.

The best solution would be to invest in healthcare whilst researching new treatments/ vaccines. But can’t see that happening.

At some point cases will have to start dropping (there’s signs this is happening is but we need a few more weeks).

The USA are vaccinating kids aged 5 to 11, starting from next week.

If we want to bring circulation down, we need to do that. The JCVI are hopelessly slow though, so I suppose we're in for another awful winter.

It needs to be vaccine coverage + mitigations.
I'm in Italy and despite something like 90% of 12-17 year olds DOUBLE vaccinated, and masks mandatory along with Green Passes, our cases are rising too. Not giving (yet) cause for concern, but still enough for your health minister to do a presser and tell everyone that this is not over by a long shot and that mitigations will probably be in force till at least March 22.
The two grouos with biggest increases are 5-12 year olds, and the city of Trieste, which has become the centre of the anti green pass protests.
That said, they're also closing Covid only hospitals, and our town's mass Vax hub closed last Friday.
I think Covid ultimately will become as pp says, just another flu virus to deal with as and when. But we're not there yet, that's the point.

In Ireland, though, they're not dropping, they're rocketing up. This is the graph of our cases since the start; I know the figures are probably laughably low to you but our population is a lot smaller!

@PicsInRed

The USA are vaccinating kids aged 5 to 11, starting from next week.

If we want to bring circulation down, we need to do that. The JCVI are hopelessly slow though, so I suppose we're in for another awful winter.

It's being talked about here too. I think it will be sooner rather than later.

@UtterlyUnimaginativeUsername

In Ireland, though, they're not dropping, they're rocketing up. This is the graph of our cases since the start; I know the figures are probably laughably low to you but our population is a lot smaller!

We had the same in Scotland and they fell again.

How long will it take to become a flu-like phenomenon though? Vaccination and natural infections haven't given herd immunity the way we expected. Flu is fairly controlled every year with only the vulnerable being vaccinated, in Ireland at any rate, but even with over 90% vaccinated here, covid is not remotely under control. If it's a question of people having it enough times that immune systems adapt, that's going to take decades.

I'm in ROI too. Case numbers in isolation aren't particularly helpful as a metric any more. Hospitalisation / ICU numbers are what count. They're actually dipping right now. This may or may not last, but our case numbers are very high among the very young right now, which shouldn't translate into a huge number of hospitalisations.

According to NPHET modelling, this wave peaks towards the end of November. Boosters are being rolled out and hopefully they will make a degree of difference.

The real problem is the unvaccinated vulnerable and I think any further restrictions will have to focus on them to make any actual impact. The government are walking a fine line because to impose significant, blanket restrictions would take away any incentive to be vaccinated and ultimately be ignored by a large percentage of the population.

This article is really interesting (US focused)

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/what-americas-covid-goal-now/620572/

Thanks for the link, @TheKeatingFive, that's very interesting, and very much in line with what I was thinking.

It's not just the cases numbers that are worrying me, it's the fact that they're starting to cancel planned procedures due to covid numbers. With the dramatic rise in cases recently, it seems likely that hospital and ICU numbers will follow to some degree, and it looks like we don't have the capacity there, without affecting normal health services.

I think we all now need to expect we will both be exposed to and catch covid. The vaccinations will mean the vast majority of people can now do that safely. But I think we are on year 1 of a 2-3 year road to overall immunity to this virus.

Equally, part of the problem for the health service stems directly from restrictions last year, leading to decreased immunity to RSV / Flu and therefore more serious illness from these than usual.

It's very difficult. Lockdowns aren't ultimately good news for public health either outside of the kind of crisis situations we faced last year, so I see why they want to push through if at all possible.

I think here people need to do the booster and flu vaccine to get through winter

A bit more positivity today about Spring

The vaccinations will mean the vast majority of people can now do that safely. But I think we are on year 1 of a 2-3 year road to overall immunity to this virus.

This sounds about right. The biggest benefit we could see is if the unvaccinated over 50s were persuaded to change their minds.