Would you now host big indoor party ?

[Cecillie]

Perspective needed
Preface by saying I haven’t been anxious about COVID, worked throughout in client facing role. Had it the first March and had antibodies 14 months later, double vaxxed etc. Obviously been careful and followed all the rules.
Boss has planned for ages a big party for 31 st of July. Part personal and part business and she is really excited about it, and I’m supposed to be helping.
It’s about 200 guests in an upstairs function room, no outdoor space , a disco and a buffet.
Even from my laid back perspective, the rate of infections now make this seem like some kind of viral culture medium !
She doesn’t seem to have even thought this might be a terrible idea to go ahead and obviously the rules now say she can.
I can’t see many people wanting to go though lots of people will feel obligated to do so.
Am I being cautious , should I say something? If I wasn’t helping I’d just shut up and either not go or pop in for half an hour but I feel some kind of responsibility as it is.
Don’t get nasty, this party isn’t my idea, just trying to canvass opinion before I burst someone else’s bubble and have a chat with her.

Maybe sugggest everyone do an LFT?

Nope

No

It’s such a bloody contradictory situation now
My Facebook feed is full of shops and hairdressers saying they are still enforcing limits on people in building and continuing mask wearing, alongside local pubs advertising disco nights !

Nope wouldn't host or attend. Unless everyone was provably covid tested prior to attending

No and wouldnt feel obligated to go. Just because something can happen doesn’t mean people will agree it’s a good idea.

No. But it’s my idea of hell at the best of times, so Covid is a great excuse.
In all seriousness though, it’s too soon.

If it’s part business it could ultimately blow up for your boss if many people are infected at it (quite likely).

@IndigoC

If it’s part business it could ultimately blow up for your boss if many people are infected at it (quite likely).

That’s part of my worry We have been so careful at work, working in little bubbles and social distancing from other bubbles, still are now. So we stop that on 19 th and less than two weeks later we abandon all risk avoidance measures .

I think if you are vaccinated and have already had covid the risk to you is fairly low but I understand why it would feel weird. I think that what will probably happen is that a lot of people won't show up if infections continue to rise and therefore the risk will be lower than you think. I have a feeling that there might be a u turn from the government before 19th anyway so the party might end up needing to be cancelled.

@KylieKoKo

I think if you are vaccinated and have already had covid the risk to you is fairly low but I understand why it would feel weird. I think that what will probably happen is that a lot of people won't show up if infections continue to rise and therefore the risk will be lower than you think. I have a feeling that there might be a u turn from the government before 19th anyway so the party might end up needing to be cancelled.

As I said I’m not particularly concerned for myself. Though if it was a random invite from a friend I’d probably decline. It just seems to be giving the wrong signals out I suppose. Majority of attendees are older and will be double vaxxed.

Do you really think there will be a u turn before the 19 th after today’s press conference, surely they can’t ?

Nope. I'm going to be more cautious now than before as now it's going to be rife.

I still think there may be a uturn before 19th or covid passports will become mandatory...something will change.

My short answer would be NO!

The long answer, so you have some information for your boss:

Let’s do some maths…

At present, in some parts of the country the case rate is 1500 cases in 100000. So that works out as around 1.5% of the population has COVID at any one time. (Data from the gov.uk website, I have no idea where you live, but the case rate is soaring all over the country)

At a party with 200 guests, you could expect to have around 3 positive cases (give or take, and at this particular moment in time). Many, especially now with vaccinations, are asymptomatic, but may still transmit the virus.

Now, in a poorly unventilated indoor space you can expect transmission to be pretty high (and that is without alcohol, and the lack of masks and social distancing) - the delta variant is especially transmissible in these circumstances - just look at the data coming out of The Netherlands who opened their night clubs and dropped many public health measures on the 26 Jul. In the week following, the case rate rose 800%! Today the Prime Minister of The Netherlands apologized to his country for opening up too soon, and has reinstated public health measures. When he opened up his country, there were just 558 cases a day (Statista.com), and the case rate had been low and steady for some time. They are also vaccinating at speed.

So, taking that all into account, you can expect the virus to be present and able to transmit - so the only question is how many people contract it that evening.

Today, Jeremy Hunt stated in the Commons that 1 in 40 people that contract Covid will need hospital care. This is despite vaccinations (although much lower rate than before the vaccine).

So, if just 40 people contracted Covid from the party, you should expect one guest requiring hospital care. But how many could become infected?

Now, some of these figures will be a gross underestimation by the time we get to the end of July. At this point in previous waves we have always locked down. We literally have no idea how high cases will climb before we peak (through infection derived herd immunity or self imposed lockdown due to fear).

Yes I would.

Could you suggest ahe moves the venue outside as you think lots of people will be wary of attending inside?

Absolutely, I would love to! Laughing at the idea of a U turn before the 19th

Not a chance I would host or go to such an event at the moment.

I wouldn't go. I might go to an outside party.

It isn't relevant to me because 1) it's not allowed here and 2) I'd not have done that pre-covid.

But if neither of the above applied, I'd not do it at the moment, no. Neither host nor attend.

Not a chance I'd host or attend. I think she's nuts to risk her reputation and that of the business so soon.

I wouldn't give it another thought! Life is too short for this nonsense.

I wouldn’t come. Can you mention ventilation as you’re helping her plan?

Is it much different to what has already been happening at hundreds of pubs up and down the country the last few weeks, hundreds of people indoors unmasked singing and shouting all closs together with the only main diefference that they were sitting down, like boris says if not now then when, party away whilst you can.

No. I wouldn't want to put my guests on the spot.

There are plenty of outdoor venues that time of year. I'm holding a garden party a week later.