Where does new data leave the idea of vaccine mandates and passports?

[Squleamish]

Usual disclaimers:

1. I am not an "anti-vaxxer" (far from it).

2. Vaccination is clearly beneficial for individuals to prevent severe illness and hospitalisation.

However...

It's increasingly clear that the jabs do little for transmission, despite early promises (and aggressive pressures on the basis of "social good").
Amongst other similar info:

• Pfizer's latest data shows just 20% reduction after 6 months, and reduction in efficacy against infection is clear after 3 months.
• PHE data has shown again that, per 100,000, the proportion of people infected with covid is (if anything), in most age groups, actually greater in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups.
• We've known for some time that viral loads are similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated, once people are infected.

Clearly it's complicated. Some have argued that the shorter duration of infection for vaccinated should mean lower transmission risk. Others have argued that less severe infections in vaccinated might mean greater risk of transmission (e.g., because people don't get tested). But overall, all this together indicates that (consistent with the the high rates in highly vaccinated nations) any effects of vaccination on transmission are minimal.

So WHY are we judging the unvaxxed, and mandating vaccination for health care workers. WHY are so many places (Canada, Australia, Lithuania...) making life so difficult for people who haven't been jabbed. Why all the coercion? How can this be medical, rather than political?

Well this is ridiculous because
Do you really think the anti vaxxers are as likely to test?? Plus they seem to live more in cities so had already, plus arent being careful so again already had it.
It does slow transmission because even if it only stops 50% of people catching it for eg thats 50% less eg in a family 1 parent not 2. So reducing r rate. Likewise in a crowded room 1 infected only half say going to catch it. Plus the obvious that the more vaxxed the less likely health service collapse so if you think we can only now have clubs open because some people have taken the vax.

PHE data has shown again that, per 100,000, the proportion of people infected with covid is (if anything), in most age groups, actually greater in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups.

This is just because there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated people overall, especially in the older age groups. Vaccinated people are not more likely to get ill.

All the clinical date still shows the vaccines are still preventing infections, and of course you can't transmit a virus if you don't have it.

*data not date

You have somehow omitted one very key statistical and scientific fact:

Vaccinated people are 3 times less likely to be positive for Covid in the first place.

Add on top a shorter infectious period

Add on top a lower viral load

You are left with a much lower risk of transmission.

@nordica

PHE data has shown again that, per 100,000, the proportion of people infected with covid is (if anything), in most age groups, actually greater in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups.

This is just because there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated people overall, especially in the older age groups. Vaccinated people are not more likely to get ill.

All the clinical date still shows the vaccines are still preventing infections, and of course you can't transmit a virus if you don't have it.

Nope. This is rate per 100,000 vaccinated vs 100,000 unvaccinated, so not affected by how many are and aren't vaccinated.

And add on that a booster boosts immunity by 19 times

@userabc

You have somehow omitted one very key statistical and scientific fact:

Vaccinated people are 3 times less likely to be positive for Covid in the first place.

Add on top a shorter infectious period

Add on top a lower viral load

You are left with a much lower risk of transmission.

None of these things has proved to be true, based on real world data or, in fact, on longer term data from trials.

@HSHorror

Well this is ridiculous because Do you really think the anti vaxxers are as likely to test?? Plus they seem to live more in cities so had already, plus arent being careful so again already had it. It does slow transmission because even if it only stops 50% of people catching it for eg thats 50% less eg in a family 1 parent not 2. So reducing r rate. Likewise in a crowded room 1 infected only half say going to catch it. Plus the obvious that the more vaxxed the less likely health service collapse so if you think we can only now have clubs open because some people have taken the vax.

As far as I can see, this is just conjecture.

Don’t really give a monkeys anymore. Fully vaccinated and getting on with life!

Actually @userabc, I will correct that. Sorry - I think it is true about the shorter period of infection for vaccinated (certainly in the short term). The other elements I don't think so.

@Mybalconyiscracking

Don’t really give a monkeys anymore. Fully vaccinated and getting on with life!

Yep, I can understand this. Except when you see what's going on in Canada/Australia, and think it could be coming here, does it not worry you? If not for you, for others?

@Mybalconyiscracking

Don’t really give a monkeys anymore. Fully vaccinated and getting on with life!

How about healthcare workers losing their jobs, in an already horrendously stretched system, for no good logical reason? Even if they've already had covid and so are far less likely to get it and pass it on that someone who's just had the vaccine? Does this not worry you?

Vaccination has bridged the gap between zero immunity and sufficient immunity to reduce serious illness and deaths. That’s all we needed to prevent healthcare meltdown.
Now we need to go back to normal.
The only ones who need to worry about Covid are the unvaccinated, by choice or for medical reasons.
I had Covid for a second time recently. It was somewhere between a bad cold and flu. Short lived and fully recovered. With an annual booster I’m happy to go back to normal.

How is it conjecture. Its a fact that the vaccines are preventing 60% az and around 80% pz infections....
And that if they dont catch it they arent spreading. If they do they are many times less likely to need meical care so again hugely less likely to spread round hospitals as they arent in hospital.
(You are wrong about these aspects but i do agree the passports are an issue as the vaccines wane over time. )

The uk has issues because we havent yet vaxxed teens. Because weve used AZ. Because cases are so high due to no mitigations (mainly should still have household isolation for a case
If vaccines werent reducing spread how do you explain the cases in uk and abroad? If they do reduce spread then surely encouragement to have them and fewer unvaxxed at very large inside gathering makes sense.

The non vaxxed do live in cities you can tell by the vax maps.
The cities like london have low covid rates (maybe already had it or not testing)
Once everyone including children are vaxxed the drop in effectiveness will matter less as less circulating. But it will only circulate less if people get vaccinated.
Some areas are only 50% over 16 vaxxed.
By far the highest rates are in unvaccinated children so the vaccines do stop people getting it

@HSHorror

How is it conjecture. Its a fact that the vaccines are preventing 60% az and around 80% pz infections.... And that if they dont catch it they arent spreading. If they do they are many times less likely to need meical care so again hugely less likely to spread round hospitals as they arent in hospital. (You are wrong about these aspects but i do agree the passports are an issue as the vaccines wane over time. )

The uk has issues because we havent yet vaxxed teens. Because weve used AZ. Because cases are so high due to no mitigations (mainly should still have household isolation for a case
If vaccines werent reducing spread how do you explain the cases in uk and abroad? If they do reduce spread then surely encouragement to have them and fewer unvaxxed at very large inside gathering makes sense.

How is it conjecture. Its a fact that the vaccines are preventing 60% az and around 80% pz infections....

Unfortunately, the point here is precisely that this is not a fact. Increasingly, data do not indicate that cases are being reduced very much at all by vaccination (cf. PHE data; Pfizer data; international case rates). It would be great if it were true, but it doesn't seem to be the case.

@Angrymum22

Vaccination has bridged the gap between zero immunity and sufficient immunity to reduce serious illness and deaths. That’s all we needed to prevent healthcare meltdown. Now we need to go back to normal. The only ones who need to worry about Covid are the unvaccinated, by choice or for medical reasons. I had Covid for a second time recently. It was somewhere between a bad cold and flu. Short lived and fully recovered. With an annual booster I’m happy to go back to normal.

I agree @Angrymum22. Once all those who want to be vaccinated for their own protection have been vaccinated, life needs to continue without restrictions. And those who want to can continue to have as many boosters as deemed necessary.

PHE data has shown again that, per 100,000, the proportion of people infected with covid is (if anything), in most age groups, actually greater in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups

These statistics were published by PHE but it was severely flawed because the denominator they were using for the unvaccinated population was probably far too high in certain age groups. They should never have put it out.

When using a more plausible figure for unvaccinated population the data suggests a significant reduction in likelihood of infection for all age groups.

I'll find a link.

Here you go.
fullfact.org/health/daily-sceptic-phe-over-40s/

I wish it would leave them firmly in the bin where they belong but people still seem to be clinging to them.

OP I agree with everything you've said.

Can you provide links to that, @Squleamish?

100% agree with everything OP said.

Where will it end? If it's proven natural immunity is better than vaccine immunity, why would someone get the vaccine after? Especially when the vaccine looses effectiveness after a few months. So after how long will a person be considered unvaccinated again once the vaccine effectiveness wears off? Then what? They'll be required to get a booster. And when that wears off, then what? How long will this have to go on for?

And for countries like Canada where it's now law to have the vaccine or you're denied access to theatres, restaurants, some jobs (including all government jobs) what will that mean? Will you be allowed in one week, but then not the next when they determine your vaccine is no longer effective and you need another?

It's all madness.

So how do you account for such high rates in under 19?
As supposedly kids catch it less. And yet of say 300k cases 120k were under 19.

OP I completely agree with you.

What I find concerning is what's now happening in Israel where the double vaccinated are having their covid passes rescinded because they haven't had the booster. Not surprisingly there have been protests against this.