Covid response one of UK’s worst ever public health failures according to a report by MPs.

[Zotter]

Sorry if this has been posted already, but couldn’t see a post about it.

A report by MPs headed by two former Conservative govt ministers came out today which says the covid response is one of UK’s worst ever public health failures.

Guardian write about it here www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A further Guardian article writes: ‘the failure to prevent tens of thousands of deaths during Britain’s brutal second wave of Covid infections was a more serious error than the timing of the first lockdown, senior scientists have told the Guardian, after a damning report by MPs on the handling of the pandemic. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/12/the-real-problem-is-the-repetition-of-mistakes-scientists-react-to-covid-enquiry?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

BBC have written an analysis on the report here www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58890472

There will be a lockdown once hospitals are overwhelmed and people dying in ambulances / at home because they can't get an ambulance.

I hope we don't get to that state but as far as I can see we're doing nothing to stop it. Masks in state schools and proper ventilation would be a really relatively minor inconvenience and would ensure schools stayed open. Instead they're probably going to deny kids a week's school because they've let it get out of control. They could have also vaccinated 12-15 over the summer, but didn't.

I have friends who live in NE USA, where they had a mask mandate (so wearing masks compulsory in indoor settings, including primary and secondary schools). Did they have a second lockdown? NO - because of the masks.

I'll never understand why those who supposedly care about the harms of lockdown are often so actively opposed to measures to prevent lockdown.

It makes no sense.

@theemperorhasnoclothes

There will be a lockdown once hospitals are overwhelmed and people dying in ambulances / at home because they can't get an ambulance.

I hope we don't get to that state but as far as I can see we're doing nothing to stop it. Masks in state schools and proper ventilation would be a really relatively minor inconvenience and would ensure schools stayed open. Instead they're probably going to deny kids a week's school because they've let it get out of control. They could have also vaccinated 12-15 over the summer, but didn't.

I have friends who live in NE USA, where they had a mask mandate (so wearing masks compulsory in indoor settings, including primary and secondary schools). Did they have a second lockdown? NO - because of the masks.

There is absolutely no science/facts to back up your claim that "masks in state schools......would ensure schools stayed open". If only it were that simple. In fact, the statistics etc show that masks play little, if any, part in controlling spread. Covid infections started rising as soon as lockdowns lifted and whilst we still had mask wearing, social distancing, etc. Masks "may" help reduce the spread, but to say that they'd "ensure schools stayed open" is just plain wrong.

The science suggests that mitigations like ventilation, masks, contact tracing, bubbles and other measures can keep schools open. No one thing alone can do it.

This is what the experts say - and just to be clear the UK and DfE are doing none of this, none of it. Even the vaccination is going very badly and slowly.

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/09/03/englands-schools-must-be-made-safe-an-open-letter-to-the-education-secretary/

The government has a duty to protect children, our wider communities, and the NHS and healthcare workers from the impact of a fourth wave following schools re-opening. We suggest a nine point plan to achieve this:

Offer vaccines to all 12-15 year olds, with roll-out in schools to maximise access and uptake.
Immediately reinstate face coverings for secondary school students and staff in classrooms and communal areas as long as community transmission remains high, with provision by your department of high grade masks to schools.
Urgently invest in both building ventilation and supplemental ventilation in schools by provision of air filtration devices as needed, with CO2 monitoring of indoor spaces to ensure that targets are met.
Reinstate bubbles, this time with appropriate maximum sizes to minimise educational disruption, while properly containing transmission.
Reinstate contact tracing by schools with a strict policy on mandatory isolation and PCR testing of all contacts of cases (in bubbles or households) to prevent onward spread.
Improve financial and practical support for self-isolation as this will improve uptake of rapid tests in schools.
Provide remote learning options and support, including wifi, tablets, and/or laptops for clinically vulnerable children, children living in households with clinically vulnerable members, and those required to self-isolate.
Remove mandatory attendance policies and prosecutions and fines for parents, so that a parent can make a choice of learning modality that is in the best interests of their child.
Provide mental health support in schools for students and staff.
The above measures should be implemented alongside multi-layered public health measures to reduce community transmission, which will also reduce the potential for outbreaks in educational settings, allowing children to remain in schools safely.

@theemperorhasnoclothes

I'll never understand why those who supposedly care about the harms of lockdown are often so actively opposed to measures to prevent lockdown.

It makes no sense.

It's not rational.

People who are both against lockdowns, and the proven NPIs that help avoid lockdowns have often suggested to me on here that all we need to do in order to "go back to normal" is just remove all covid control measures and stop reporting the numbers.

I'm an evidence- based logical sort of person.

After masks were no longer required in schools, cases amongst school children are higher than they have ever been.

Schools that bring masks back experience a reduction in covid absences.

That's enough for me to decide that masks help and are better than the alternative.

Which is watching cases spread from school kids to their parents and then to their grandparents again. The same as they always do if you let covid spread unrestricted for long enough.

Pre-vaccination it took three or four months to reach crisis point

Post vaccination it should take longer but the vaccines can't stop it on their own.

Re number of deaths, I have read the U.K. have 150,000 excess deaths. Cant find a link at the mo.

This Sky article from March, 21, says if you look at excess deaths, the UK in March, 21, had the 16th highest death toll in the world. It points out that while the UK may not be in the top 10, it is nonetheless facing far, far more fatalities than many other countries of comparable size and development.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-year-on-from-lockdown-watershed-moment-brings-some-relief-but-this-is-far-from-over-12254506

Agree PrincessNutsNuts. UK cases are so much higher than other EU cases currently. Germany, France, Spain, Italy are not going above 4000 cases daily, often much lower. U.K. has been 32,000-40,000 cases daily for a long time now. For 10 days or so a few weeks ago they went down to high twenties daily but didn’t last.

The EU countries with considerably lower cases all have masks mandates still including schools. Also if a household member is positive, the household must all isolate, including under 18 years . The U.K. since August, says a household member under 18 does not need to isolate unless they have symptoms and then test positive.

[quote Zotter]Re number of deaths, I have read the U.K. have 150,000 excess deaths. Cant find a link at the mo.

This Sky article from March, 21, says if you look at excess deaths, the UK in March, 21, had the 16th highest death toll in the world. It points out that while the UK may not be in the top 10, it is nonetheless facing far, far more fatalities than many other countries of comparable size and development.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-year-on-from-lockdown-watershed-moment-brings-some-relief-but-this-is-far-from-over-12254506[/quote]
We did, the second highest in Western Europe, there are multiple issues at play in that figure and that is why we will probably only be able to look at this properly in 10-20 years time.

We have one of the highest (in the top five I think) ages of death from Covid, other countries protected those in care homes a lot better, but as an example the life expectancy of someone in a care home in the UK is only 8 months anyway, so most would have died of something else in that same period if not from Covid. In theory our average deaths over a five year period should be almost flat (eg a rise now, a drop over the next 2-3 years). We also have the fattest population in Western Europe and it appears being overweight or obese has a significant impact on the outcome of a Covid infection, as well as higher rates of diabetes, alcoholic liver disease, drug addiction (Scotland has the highest rates of drug addiction and deaths in the world).

None of that means our public health response was handled well, it was not, but it does also mean that even in a best case scenario we might have at best delayed 10-20% of the Covid deaths by 6-12 months, or changed them to deaths by seasonal flu or pneumonia. The biggest issue with our ineffective public health response will actually be felt over the next few years, with deaths from what would have been treatable cancers, heart disease etc. likely to outstrip the deaths from Covid. This relates to the single minded focus on Covid as well as the low capacity (by the standards of a developed nation) in our health system, the inability to gain GP appointments, follow up testing etc. Germany and France have more than twice the per capita hospital beds than we have in the UK, this meant that whilst treating Covid they also managed to keep normal healthcare operating and so cancer diagnosis and treatment has faced little disruption compared to the UK. As an example the deaths from breast and cervical cancer are expected to rise by around 40% over the next five years due to delays in both diagnosis and treatment in the UK, where as in Germany they are expected to rise no more than five percent.

That is what I mean by deaths from Covid are not comparable from country to country, the public health response has been awful, but the deaths from Covid are firstly not comparable from country to country and secondly are in many cases not really relevant anyway, it it is the secondary factors that will have a far bigger impact in the medium to long term (and probably also in the short term).

delayed 10-20% of the Covid deaths by 6-12 months

Not helpful I know, but can’t write much more today, that I don’t have the data to hand, but I have seen that claim challenged with data.

The data I provided is comparing excess deaths amongst countries not Covid deaths.

Had the govt handled it better (and yes none were going to be perfect) there would have been shorter lockdowns and less people in hospital meaning there would be less backlog for treatment for other illnesses.

As I shared yesterday, scientists said to the Guardian: ‘the failure to prevent tens of thousands of deaths during Britain’s brutal second wave of Covid infections was a more serious error than the timing of the first lockdown’.

I find a lot of the comments on here quite depressing and ill-informed.

Can we all remember that the UK comprises 4 devolved nations and health is a devolved matter. So very happy for people to have a go at the Prime Minister but why not Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford and Arlene Foster (she was in charge for much of the time in question)? We’ve all ended up in pretty much the same place on care home deaths, education etc.

Ps would agree though with you our lower capacity (by the standards of a developed nation) in our health system will have contributed. I know obesity increases risks (of course not all obese will die, just increases risks) but have not looked at data estimating how that would be in numbers.

We have one of the highest (in the top five I think) ages of death from Covid, other countries protected those in care homes a lot better, but as an example the life expectancy of someone in a care home in the UK is only 8 months anyway, so most would have died of something else in that same period if not from Covid.

I do wish people would make it clear when talking about care homes, that they mean those for the elderly. The average life expectancy may well be 8 months, pulled down by the number of the elderly; but there are still thousands of people of working age in care homes for whom I doubt very much, life expectancy is only 8 months?

DD is in her 20s, and lives in a house with other young people, who look like they are also in their 20s. I imagine their life expectancy is decades?

However, the issues around care homes still apply to where she lives in parts - they were affected by a lack of PPE in the early months of Covid; we were sent a DNAR for her last April and unvaccinated staff are leaving rather than have the jab.

@Northernsoullover

They didn't think the public would comply with a lockdown. Everyone I know myself included locked down ahead of the incompetent government's advice

Agreed. My husband's large office closed 2 weeks before lockdown and we were avoiding supermarkets and shops from that date.

I think we’re about 40th on list when looking at excess deaths now. Up till about August iirc. And we’re likely to fall further as we had our delta surge earlier than other nations. So not brilliant but not the worst either. Even within Europe we’re fairly low down the list now compared with 2020.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/global-covid-death-toll-higher-pandemic

Interesting article here saying that many countries are likely to have deaths much higher than official figures say and countries like Italy and U.K. are unfairly considered to have performed worse.

@Northernsoullover

They didn't think the public would comply with a lockdown. Everyone I know myself included locked down ahead of the incompetent government's advice

But plenty didn't. In my small village, the village pub was absolutely heaving on the Friday evening, just after Boris's announcement that pubs would have to close that day. They were spilling onto the road outside, all wanting to fill their boots before the pub closed. The police had to come and instruct it to close due to the sheer number of drinkers blocking the road outside.

@sashagabadon

amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/global-covid-death-toll-higher-pandemic

Interesting article here saying that many countries are likely to have deaths much higher than official figures say and countries like Italy and U.K. are unfairly considered to have performed worse.

I haven’t read it but I think excess deaths in The Economist is better?

@sashagabadon

I think we’re about 40th on list when looking at excess deaths now. Up till about August iirc. And we’re likely to fall further as we had our delta surge earlier than other nations. So not brilliant but not the worst either. Even within Europe we’re fairly low down the list now compared with 2020.

Ha should have scrolled back one more ;

One thing I have mused on is with early lockdown how they North did actually have an earlier one on their curve v London and I think it made the year harder as it was prolonged.

Early is one part of it only - if you look at Eastern Europe that did do hard and early

That report only really considers deaths from covid. There are other other things that need to be considered - eg other deaths from other illnesses that were ignored because all that mattered was covid. The shutdown of dentistry. The ridiculous rules which were merely there to control the population and had nothing to do with reducing the incidence of covid (eg closing off car parks, sending drones after people out for walks and taping off "non-essential" aisles in supermarkets in Wales).

The received wisdom is that we locked down too late (both in March 2020 and January 2021) but there was a lot more wrong than the timing of the lockdowns.

Oh and the stupid rules around exercise and telling people to be scared of "virus-shedding joggers". We knew very early on that obesity was a risk factor for covid, so of course we made it harder for people to maintain and lose weight

Agreed. My husband's large office closed 2 weeks before lockdown and we were avoiding supermarkets and shops from that date.

My great grandfather had his own medical practice through the Spanish flu epidemic, so the family saw what happened then. My grandfather was saying in the 60s, there would be another global viral epidemic, which would kill millions. I doubt he was the only person in Public Health to think that, so why was the UK so unprepared? I've been expecting it all my life.

We knew as soon as we saw the first pictures of Wuhan, showing Chinese officials dragging citizens away, that it was coming here and it was serious - because it was obvious the Chinese knew how serious it was, otherwise they wouldn't have taken those measures!

We bought N95 masks in January, and DH started wearing his on the trains and in public places in February - we were told by a doctor, he should, because he was high risk with cardiovascular disease. We were also told to, by a friend, who used to work in civil defence.

I know many in London changed behaviour earlier but on the flip side many threads complaining that timing for lockdown was driven by SE not N

I also remember very early on Chris Whitty doing that chart and saying too early is not as good and people will get fatigued.

I think N shows the downside of early and long and fatigue.

Plus I listened to Cummings interview who seems to have managed to get his views centre to the report. Unelected and non scientist (and some would say with big opinion and lots to gain, not objective as ousted) I much prefer to hear from Vallance or Whitty.

I hope the public enquiry has a better process than this.

March was a catastrophe but the bigger one was winter. "Let the bodies pile high" and the farce over Christmas. Boris is a coward

@User135644

March was a catastrophe but the bigger one was winter. "Let the bodies pile high" and the farce over Christmas. Boris is a coward

Agree. He also most definitely had the benefit of hindsight. It made it longer and less beneficial.