What would happen if everyone stopped testing?

[duckme]

Just that really.
I fully understood the need for constant testing at the beginning of the pandemic. But I wonder, now that the vaccine rollout is thoroughly underway, what would happen if everyone just stopped testing.
So people who had the classic symptoms no longer tested, people no longer took lateral flow tests on a regular basis, close contacts of confirmed cases weren't encouraged to get tested, that sort of thing. People would only be tested if they were unwell enough to need medical attention.

Obviously the number of confirmed cases would drop, but since a lot of the restrictions are being eased from next week anyway, what difference will the testing make, other than to give an idea of the number of people with coronavirus at any given moment (whether they're actually unwell or not)?

@TheSunIsStillShining: “What I would have liked to see:

• restricted access for non-essential purposes
• managed border crossings. Knowing exactly who came in, where they were.”

All a bit late now.

We’re dropping restrictions, and contemplating removing most of the isolation periods. Infection is soaring. And we’re going for herd (or “equilibrium”, as apparently it’s now described).

Closing the borders to free travel seems rather like we would be protecting the rest of the world from us!

Even in the middle of the last lockdown, it didn’t make much scientific sense. (Too much virus this side of the border.)

It was always political appeasement, to make the public think the government was taking action. It was just theatre.

Don’t you think?

[quote duffeldaisy]@ButteringMyArse
I simply cannot be bothered, I really can't.
If I did lay out a plan (which isn't possible as I don't have access to all governmental supply chains for everything - that's what the government does) then all you'd do is nitpick about some other point because you don't agree with the basic concept of approaching it from a 'let's not let it spread' viewpoint. And I do. Because I look at those countries and hear from friends/family and they are having completely different experiences of all this. They might be slightly more careful than usual, but in many countries with low figures, life is going on without all this chaos and illness.[/quote]
Ah, so you don't actually have the knowledge or information to have any real idea whether we could have successfully copied the NZ approach and kept us all fed and supplied too? Good to know.

We’d have half a chance of getting out of this shitstorm.

I read a study a few months back which concluded that 75% of flu infections were asymptomatic... We just never know because we don't test.

I thought that was why they are worried about flu this year - and flu kills very old and young - as it's not been circulating so we haven't been getting these immunity boosts so worried population immunity has dropped so could have a really bad flu season.

I've heard various experts say eventually covid 19 will end up like other four common corovirius - you get them many times over course of life and get some immunity each time.

www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-700-what-four-coronaviruses-from-history-can-tell-us-about-covid-19/
theconversation.com/coronaviruses-a-brief-history-135506

I think long covid is the downside to that - though 40-50 year old women had highest rates of that so perhaps youthful infection may prevent that as well long term.

I think if we stop testing now it will just spread more and what that means depends on the populations immunity levels - these apparently look good in Wales at the moment
Covid antibodies estimated for 91.8% of adults in Wales though it lower in younger age groups and I haven't seen figures for children.

God, don't baffle them with logic!!

When Trump had one of his loonier moments and said that cases in USA were high because they were testing too much, I remember thinking that nobody would get away with that kind of logic in the UK, they'd just be laughed at. Looks like I was wrong

@covi

I would love people to stop testing so that cases numbers would drop and there would be no more panic or fear. This way this country wouldn't be on the red list for so many other countries. The other benefit would be going back to normal life. But there are people out there like the scientists/ people on full pay working from home who otherwise would have to return to offices/ gps that really do not want practice and want to control their work flow without the pressure of seeing patients... the list can continue. Unfortunately these people are keeping us in lockdown/ partial lockdown. I have an example in my family of people not wanting to go back to normal as they would have to return to the office. So I blame them for the situation we are still in!

So true.

I have friends loving the restaurants being open, taking their kids on days out, lots of shopping trips but dare mention a return to the office and it's a firm no. They are absolutely quids in, having made huge savings on travel etc.

Everyone speaking out for restrictions to remain ALL come from a place of privilege, the restrictions don't affect them but they'll continue to say that 'we all have to do our collective bit' it's not about an individual, it's about protecting others..... blah, blah, blah. Even though it's been nearly 18 months and a successful vaccine rollout, it's still not enough.

"I think there is a real risk that the government may try to vaccinate our children against covid come autumn."

Since when has the government ever insisted on vaccinations?
There are children out there who've never had an MMR, or ones for HPV.

If we're lucky then we might be offered the choice. Many of us are desperate to have our children vaccinated. Don't campaign against choice for other parents who have weighed up their children's situations and know the benefits would outweigh any risks for them.

@puppeteer
I was using past tense. Now it would be of very little use. But used last March we would have seen the past 1.5 years unravel in a very different manner.

@polestar

1. At around 1min the line is: "x many died after getting the vaccine, some as young as 1 years old."

how would they have gotten the vaccine?

1. At around 1.10-1.15: there has never been such a push to vaccinate children who already have immunity.

This sentence is wrong on so many levels. How do you know if a kid has immunity? How do you know how long natural immunity will last? Will they be regularly tested for antibodies to see if immunity is fading?

1. they keep saying that the technology is untested, which simply is not true. mRNA technology has been out there for years and studies have been conducted on children too. (SMA drug)

The whole premise of this video is annoying. Why are some people so keen on taking away my right to decide what is best for my kid?
I think making studies and data available for those who understand/interested is the key and a wide range of factual explanation of the data available to those who are interested, but not knowledgeable enough to understand the technical details.

And yes, the factual explanations can/should contain views from all sides, but they would still have to be factual. This video is simply demagogue and tugging at our tear ducks. But doesn't really give scientific explanation or reasoning.

and btw... nowhere in the world is it mandatory to vaccinate children. It's an option with guidelines and guidance from each country's medical professionals.

When we debated to get our teen vaccinated or not (yes, he got it) we read up on multiple country's point of view. Nowadays you don't even have to know a language as google translate is quite good. And it is interesting to look outside sometimes.

@polestar
You'd have more credibility if you didn't post stuff by Sucharit Bhakdi. It might look academic but he is a Covid denier whose ideas have been fact checked and debunked multiple times. He has been banned from Facebook for spreading false information about the pandemic.

[quote polestar]Okay the video is from the US and dealing with circumstances there. I don't think the NHS begins to provide us with accurate knowledge about covid, the pcr tests and least of all the covid vaccine. I have tried to provide information about the vaccine here: www.conservativewoman.co.uk/protect-our-children-from-this-vaccine-assault/[/quote]
Please explain and provide data to substantiate this re: teens. Because in the UK teens are classed as children.
"Children do not die of coronavirus and their capacity to transmit the virus is more limited than in the older population.
The vaccine appears to be causing unacknowledged and insufficiently recognised levels of harm."

"And as the JCVI reported, there was almost no transmission within schools."

JCVI based that on ONS data from May 2020 when all schools were online. No transmission in closed schools? What a surprise.

At this point I closed this. No point. This is pure misinformation campaign. Doesn't help anyone, but does shitloads of harm.

@polestar

Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to Belinda Brown either, having read her bio

She has a particular interest in men's issues and the damage caused by feminism.

I thought that was why they are worried about flu this year

The main reason is that there has been so little flu in circulation in the Southern Hemisphere that the data on which predictions for the dominant strains are made is scantly. So deciding what to include in the flu shot is harder than usual. But the consequences of getting it wrong and having a bad flu year would be concerning.

www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/25/is-the-uk-in-for-a-bumper-flu-season-this-winter

seasons are bad when virulent strains of the virus meet people with little or no immunity. In the past few years, the UK has experienced relatively low numbers of flu cases, with hardly any in the season just gone because lockdowns and other Covid measures dramatically reduced the spread of influenza. According to the Royal College of General Practitioners, cases of flu in the community were about 95% lower than normal last season.

With so little virus in circulation, population immunity will have waned, leaving people more vulnerable to flu when the world reopens and transmission picks up again. There is also more uncertainty over the effectiveness of the flu vaccine this year, because the decision on which strains to include in the shot was taken on fewer samples than usual.

It's a mix of potentially a poor flu vaccine match as harder to predict dominat strains and a lower overall population immunity.

I do wonder if the NHS with backlog and covid and bad flu year gets overwhlemed they'll reinrtoduce some of the restrictions again in winter.

@polestar

Anybody who says anything critical of the vaccines will be debunked and fact checked and censored and so on. Fact checkers do not have authority on the truth. I have often checked their replies on topics I have thorougly researched and found them wanting. When I research I check all the links that I can find, go back onto original documents and triangulate with other arguments. Many of the people who are censored and fact checked lose their jobs, their income and their status for saying what they say. On the other hand fact checkers, facebook, google and so forth benefit enormously from the vaccine roll out. I know who I trust more. The level of censorship and propaganda in this country is really extensive.

Hard to know where to start with this, but how do fact checkers benefit from the vaccine roll out? (Apart from getting protected by the vaccine themselves.)

And you're definitely saying that the multiple times that Bhakdi has been fact checked and debunked are all wrong, and you believe his views that Covid is fake, vaccines are pointless and will decimate the world's population?

Got you. Yes indeed.

It’s not an alternative I would have relished. But it would at least have been a more coherent strategy than the mess we have had.

Interesting to reflect that we wold now be in essentially Aus/NZ’s position. It is clearly a better position. But it’s not night and day.

nowhere in the world is it mandatory to vaccinate children

It’s not mandatory for adults either but look at how people on here are acting towards unvaccinated people. It’s awful. I would hate to see unvaccinated children being treated the same way and I don’t think parents should feel pressured into having to their children vaccinated just so they don’t get treated differently. I can understand why parents of clinically vulnerable children might want to vaccinate them but otherwise, I think it is wrong to vaccinate healthy children. It would not be primarily for them and it seems like the herd immunity argument is going out the window with the delta strain. The vaccines would be better off going to vulnerable people in other countries.

I cannot agree with any of your arguments @bumbleymummy

My kid won't be safe, and I won't be safe if he has to go into a place with no mitigation measures and no vaccination.

I would lean towards agreeing if schools would do the absolute maximum that they could possible do - but they don't do even the bare minimum.

Imo, it's again a false narrative. I don't think all kids have to be vaccinated. It's up to the parents. But all schools should be well ventilated, possible on a rota or part time, sd, masks and general good hygiene.
The other thing that annoys me is the kids don't transmit, don't get sick... Let's break it down to age bands, because it's not a one size fits all from 0-18. teens are -biologically- almost fully grown, their immune system, hormones, feet size :) are as of adults. Let's acknowledge that. You may have a 3 year old and think of him/her when posting, but I'm thinking 16 yr old when talking about kids, as mine is that age. There is no conversation to be had if we don't specify what kids mean.

I am happy that my kid went to kindergarden in a country where only fully vaccinated (at 3 or 5 yrs) were allowed into the education system. Because no vaccine is 100% perfect, but by doing this they eliminated the chance of some obscure disease resurfacing again. (thinking rubeola and such...)

It’s not mandatory for adults either but look at how people on here are acting towards unvaccinated people.

I don't know what you mean. (have stayed away from corona threads and in general mn for a while)

Personally I hate people who cannot use a tissue for the life of them, who cough and squeeze freely wherever,....etc
And in this country the majority is like that. I do not want to "trust their decency and common sense" because they obvious lack both even in normal times.

In 2019 I was working in an open air office with about 5-10 ppl (5 always, others few days only). Together with the office manager we decided to make a few things mandatory before the winter season: tissues on everyone's desk + a hand sanitizer. And every time someone forgot to use them one of us would call them out. In a few weeks they got used to it.
+1: I sent home whoever came in sick. And out boss backed me on that - so that was lucky.