What percentage of pinged people go on to develop covid?

[WrongKindOfFace]

I can’t find any figures? Does anyone know the answer?

No but I bet it is very low tbh. People seem to get pinged at times and places that make no sense whatsoever.

Must be very small.
I tried a back of envelope way to guess at it.

90% of people getting PCR tests don't have covid. I'd guess smaller than that positivity among the pinged.

Only 10 million have downloaded the app.

Assume 50% have since deleted it...
That means 5 million still have it
Pretend we know they are all age 16+
People age 16+ in England = about 43 million

About 100k/day people were pinged in week ending 21.7.21.

5/43 million = 11.6%

21,000 new cases in England on 1 August (says Google/Statista).

11.6% of 21,000 = 2436

That makes me guess that 2.436% of the 100k people pinged got covid.

I think they said people were five times more likely to develop covid after being pinged compared to those who haven't been? Obviously the chances of anyone developing covid at any given time are still low, on a population level.

I'd love to know this stat too. Anecdotally/intuitively, it's virtually none.

Somewhat related (and similar value) stat here:

“The researchers said that even if double-jabbed people come into contact with someone who has Covid-19, only one in 25 (3.84%) will go on to catch it themselves.”

www.itv.com/news/2021-08-04/covid-double-vaccinated-half-as-likely-to-be-infected-according-to-study

Am impressed with your calcs @lljkk !!!

56 million people in England.
100k pings/day
21,000 cases/day

Risk of being a case each day = 21k/56million = 1 in 2667
If being pinged means 5x higher risk, that means 1 in 533

or about 0.5%

(unless I did math wrong, perfectly possible)

Thanks all.

I’m surprised there isn’t any proper research.

6% compared to 6.9% with manual tracing last autumn. That won’t be delta or even alpha though.

Can’t find more recent figures than that although there are figures for how many cases and hospitalisations it’s prevented in July around in most of the articles talking about how the settings are changing. That seems to have come from Javid but I don’t know where the figures came from.