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Original poster

Is there any point in looking at case numbers now

36 replies

CarlaH · 01/08/2021 16:16

I sometimes look at the map that shows how many cases there are in the different counties.

Today I noticed that most of the map has turned blue rather than red which it was when I last looked a week or so ago.

All I keep hearing about are the number of people who have got covid. Some vaccinated some not.

All through i have made decisions about going out to shops and stuff by looking at how many cases there are here but now I think that so many people aren't testing because they don't want their holidays and other things cancelled so I can't rely on the figures.

Don't know how to make decisions about going out and about now. I guess it isn't going to get any easier is it?

OP posts:
Againstmachine · 01/08/2021 16:32

I don't let a online map tell me whether to go out or not.

That's on you.

Original poster
CarlaH · 01/08/2021 16:38

Of course its on me but I am saying I don't know what the risks are do I.

It might not have been perfect but at least while people were testing properly it helped.

Now this place is full of people telling other people not to bother testing because then they might not be able to do something social that they want to.

OP posts:
Tuba437 · 01/08/2021 16:38

Cases arr pointless now. The only number that is relevant is cases in hospital (those admitted because of covid not catching it in there). As long as we know how many symptomatic cases are around that result in hospitalisatipn, we can get abgood grasp of the risk level.

Tuba437 · 01/08/2021 16:40

Sorry big thumbs, typing on a phone are not good for spelling haha

siestalady · 01/08/2021 16:41

@CarlaH

Of course its on me but I am saying I don't know what the risks are do I.

It might not have been perfect but at least while people were testing properly it helped.

Now this place is full of people telling other people not to bother testing because then they might not be able to do something social that they want to.

Are you double vaccinated? Are you CEV? If the answers to that are yes and no, then just go out. Seriously.

Until covid did you worry about how "safe" things were or what the risk was?

Life has never (and will never) be without risk.

Original poster
CarlaH · 01/08/2021 16:46

I have been vaccinated and yes I have always been an anxious person.

Plenty of people on here spouting the life is a risk line but it really doesn't help.

I felt happier when I could assess my own risk thank you but now thanks to all the people telling others not to bother with tests thats more difficult now.

Thanks Tuba I suppose I will just have to look at hospital figures now but I don't suppose there's a handy map for that.

OP posts:
Overthebow · 01/08/2021 17:49

This is life now. There’s no restrictions and of course people are going to test less as covid isn’t priority in people’s lives anymore. How long did you expect everyone to keep testing for?

TheKeatingFive · 01/08/2021 17:56

Plenty of people on here spouting the life is a risk line but it really doesn't help.

Why not? Do you also worry about things like RTAs, other kinds of accidents, illnesses that aren’t covid?

If you’re youngish, relatively healthy and double jabbed your risk is really small. You’re probably at more risk crossing the road.

IcedPurple · 01/08/2021 18:00

Plenty of people on here spouting the life is a risk line but it really doesn't help.

It's true though, isn't it? Everything in life is risky. People's risk assessments vary widely, and aren't neccessarily logical or rational. What you might consider an unacceptable risk might seem trivial to someone else, and vice versa.

I felt happier when I could assess my own risk thank you but now thanks to all the people telling others not to bother with tests thats more difficult now.

Do you know this is actually happening though? Or is it something you read on MN?

Neondisco · 01/08/2021 18:04

@Againstmachine

I don't let a online map tell me whether to go out or not.

That's on you.

Wow that's so pointlessly unhelpful. Ffs

Anyway op....I think you can still use it as an indication. But I've also been thinking about this. Especially as younger people will be getting it as they're unvaccinated. They often don't show symptoms and with schools, college and uni being off they aren't testing regularly. So there's likely a bigger number of undetected cases.

So I'd say the map won't give a full picture, but it's the info we have available.

Tuba437 · 01/08/2021 18:07

You can say it doesn't help but it is the truth. We don't ban smoking even though thousands die every year. We don't ban flights even though planes crash We don't ban cars even though people die. Once you are double vaxes your personal chance of serious illness is similar to the flu... thats how you have to look at it.

Againstmachine · 01/08/2021 18:09

Wow that's so pointlessly unhelpful. Ffs

Since never before in history have people been consulting online maps, consulting them is unhelpful, go out don't go out.

Quartz2208 · 01/08/2021 18:12

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Can tell you exactly how many are in individual hospital trusts etc

Hospital numbers have stabilised which does back up that it is no longer growing

I also think it is LFT that have been stopped so the asymptomatic cases - the ones we have only really been picking up anyway since January

Floralcoral · 01/08/2021 18:13

I think eventually less access to case numbers will help people like yourself OP. It's unlikely you risk assess every situation that could possible arise before leaving the house, otherwise you'd never leave as all of the time would be spent scrolling stats. Keep your distance when out, wash hands when back and do what you can to minimise the risk to yourself, but stop using figures on a screen that have never been 100% accurate to dictate your life.

Neondisco · 01/08/2021 18:22

@Againstmachine

Wow that's so pointlessly unhelpful. Ffs

Since never before in history have people been consulting online maps, consulting them is unhelpful, go out don't go out.

Well suppose we haven't had a fucking pandemic like this before since we've had the Internet.

You've clearly got some axe to grind re covid.

TheKeatingFive · 01/08/2021 18:26

Well suppose we haven't had a fucking pandemic like this before since we've had the Internet.

No and we have to acknowledge that the masses of data available to us may not be particularly helpful in some ways. Availability bias has meant that many totally over estimate their personal covid risks.

Againstmachine · 01/08/2021 18:29

*Well suppose we haven't had a fucking pandemic like this before since we've had the Internet.

You've clearly got some axe to grind re covid.*

Nope I expect people to apply common sense this virus isn't dangerous to most.

Remmy123 · 01/08/2021 18:44

Don't let a map dictate your day - move on!!!!

BoomChicka · 01/08/2021 20:19

Why do you think people aren't testing?

Neondisco · 01/08/2021 20:19

@Againstmachine

*Well suppose we haven't had a fucking pandemic like this before since we've had the Internet.

You've clearly got some axe to grind re covid.*

Nope I expect people to apply common sense this virus isn't dangerous to most.

Honestly I can't even be arsed.

One last thing while I'm typing... It may not be dangerous to most, but if you are one of those it is dangerous to, which you can't really know as it would likely be vaccine failure, then you're fucked. So better have a little caution?

I don't feel there is much arguing with people like you though. So I'll leave it and enjoy watching the Olympics.

Theunamedcat · 01/08/2021 20:26

@BoomChicka

Why do you think people aren't testing?
Because they arnt secondary schools are out now so no asymptomatic cases from there will be picked up People who need negative lft before going into venues are screenshot and shared People are deleting the app so they don't get "pinged" and because this new variant is milder for most a lot of people arnt noticing they have it 🤷‍♀️
3asAbird · 01/08/2021 20:34

I believe the official stats are drop in the ocean right now.
They have never fully shown all the cases.
Zoe app has cases 50 to 60 k a day based on symptoms.
Nhs refuses to change official symptoms
So less testing as people don't know the right symptoms or have to lie to get a test.
People on holidays
Kids off school .
Maybe some waiting until 16th when non isolating starts.

BoomChicka · 01/08/2021 20:38

I'm not sure I agree that that would cause a "fake" drop in cases. I'm sure 99% of workplaces will require an obviously symptomatic employee to do a PCR, so if teens were super spreading covid it would very quickly pass to the parents and into their workplaces and be picked up.

MrsSkylerWhite · 01/08/2021 20:39

No, hasn’t been for a while. Hospitalisation/death figures are what matter.

amicissimma · 01/08/2021 21:15

The map is for the seven days before 5 days ago. So it doesn't give you much idea of the situation in your area today. Likewise it takes most people at least a week to need to go to hospital and the admissions figure is for 5 days previously.

The Zoe figures are an extrapolation from individuals' reports which vary in accuracy according to how many people are reporting in a given area.

If you know that 10 of your neighbours took to their beds yesterday with Covid, that would tell you that someone local was spreading it a few days ago, otherwise avoid crowded, poorly ventilated places and get on with your life. What else can you do, realistically?

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