So, the latest Public Health England data show....

[Squleamish]

...that the vaccines do indeed seem to substantially reduce risk of hospitalisation and death. Excellent.

But they also show that for those in their 30s and 40s, the case rates were slightly higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated people. For 40-49s, for example it's 1116 cases per 100,000 for double-jabbed, and 880 per 100,000 for unjabbed. Not so excellent.

Combine this with the data showing that when you're infected, your viral load is the same whether unjabbed or jabbed, and the effects on transmission aren't looking great.

So - the vaccines are still a very good idea for individual adults. Get jabbed and you're less likely to need NHS care for Covid, and less likely to die from Covid.
But there's an ever-diminishing case for vaccinations doing anything much at all to reduce transmission or development of variants.

So can we please stop all the fighting, and calling the unjabbed selfish? They might be unwise, but they're only selfish to the extent that people who don't exercise or eat too much are selfish - they may use NHS resources more, but that's it.

@Squleamish

(sorry, this pattern is for those in their 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s, by the way. For those 18-30 and 30-40, case rates are greater in unvaccinated than vaccinated)

People in their 40s and 50s are more likely to have unvaccinated school age children and young adults (higher % unvaccinated) in the home.

@sirfredfredgeorge

*Unfortunately the twitter doesn't show the adjustments made, but the unvac rate for 40-49 year olds went from ~850 to ~2000, or suggesting that the unvaccinated population in the age group is less than half the size, the coronavirus data page has about 80% vaccinated, if that 20% is actually proportional the adjustment, then that means coverage is already over 90%."

The dashboard already uses the ONS 2020 population as its denominator for the UK %, not NIMS, so it doesn't need adjusting.

(Which begs the question why does the PHE still use NIMS, when we know it has issues, but there we go!)

The dashboard already uses the ONS 2020 population as its denominator for the UK %, not NIMS, so it doesn't need adjusting

They use that for the general one, but...

"The denominator used is the number of people on the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) database"

Is what it says on "Vaccination uptake, by vaccination date age demographics" heatmap I got the figure from.

However I did use the first dose not second stupidly, but that different is only ~5% off before the adjustment.

I stand (well, sit) corrected!