Can someone explain these graphs to me?

[WineGetsMeThroughIt]

This is a genuine question and I'm just trying to understand this, so apologies if the answer is really straightforward but, when looking at this graph - last Sept (end of Aug) we had virtually no deaths due to covid, and no one was vax'd. But this Sept when the majority of the population is vax'd deaths are sitting at just under 200 which is about early Nov levels last year which was the beginning of the autumn / winter wave. Same thing with cases, last Sept we saw (I'm guesstamating here) roughly 1000 cases, and this Sept when the majority of the population is vax'd cases are nearly 40,000 which is where they were right in the middle of the winter 3rd wave last year. This seems extremely high, especially when taking into consideration the number of people vaccinated and also the fact that children haven't even been at school taking lateral flow tests like they were at the end of the school year last term.

Is it all because of delta?

It’s partly Delta - it’s much more transmissible.

But it’s mostly that, this time last year, we were only three or four weeks past a tough - and heavily observed - lockdown. Remember the streets with no cars and the schools with no kids? That.

I am useless with graphs but last Sept we were just coming out of a big lock down

Ah ok. I honestly can't remember that far back (ADHD) so don't really remember what was going on last year lol. Thought we had a lockdown in March - May time, but my mind could be failing me lol. It often does

The key information is that deaths as a percentage of cases is way down now. That's what the vaccine does - decrease the chances of serious illness/death.

Last August/September there were still a lot of restrictions in place and we were coming out of a lockdown from the original variant but a lot of restrictions we in place - theatres/nightclubs/festivals/sporting events were all banned. Weddings etc, rules were still in place in hospitality around masks and social distancing and numbers for this were reduced. A very different landscape to now.

Just because they are the same months doesnt mean a comparison can be clearly made. There are so many different variables at play that the situations cannot be compared. Indeed really the only matching factors are the months of August and September

The percentrage of people dying and being hospitalised per positive case is now far lower, mostly because of 90% of 16+ being vaccinated

but the current prevalence of the virus is almost as high as it's ever been. Slight slowdown these last few days.

BTW those numbers are misleading they are reported numbers on 8th September. To get a true picture you have to look at numbers per week as certain days get far more deaths reported (Tuesdays are high because few registered at the weekend then they all get logged on mondays).
Avergage deaths per week is currently 110 which is really pretty high in my opinion. Yeah at the peak of the winter wave last year we got over 1 thousand a day for a brief period. But it doesn't take a genius to work out that if you have over 100 deaths per day for several weeks, that could end up being worse than in the highest peaks. However, vaccination seems (for now) to have stopped the massive increases of people into hospitals that we saw into hospitas in the first wave and last winter. So hospitals are dealing with less daily admissions but still quite a lot on a never ending basis.

I don't think the situation is very promising tbh. Once you throw flu and other winter issues into the mix the nhs could well have its worst winter ever.

@WineGetsMeThroughIt

Ah ok. I honestly can't remember that far back (ADHD) so don't really remember what was going on last year lol. Thought we had a lockdown in March - May time, but my mind could be failing me lol. It often does

you're right. Things eased in June and July a bit and then in September the whole tiers thing started and generally got worse until breaking point just after Christmas.

The new varient hit us, we didn't seem prepared for it. Kent one remember.. It built up and up..

Last summer people were mostly still being very careful - social distancing, only socialising outside, masks were worn inside, etc. And schools hadn't been in much, only a few weeks after the first lockdown then back into the long summer holidays.

It was a completely different time, you really can't compare the two.

What month it is is irrelevant as a point of comparison. Last September we were at the bottom of an infection wave , this September we are at a peak. For a comparison of infections/ hospitalisations/ deaths in this wave (post vaccinations) compared to the last wave (pre vaccination), these graphs are interesting/ helpful.

twitter.com/rp131/status/1436366392408920086?s=21