76% of children have been infected in England

[Warhertisuff]

And 47% of the total population according to University of Cambridge research! It doesn't particularly surprise me, but didn't think it was quite that high!

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-20th-october-2021/

Given how it's spread through schools over the past months and given these figures, I'd be surprised if things didn't die back down in schools in the run up to Christmas.

Sounds low maybe, If 97% of whole population have antibodies, but only 86% of the eligible have had jab...

We're all gonna get covid repeatedly throughout rest of our lives. Not unlike flu. It's another type of common cold soon.

I really don’t think 75% of my child’s school have had it. If they have it’s practically all been asymptomatic then with no positive tests. They’ve never had a big outbreak at all.

No way have 75% of children had it round here. It doesn’t require a genius to notice that some schools have been considerably more badly affected than others.

Well when my kids had it they were both asymptomatic. I got them tested, as I had it. This was last Christmas. I have wondered if I caught covid after being double vaccinated, would I have even known?

@JS87

I really don’t think 75% of my child’s school have had it. If they have it’s practically all been asymptomatic then with no positive tests. They’ve never had a big outbreak at all.

The figure is national and there are obviously going to be disparities between individual schools, often big ones. Many children will be asymptomatic too

That would be 'great' news if only you couldn't get it more than once

I can see how this could be true. All the kids I know who have had it have been asymptomatic or very mid and only tested after being a contact

I read a report recently which suggested that asymptomatic rates may be much higher in children than previous thought. In very young children it was thought that up to 80% of cases may be asymptomatic. That may help explain the 75% figure. My nursery keeps telling us that it has only ever had 4 covid cases out of 50 odd children but I think it's much more likely that toddlers don't present with traditional symptoms and it's extremely difficult to test them.

I take this as quite good news. It means that the mortality rate in children is very low and that overall around 1 in 225 of those who have caught covid have died, with most of those deaths occurring before the majority of people were vaccinated (so rate will now be much lower).

I also hope it means that we will see a natural peak and decline in cases soon - if it has essentially run through children recently and they are currently causing most of the spread we should see a slow down - but it seems very difficult to predict these things so I'm not making any bets.

I believe those numbers. A child in my DS class had a fit to fly test recently and it came up positive. The child didn’t have any symptoms. The parents informed other parents and straight away everyone did LFT.. We have now 9 positive results in one class within a week ( confirm by pcr tests). None of the kids have any symptoms.

I can believe this based on my children's different secondaries here in the West Mids.
Both of mine caught it at different times from school - one last year and one this term.
Most of their friends have had it too.

I don't believe those numbers to be honest. I have 4 schoolmaged children in different schools and classes, in 2 very different areas and none of them or any of their 8 cousins who live in different parts of the country have tested positive. Each kid has had 2, 5, 2 and 0 classmates tested positive, with very regular testing.

maybe in certain parts of the country but where we are it feels more like 20% at most.

I take this as quite good news. It means that the mortality rate in children is very low and that overall around 1 in 225 of those who have caught covid have died,

I'm presuming you mean 1 in 225,000?!

The report gives a infection fatality rate of 5-14 year olds of 0.0011% or roughly 1 in. 100,000.

@GreenLunchBox

That would be 'great' news if only you couldn't get it more than once

It is great news. This was never going to be a virus that eventually went away, like SARS-COV-1. It was always going to become endemic. The 76% in kids means we’ll see cases start to drop within the next couple of weeks (already peaking in some areas, and the rate of growth has stalled) with all age groups having a very decent amount of immunity. Boosters in the 99% of people most at risk of hospitalisation/death, will cover any waning in the old and vulnerable.

Covid will still be around forever, but will eventually become one of the (previously 4, now 5) coronavirus that regularly circulate and are harmful to very few.

I struggle to believe this as well. 4 kids. Only one has had confirmed covid and the rest have all been tested but negative with any of the main three symptoms. Lots of lf tests too.

I honestly dont think they was asymptomatic either as I had covid in Jan but ds had it in August. So unless he was asymptomatic in Jan and has it twice. He will quite unwell in August

@Sonex

It's very patchy - my children's schools have been affected much, though I'm not sure how you know that kids in your children's classes were all tested regularly.

Couldn't comment on %s but my older dc have not had covid but they're definitely a minority compared to their peer groups who have mainly already had covid

@Warhertisuff
The one in 225 figure is that if 47% of the population have had covid that is 31.5m people.

Of those, 139k have died.

That is roughly 1 in 225 of those infected.

It's still a lot of deaths but perhaps better than people would have thought, particularly in the context where the vaccinations will have greatly reduced that figure.

The figures for children are obviously much better.

I hope this is somewhere near accurate. If it is, the govt’s “strategy” of just holding their nerve and letting this wave peak before full winter is the correct one.

[quote Chessie678]@Warhertisuff
The one in 225 figure is that if 47% of the population have had covid that is 31.5m people.

Of those, 139k have died.

That is roughly 1 in 225 of those infected.

It's still a lot of deaths but perhaps better than people would have thought, particularly in the context where the vaccinations will have greatly reduced that figure.

The figures for children are obviously much better.[/quote]
Sorry. I misread the post... and thought the figure being referred to was children

The only reason DD2 was tested was she complained of a headache at school. It lasted a few hours.
The only reason DD1 was tested was because DD2 was positive. She had no symptoms.

I can well believe a large number of children have had it asymptomatically or not been recognised as having had it.

I can believe those numbers. It’s interesting if you look at the case map right now, affluent outer city areas where people had been able to wfh last year and shield from the virus are now showing much higher case rates than inner cities. I believe the combination of natural infection + vaccination in densely populated (and often deprived) areas is providing something of a (temporary) firewall.

My own area in East Kent has one of the highest death rates in the country. Based on my reckoning something like 80% of the town has had Covid. We currently have low case rates.

I only know of one case In one of my kids class of 33

If 47% of the population has had it, it's amazing that DH and I never contracted it. We used public transport, live in London, DH goes into office everyday.

How do they know this? Surely kids who have had it in the long past won't be showing antibodies now (and presumably can catch it again?!)

It did seem like the govt plan was for as many in schools to catch it as possible this term with insistence on sending family members back in/not telling close contacts.

Locally very few seem to be off. Nearly full classes for both mine. Often one off they know with covid but certainly not 45% of friends they know have been so most will have been asymptomatic?

If so it does chill me a little the conscious sending in of family members of those with covid to schools. ...

To accept that you'd have to accept that there was no onward transmission to adults which is not what's been happening. The previous 2 waves it's been clear it moves through the age groups and eventually finds vulnerable people who need hospital. I don't believe that many children are effected silently and with no onward consequences.