What does covid becoming ‘endemic’ look like?

[WTAFFF]

I see this quite a lot, people saying that covid will likely become endemic by next spring. What does this actually mean in reality though? I get the sense that people think this will mean it becomes like a cold for everyone. Is this right?

Thanks in advance!

I am not an expert, but I think it’s about the level of the virus circulating versus the amount of “hosts” available. I don’t think it has anything to do with severity, although there’s a general understanding that viruses evolve to be less deadly, not more.

Chicken pox is a good example in the UK.

Endemic has nothing to do with severity, malaria is endemic in some parts of the world and you wouldn't want to catch that. It just means it is circulating in a population but at a fairly steady level - so not the massive peaks we have been seeing with covid. This is better than having peaks as it means the health service should cope. To get to endemic status you need lots of the potential hosts to be immune either from infection or by vaccination. The more contagious it is the more people you'd need to be immune.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/qz.com/2047815/is-covid-19-a-pandemic-or-an-endemic/amp/

This is a good read. However I can’t find a good explanation of when it ‘crosses over’ to endemic status. I think it’s when population immunity is high enough that cases drop and while covid still circulates, outbreaks of infection become more localised and easier to contain. Something like that.

Circulating in the population at a fairly constant level, meaning that the NHS and other services can cope.
Other endemic diseases in the UK include flu and chickenpox. Still serious for some people but not dangerous on a population level.

Crikey this just popped up in my Twitter feed apparently Addenbrookes queuing for admission in AE in the car park.

twitter.com/maripili279/status/1441335980716224519

Circulating in the population at a fairly constant level

It's very unlikely that it would be at a constant level, there are lots of endemic respiratory viruses and none of them have a constant level, they come in waves as both immunity wanes and environmental conditions advantage the virus.

This guy gives a bit of an explanation

twitter.com/ariskatzourakis/status/1359863858609999877?s=21