The Zoe App expert

[VaccineAnxiety]

Not sure what his name is but it’s the individual who does all the seminar and YouTube in relation to Zoe. Why is he so reluctant to accept that the cases are down? The reasons for this might be debatable- vaccine success (yet to be verified), schools out (possible contributor), many not testing (possible) to name a few but he seems almost unhappy to acknowledge that the cases are down…

Presumably because it goes against medical expectation and it’s unusual for all areas to be showing a decrease. Doesn’t mean the stats are wrong or that record numbers of people previously isolating will cause an increase in the coming weeks though.

You cba to search for his name?

They're being cautious as to the reasons, believing one reason for the decline in cases coincides with schools closing for summer. Presumably in 6 weeks, we'll see a rise.

The expert is Tim Spector. He said he's broadly in favour of opening up society now though.

@FlibbertyGiblets don’t think his name is that important-knowing it or not knowing it doesn’t change the context of my post

Just seems a bit disrespectful to not use his name in a post about him.

I genuinely don't know who you are on about. So I can't look up what he's being saying to say if I agree, disagree, want more info.
You are having a one sided convo. Most peculiar on a talkboard to proffer an opinion on an opine without showing what the opine is...

@FlibbertyGiblets you could have ignored the post..why waste your time?

It’s Tim Spector op.

@HeddaGarbled agreed it comes across disrespectful- that wasn’t my intention
I was more focused on why the experts cannot allow a glimmer of home to come in after months of doom and gloom

The person I’m referring to is Tim Spector from the Zoe App

Well yes you do make a point but still, why are you wasting time refuting my comments when you could look up this bloke and tell us his name so that we can chat about how what he says matches what we know (or don't know!), it could be interesting to see different views. Oh well, sorry for my lack of being able to intuit the identity of the person in question. Have a nice day.

I would say it’s because experts, particularly in the medical or scientific fields, are a cautious bunch. They have enough learned experience to understand that one data set isn’t enough to draw a reliable conclusion and require more evidence than an average person to go into full on celebration mode.

It’s the same way a doctor can give someone the news they’re in remission for an illness but will still require follow up checks.

He is concerned that noone can put a finger on why it is happening. He isnt disputing the cases recorded by the government are decreasing fast, but he wants a reason or explanation for the rapid, unpredicted, decrease.
When something unexpected happens, the first thing scientists often do is repeat the experiment to see if an error has occured somewhere. In this case that isnt possible, but he is cautious about the rate of decline "just being" and trying to figure out what else might be behind the numbers.

Scientists by their nature question data: especially if it’s unexpected or surprising. And we are seeing a pattern that wasn’t expected YET so it’s understandable that some scientists will want to understand the whys of the pattern. Some of which might be less good news. I’ve not see Tim talking about this but the Zoe app did an incredible job of spotting patterns in symptoms before gov stats picked them up esp I the early days. So I would want to listen at least to his perspective. Personally I’m hopeful, but cautiously so and with an eye to the fact that factors other that cases decreasing may be driving decreasing cases iykwim!

He's not convinced cases are really falling because from the data put into the Zoe app daily their data is showing 60,000 + cases per day.

All the way through the pandemic the Zoe figures and Gov figures have been broadly similar. Now they are very different and there isn't a clear reason.

Personally I think it's the schools closing and less lateral flow tests of secondary aged children. It was absolutely rife in that age group before the end of term. My daughter's Secondary had to move to all school online learning for the last week as practically every pupil was either positive or in isolation for close contact.

Because, as he say, it's unprecedented for figures to fall as quickly as the data is showing, even during lockdowns. It's just not what happens during pandemics. It hasn't happened anywhere else before.

Have you tried watching his weekly update to find out? He says this week that the sudden drop is usually in pandemics and not currently explained as there has been no sudden changes in people’s behaviour to cause it eg a lockdown. I just sent this to my DH after watching it - Zoe app suggests there is a reduction in cases in the young, maybe fewer young people are being tested and are ignoring symptoms. Schools are also closed so people aren’t testing when bubbles ‘burst’. The 3 testable symptoms are nolonger common covid symptoms.

Tim Spector’s job is to gather and analyse data. If there is an anomaly in the data he needs to flag this and say the data can’t be relied upon. He makes it very clear that they are using real time data which has not been fully analysed.

I took it that he was concerned his data were possibly wrong and they were looking into possible reasons.