1 in 3 with Covid don’t have symptoms

[baffledcoconut]

That’s the message on the NHS text... for me thinking.. does that mean for every positive test there are 2 other people who haven’t tested and have Covid.

So, the 150 who tested positive this weekend in my town means actually there are roughly 450 with Covid.

Or am I barking up entirely the wrong tree?

Oh ffs.

I’m such an idiot.

I meant to say: for the 150 who tested positive there are 50 others who are walking round with no symptoms.

Fuck sake my maths is shocking. I’m blaming the exhaustion.

I’ve always taken it that way, yes. The case numbers are only confirmed cases, obviously.

Can we now ignore my maths as it’s so horribly wrong is now embarrassing.

I’m going back under my rock.

@Whathefisgoingon you username is so apt right now.

That's what lateral flow tests are for. If people test twice a week, then hopefully a reasonable number of symptomless cases will be picked up.

I wonder what proportion of the population are doing the lateral flows...

We probably only do catch about a third of cases due to a combination of asymptomatic cases, cases without the three testable symptoms, false negatives on PCRs and people not PCR testing for various reasons (negative LFT, "it's definitely only a cold", not being able to afford time off work, covid isn't serious etc etc).

if who test twice a week?

I would imagine the 1 in 3 are being picked up by LFTs, otherwise how would anyone know the are positive?
The question is are many others walking around with covid and no symptoms? If they're not being tested how would we know?

ive worked as a retail manager working directly with the general public.....we've been fully open the entire time

not done a single test yet, neither have many of my colleagues

But how many without symptoms bother to test?

When my family got it 2 were asymptomatic and 1 had the symptoms. Also there is a huge variety in the type of symptoms from runny nose to holed up in bed for a week. I bet most people with the very mild symptoms ignore them.

I reckon your general idea is right. That there is a huge amount of asymptomatic spread of covid. Probably more now as so many people become vaccined. They can still spread it without getting sick.

I tested positive for Covid on Saturday and am completely asymptomatic. I went for a PCR because a colleague I work in the same room with tested positive. I think the idea is that people should do regular lateral flow tests to pick up asymptomatic cases, but I did 2 lateral flows just before my PCR and both were negative so I doubt the accuracy.

In my household of 3 there were 2 of us with symptoms, obvious symptoms that we knew was Covid pretty much straight away (I’m 44 and double jabbed and DS age 17 not vaccinated). DD age 13 was a symptomatic - apart from a headache, not something we would have tested for

My children are school age and I work in retail with customers who tended to be a mix of elderly and vulnerable people and tourists from a widespread area, and a high proportion of colleagues who are either clinically vulnerable themselves or carers for someone who is vulnerable, so I've been doing lateral flow tests twice a week since late December apart from the times we've been in lockdown. My employers don't make us do tests, but it is strongly encouraged.

1 in 3 not having symptoms means that for every 100 that do have symptoms and are positive, 50 more are positive and don’t have symptoms.

However, this is a different stat from those who’ve tested positive and make up the case numbers. Of 100 random people who test positive, 33% of those won’t have symptoms. But because those with symptoms are more likely to test, probably there’ll be fewer asymptomatic in a ‘real world’ group of positives.

I would imagine the 1 in 3 are being picked up by LFTs, otherwise how would anyone know the are positive?

This isn’t how it works. Scientific studies, the earliest of them done in Wuhan last Jan/Feb, showed that a third of those testing positive didn’t have symptoms.

These studies have been accepted by the scientific community (after looking at things like how many people were involved, allowing for other factors, etc) as being representative of any group of people with Covid.

I know in schools lots of kids test positive with few to no symptoms. I’ve known of a couple of adults test positive with no symptoms - but most then develop some symptoms a few days later.

I would say the sheer number of teenagers and young children with no symptoms means this statistic is probably true

The lateral flow tests are absolutely useless. My husband has Covid and he did a last flow that showed up positive. Went for a PCR which confirmed. He has been isolating from us in the house, windows kept open etc since then. I have shown no symptoms and taken an LFT everyday which have all been negative. Went for a PCR ahead of rules changing on Monday and I am positive. Did another LFT and it is still negative!

My husband had cold like symptoms, not one of the main ones at all. The three main symptoms have been pushed so much I think if people do have cold like symptoms many won't test on account of it "being a cold" it won't even occur to many it could be Covid I don't think.

This is not news, and the nearest we've had to admission from the Prime Minister that he was slow to react in March 2020 was when he said he wished he'd known sooner about asymptomatic transmission.

Has it actually been shown that a third of people are fully asymptomatic? I thought there was some debate over the proportion of those who were actually pre-symptomatic at the time of testing, as opposed to asymptomatic for the entire duration of their infection.

@MarchingOnTogether

I would imagine the 1 in 3 are being picked up by LFTs, otherwise how would anyone know the are positive? The question is are many others walking around with covid and no symptoms? If they're not being tested how would we know?

The ONS are testing a representarive sample of people regularly whether or not they have symptoms. I imagine this is extrapolated. Also as Pps have said, earlier studies e.g. the cruise ship in the early days.

Yes good point @Walkaround.