Looks like the Tokyo Olympics may not be able to go ahead.

[TravellingSpoon]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57760883

They have declared a state of emergency in Tokyo which will last until 22nd August.

I fee so sad for everyone involved if it does have to cancel. I love the Olympics.

@newnortherner111

Japan has just over 2,000 cases a day and declares a state of emergency. The UK has over 30,000 yet is going to end all restrictions.

I'd favour a games with no spectators.

It’d be linked to hospitals being overrun

I recall seeing reports from Osaka hospitals about a month back finding capacity too high

Cases that low with capacity that overrun does seem worth looking at. Not sure why so different

Japan has a policy of "hospitalising" all cases that test positive, even if asymptomatic. This may just mean staying at specially prepared hotels but the situation in Japan is very different to the UK.

Also, the meaning of declaring a state of emergency is very different. There has been no lockdown like the UK. Basically, in Tokyo places that serve alcohol are supposed to have closed and other places are supposed to shut by 8pm. It's really very mild compared to the UK. The cases are much fewer and the death rate is much lower.

I think most Japanese people just want the Olympics over and done with. The vaccination program has been very slow in Japan and many places just don't have enough vaccines.

They are supposed to decide in the next few hours about spectators, if they haven't already

Wasn't it mandatory for the olympic athletes to be vaccinated (unless medical contraindications)?
So the olympic athlete bubbles should be relatively secure, especially if they quarantine for a while and get tested before release.
yes, ditch the spectators. they were only going to allow locals in anyway, no spectators from abroad so it shouldn't be too complicated (apart from the refunds of money, as pp says, always about the money).

Just announced that all Olympic events held in Tokyo will be without spectators

Ok, so I heard that there will be no spectators at events in Tokyo but they still haven't decided about events being held outside of Tokyo.

Sorry, crossed posts with you.

Hi @FoxVillage
Are you in Japan?
I'm guessing they might allow some spectators in Hokkaido etc?

I live in Tokyo and FoxVillage has it exactly. State of emergency sounds dramatic but it's really just a polite request from the government for pubs (izakayas) to close early. Some will, some won't.

The medical system here works completely differently to the NHS. They have prioritised non Covid treatment and care throughout, and then dealt with Covid cases on top. 'Overrun' here means 'we might not have space for any Covid patients on top of the usual patients we predict for this time of year'. Makes sense, but nothing like the scenes in Europe.

I appreciate difference in state of emergency and it makes more sense now contextualised

The overrun hospitals reminded me of reports re Osaka a month or so ago

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/hospitals-overwhelmed-as-covid-cases-surge-in-osaka

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/22/national/osaka-patients-dying-home/

Maybe not as bad as it sounded

@TanteRose

Hi *@FoxVillage* Are you in Japan? I'm guessing they might allow some spectators in Hokkaido etc?

Yes, I have tickets outside of Tokyo. I'm still waiting to hear but on the fence about it all. They said that if spectators are allowed, they will hold a lottery to reduce numbers and let us know the results of the lottery on the morning of the 10th. If we win, we can decide whether to keep the tickets or apply for a refund then.

@FoxVillage
I see - I have friends with tickets who are hoping for a refund

I'm afraid I've been against the Olympics from the beginning - just always seemed unconscionable to spend all this money when people are still living in temporary housing in Tohoku
That article I posted upthread is very illuminating

Obviously not quite the same (as there will be so many more athletes ), but there was a commercial swim league that bubbled 300 international swimmers in Budapest last Autumn.

Some were late to arrive, because they had to isolate, but it seemed to work really well:

www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1098241/isl-swimming-season-two-budapest

I suppose the big difference was that there were just a few cameramen and presenters.

It sounds like they may have to cancel the Olympics, could be playing Russian Roulette with a lot of people.

Japan has a policy of "hospitalising" all cases that test positive, even if asymptomatic.

Yes. Because early treatment prevents progression to more serious illness. Who knows, perhaps it might (if treatment given) reduce the risk of Long Covid too (although that's very much an unknown at this stage).

@newnortherner111

Japan has just over 2,000 cases a day and declares a state of emergency. The UK has over 30,000 yet is going to end all restrictions.

I'd favour a games with no spectators.

This.

Also known as dealing with the problem with a proactive and preventative approach (Japan) versus sticking fingers in ears, singing la la la, and pretending reality isn't happening (Westminster government).

@Tealightsandd

Japan has a policy of "hospitalising" all cases that test positive, even if asymptomatic.

Yes. Because early treatment prevents progression to more serious illness. Who knows, perhaps it might (if treatment given) reduce the risk of Long Covid too (although that's very much an unknown at this stage).

I suspect it is one reason why Japan has such a low death rate. Japan's death rate per million for COVID is about 6% that of the UK. I'm sure there are many other factors, but early hospitalisation must be a major contributing factor.

I don't think there are any people left in temporary housing in Tohoku, but I do understand why many people were opposed to hosting the Olympics. I'm on the fence, but I feel with Japan's national debt being so high, then if they can recoup some of the money in a way that minimises risk, then they should try. I also feel for the athletes who have been training hard. But, the risk is not zero and it worries me, especially with the vaccination shortages. But, the government is determined to hold the games, so my opinion doesn't matter.

The no spectators decision seems the sensible one.

@newnortherner111

The no spectators decision seems the sensible one.

Yes! Apart from Covid-19, hospitals in Tokyo were worried about spectators getting heat stroke when summer temperatures can exceed 35°c with dangerous humidity levels They may allow some spectators in Hokkaido in the north of Japan, where the marathon will take place (because it's cooler up there)

Will be glad when the whole fiasco is over...

But, the government is determined to hold the games, so my opinion doesn't matter

It’s not the government, it’s the IOC.

If Japan cancels, the financial penalties to the IOC are crippling. Huge. They cannot cancel. Even in normal times it’s usual for a host city not to break even.

Only the IOC can cancel or postpone. What happens in Japan locally is of no consequence to them, neither is what happens to athletes. They are the ones who benefit financially, so it is not in their interest to cancel.

There was talk of the IOC getting athletes to sign a waiver that there was no comeback if they became severely ill, disabled or died from covid while at the olympics. Don’t know if that happened.

I heard that they will allow spectators at stadiums outside of Tokyo but capped to less than 50% capacity. Is that right? Will find out tomorrow the results of the lottery. I’m still on the fence. I’m scared to go but it’s kind of exciting to go as well. I’m so on the fence!! 😱

Basically, as of today, I still have my tickets for the Olympics. The stadium will be at 10% capacity, but Hokkaido and Fukushima have changed their mind, so I still don't feel it's 100% that we will be allowed to attend, but basically these tickets are like gold dust. 😱

Part of me thinks it's kind of crazy to even think about it, but it's an outdoor stadium at 10% capacity and a very very rare opportunity to be able to go. So, I'm very very tempted. I have until the 20th to decide whether to apply for a refund or not. Unless my prefecture also changes its mind. It's just crazy!

@Reallyreallyborednow

It will go ahead. Tokyo can’t cancel, the IOC is the only one who can and they have too much money tied up in it, and the issues in Tokyo itself don’t affect them.

As always, money before athlete welfare. They should have bumped this to 2024, and paris to 2028.

I think this highlights just how much power there is in sport, that isn’t being used for the good of the sport or the athletes. Athletes are a commodity.

The athletes always have the option of withdrawing though. Nobody is forcing them to participate. And given how brief a time athletes are at the peak of their abilities, 3 years from now many of them probably wouldn't qualify.

The athletes always have the option of withdrawing though. Nobody is forcing them to participate

If they’re in the UK and rely on lottery funding, there’s a real chance that refusing to go will mean the loss of their funding, and also risk not being selected for GB ever again.

Governing bodies have a lot of power and can effectively say they go or lose their career and livelihood.

@JayAlfredPrufrock

The horses set off the other day.

The Olympic Horses 🤩🤩🤩

@Reallyreallyborednow

The athletes always have the option of withdrawing though. Nobody is forcing them to participate

If they’re in the UK and rely on lottery funding, there’s a real chance that refusing to go will mean the loss of their funding, and also risk not being selected for GB ever again.

Governing bodies have a lot of power and can effectively say they go or lose their career and livelihood.

Some of them may be coming close to the end of their career and won't have another chance to participate in an Olympics, so it would be worth it.

Is there evidence that large numbers of athletes are unhappy about going? Not many footballers seemed to have an issue with playing at the Euros, or tennis players at Wimbledon, so I'm not sure that athletes are feeling 'forced' to participate at the Olympics.