Flu is roaring back in India

[Kokeshi123]

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/the-flu-wave-several-people-in-different-parts-of-india-are-currently-down-with-flu-like-symptoms/articleshow/85480930.cms

Apologies if I sound like a stuck record--I know I mentioned this on another thread here. But scientists are getting really worried about what will happen as the flu comes back, which it inevitably will. India is already seeing an unseasonably early outbreak. The world is likely to have unusually low immunity levels because the flu was almost absent last year; normally, the virus buzzes around and we all get exposed a little bit, even if we didn't actually "come down with" the flu. People who did not get the vax last year will have low immunity levels. This is likely to mean increased severity, and possibly an outbreak earlier than the usual flu season.

All countries need to start getting their act together now: get the flu jabs up and running ASAPeven countries in the southern hemisphere. And I'd urge everyone here to get the flu jab and encourage everyone they know to do the same, as soon as it's availableeven people who wouldn't normally get the vaccine.

I'm actually more nervous about this than about COVID right now.

I've booked DH, me and DD1 in at a local pharmacy in few weeks - but I'm now waiting to see if it gets canceled due to supply issues.

DD1 and I will get it free - both have asthma. DH wouldn't normally be done by he's now late 40 on trains and in lecture theatre and labs so I think I'll be trying to get him done as well from now on.

I think they're supposed to do secondary children this year in school - whch means I won't have to spend next three months fighting with GP to get asthmatic DS done as I have in previous years.

Most of my older relatives who'd often be booked in by now are waiting to see what's going on with covid boosters as there's talk of them being doen at the same time.

How good the flu vaccine is varies year to year on how well matched it is with predominate strains - I think it's been harder to match this year due to really low levels so still need good hygine measures on top of jabs.

@Realyorkshiretea

On a related side note has anyone else had the AWFUL summer Black Death cold that’s going round at the moment?

I’ve had plenty of colds before, but this was something else! Chills, streaming eyes and nose, sinuses practically swollen shut, lasted for weeks - just awful. 2 months later and I’m still not 100% myself.

Yes!

Whole family. We have all tested negative for Covid twice. I was convinced it was Covid, it was worse than any cold I've had before.

Those in the southern hemisphere had theirs not too long ago, we can't get another one just yet surely.

Sorry, I didn't express myself very well-what I meant was, there may need to be a drive to jab the people who didn't get a jab several months ago, in case there is an out-of-season outbreak in the warmer months in Aus. Where there are low levels of immunity, viruses which are "supposed" to be seasonal often become unseasonal (this is effectively what we now see with COVID-once it becomes endemic it will probably be seasonal, but right now it is all over the place). Hence India getting an outbreak starting in.... late August, it appears. I don't know what the flu jab tkeup rate is in Australia, but if it's anything like every other country I know, I assume it's far from 100% even among the elderly, and probably much lower among the rest of the population. But it may be a good idea to start vaccinating more widely this year.

www.9news.com.au/national/influenza-vaccine-warning-as-number-of-aussies-seeking-flu-shot-falls-by-almost-half-from-2020/11e65b73-1283-4ef2-adaa-81bd67eb9ed5 Oh wow-the takeup rate for the flu jab in Oz (which is normally very highmore than 70% of Ozzies of working age got the jab in 2020!) has actually gone down in 2021. I wonder why?

But of course low immunity levels towards flu is not just an Australian thing---it's going to be in basically every country.

@Realyorkshiretea With a PCR it's unlikely, although not impossible. Maybe just a really nasty other virus then. Perhaps another coronavirus! But they are absolutely the symptoms my friends who've had it recently (post-vaccination) have had.

I’m more nervous about flu than Covid having been incredibly ill with it in 2004 when I was early 20s. My dc have flu vaccines booked at school for October

My surgery said yesterday it will be at least a fortnight before there is any vaccine at all for our practice. I am concerned, I have what has previously been well controlled asthma, I have had 3 episodes in the last year of low oxygen levels and needed a course of steroid tablets in May. I haven’t had an asthma review for 2 years due to COVID.

I caught flu a few years back when they didn’t get the correct strains in the vaccine and was in bed for a week and delirious with fever and I am certainly in much poorer health than I was then.

@Realyorkshiretea interesting. DS9 had something in July which absolutely wiped him out, and he's normally pretty robust when it comes to bugs. It was the most ill I've ever seen him and we were certain it was COVID, but the PCR was negative. We believe he got it from his best friend, who just had a bit of a snotty nose. His friend was in school throughout as his parents are keyworkers.

@Realyorkshiretea are you in Yorkshire?

We are and all had Covid at beginning of August. Both DC young adults have just had a stinking cold very similar to what you describe but didn’t test positive. When we had the covid home tests picked up once symptoms got going

@AuntieJoyce not in Yorkshire, in Deep South, just love yer tea

Sorry do you mean the tests turned positive for you?

[quote JesusInTheCabbageVan]@Realyorkshiretea interesting. DS9 had something in July which absolutely wiped him out, and he's normally pretty robust when it comes to bugs. It was the most ill I've ever seen him and we were certain it was COVID, but the PCR was negative. We believe he got it from his best friend, who just had a bit of a snotty nose. His friend was in school throughout as his parents are keyworkers.[/quote]
Yes it really, really wasn’t like a normal cold was it - for us the snottiness was there but my entire face/head felt swollen, even my eyes hurt. So grim, especially in the heat. I’m hoping we will get a deep freeze this winter to kill some of the bugs off - mild & rainy is a recipe for germs

DS has his smack bang in the middle of the heatwave. It was horrible!

@isthismylifenow

Those in the southern hemisphere don't have the option to have the flu jab now. It's only available around March going into winter

I live in the Southern Hemisphere; I had a flu shot last week.

@Kokeshi123

www.9news.com.au/national/influenza-vaccine-warning-as-number-of-aussies-seeking-flu-shot-falls-by-almost-half-from-2020/11e65b73-1283-4ef2-adaa-81bd67eb9ed5 Oh wow-the takeup rate for the flu jab in Oz (which is normally very highmore than 70% of Ozzies of working age got the jab in 2020!) has actually gone down in 2021. I wonder why?

But of course low immunity levels towards flu is not just an Australian thing---it's going to be in basically every country.

I'd suggest it's because a great deal of the population have been locked down in the period we would normally go and get our flu shots - from the doctor or, more commonly, the pharmacy. That's the reason I didn't get mine earlier this year and I collected a nasty bout of flu for my laziness. I've had the shot now 🙂

@isthismylifenow

Those in the southern hemisphere don't have the option to have the flu jab now. It's only available around March going into winter

I imagine places like NZ and parts of Australia are going to be hit very hard... Their strict quarantines to keep Covid out will have kept all other illnesses out too. The longer they isolate, the worse it will be. If places like India are suffering - which has hardly been the model for restricting Covid transmission - it appears to be an alarming prospect for those many others!

@alwayscrashinginthesamecar1

I'm in the Southern Hemisphere and got my flu jab in March which is Autumn here. Why would I need another now it is spring?

Flu is largely only seasonal because we had reached a point of endemic equilibrium with it, meaning that background immunity was enough with environmental factors to push the R below 1 in warmer months. That endemic equilibrium has now been substantially eroded.... There have been various occasions where new flu strains have hit outside the traditional flu season.

@Lostinacloud

I read that the return of the flu in India demonstrates that covid in now endemic so in some ways it’s almost a good thing to signal the end of the pandemic. Last year covid was the most virulent seasonal respiratory virus and this year, in India at least, perhaps flu is taking over as most virulent.

That's a very good point... Conditions that allow flu to spread are similar to Covid... So if flu cases are the problem rather than Covid, it's actually a very good sign that India has reached a steady equilibrium regarding Covid with cases around 10% of what they were at their peak and remaining steady.

It's worth pointing out that flu jabs take the edge of cases and deaths... by about 50% in a typical year, but sometimes as low as 10% where the virus mutations deviate significantly from the vaccine.

The 50% represents cases requiring medical attention rather than severe illness or death.

Our chemist just got flu jabs today. If you are eligible for a free NHS flu jab you don't have to wait for a doctor's invite you can go to a chemist that offers them and book an appt.

[quote Realyorkshiretea]@AuntieJoyce not in Yorkshire, in Deep South, just love yer tea

Sorry do you mean the tests turned positive for you?[/quote]
I should have known that as people in Yorkshire drink Tetleys. It’s all a marketing ploy by Yorkshire tea

I was very unclear wasn’t I? What I meant was is that my DC have had Covid and then have gone on to get a really bad cold a month later which had similar symptoms but not quite as bad. I’m confident the cold was a cold as the Covid tests we had taken were pretty unanimous a month before

Well I'm getting my flu jab next week at boots I booked it over a month ago I hope they won't cancel it.

@PieMistee

Suzi I am not sure you understand how the immune system works.

No shit Sherlock

Realyorkshiretea
My colleague had similar symptoms to you he had 3 negative LF tests. I insisted he went to the drive through centre for another test. It was positive. He has just come back to work 3 weeks later. No doubt he passed Covid around generously before he had the positive test.

I read that the return of the flu in India demonstrates that covid in now endemic so in some ways it’s almost a good thing to signal the end of the pandemic.

I've heard that too, but I think it's just one theory being bandied about.

Personally, I'm skeptical because it seems like whenever a place or country has been proposed as being the place where "herd immunity/endemic equilibrium" has been reached, no sooner is this suggested than the virus immediately starts going haywire in that region all over again! It's like there is some kind of Voldemort-like jinx over those particular words.

I think COVID still has a long way to run in India: there is little immunity still in the countryside and small towns. But we'll see.