Does reducing severity increase transmission?

[Donatella]

I'm hesitant to post this as I don't want it to be derailed by arguments over vaccines/lock downs, but I had a thought yesterday - if vaccination reduces severity of the illness, could that lead to more people with mild symptoms not realising they could have coicd, therefore not testing, therefore going out and about as normal, and therefore increasing spread? Or does the reduction in transmission cancel this out? I don't have an agenda one way or another, its more of an academic question but I'm curious as to what others think.

Definitely a risk that those who have no symptoms or are mild, don’t get tested, but just as likely to pass it on.

Hi OP,
I can see exactly what you mean and I'd assumed that this is why we're now seeing lots of cases and far fewer deaths. Lots of vaccinated people spreading covid without enough symptoms to make them feel ill.

I think it might also be impacted by the fact that the symptoms list on the gov/NHS website is quite limited and hasn't changed to include more common symptoms of Delta. So people will look at this and go oh well I don't have one of the 3 symptoms so think they can't or don't need to get a test. Repeated isolations, pressure from employers and risk of loss of income is also a factor.

Absolutely... If symptoms are milder, people are less likely to feel the need to take precautions generally. Was at a theme park last week and almost everyone was behaving as though we were living pre-Covid - no distancing, no masks - inside and out - nothing. I know some will be aghast at this, but I felt it was refreshing, thousands no longer acting in fear of Covid.

Yes for sure. Also LFTs are not very good, so people may just use them rather than get a PCR and get negative results when they are actually positive. I have Covid currently and I did a LFT on the same day as my PCR, LFT was negative and PCR was positive.

@Waxonwaxoff0 Yes lots using LFTs even workplaces for close contacts. If testing negative then it's business as usual.

Yes I think thats a valid worry - people who are hit hard by it and are in bed for a week are automatically not out and about in that week spreading it around.

I think that getting people to stop their lives because of a barely noticeable illness is a very hard sell. I get mild headaches, slightly raised temperature and dry throat every month a few days before my period for example. I barely notice it now, just drink more water and carry on.

I understand what you mean about mild cases, but fewer vaccinated people are also catching covid so they can't spread it if they don't have it.

If you compare case numbers now and back in January, it's clear to see the vaccines are working - in January we'd had restrictions for weeks and cases and hospitalisations were really high. Now we have no restrictions and a large proportion of the population is vaccinated. A lot of the current cases are in the younger age groups who are not vaccinated (or fully vaccinated) yet.

I agree. In hindsight I felt tired and had a very minor throat tickle a few days before I thought of testing.
However-I’m assuming people are still infectious before they show any symptoms at all?
And further to that, if I hadn’t been vaccinated would I have felt worse quicker? I’ve had none of the classic symptoms (and so far don’t feel that bad) and I only tested because DD had a temperature!

Yeah I've been saying this for ages. I could see how the behaviour of the older people I know who were all double vaxxed first changed as soon as they were vaccinated. I dont think many people understood the limitations of the vaccines.

If you compare case numbers now and back in January, it's clear to see the vaccines are working - in January we'd had restrictions for weeks and cases and hospitalisations were really high. Now we have no restrictions and a large proportion of the population is vaccinated.

No it isn't. Cases here in Scotland are higher than ever, way higher than the January peak. And we're only just out of level zero and still have mandatory masks and social distancing.
How exactly are the vaccines working if more people than ever are currently infected? . Particularly as people, on here anyway, keep saying how vaccines "massively reduce transmission". They don't seem to be doing that.