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Original poster

Herd immunity

32 replies

Immaculatemisconception · 07/07/2021 16:37

Covid: UK ‘very close to herd immunity’ as antibodies estimated in 90% of adults!

Public Health England expert says country ‘very close’ to reaching critical level of protection!

Great news.

OP posts:
SuperstoreFan · 07/07/2021 16:38

That's great news if true.

herecomesthsun · 07/07/2021 16:39

Herd immunity would have to include children too. They are part of the "herd".

I hadn't ...herd... that expert....

ifonly4 · 07/07/2021 16:42

OP, do you have a link?

If it's true, then I'd like to think we're not likely to hit 100,000 cases a day as suggested.

MarshaBradyo · 07/07/2021 16:44

Is there a link to this?

Sounds good if so

Turquoisesol · 07/07/2021 16:44

I thought herd immunity wasn’t possible due to the ongoing variants. Hasn’t this been proven by manaus ?
I agree it is good news that we have a degree of protection though. But I think the public have some misconceptions about herd immunity.

randomlyLostInWales · 07/07/2021 16:44

Covid antibodies estimated for 91.8% of adults in Wales

An estimated nine in 10 adults, or 91.8% of the adult population in Wales have antibodies - a rise from 82.1% a month ago
Two-thirds (66.4%) of 16 to 24-year-olds now have antibodies
This rises to nearly 89% of 25 to 34-year-olds
It rises through the age groups to 96.3% of 35 to 49-year-olds and 98.2% of 75 to 79-year-olds
The proportion of the population covered sees Wales ahead of the other UK nations - with 89.8% covered in England, 87.2% in Northern Ireland and 84.7% in Scotland.

21% of the UK population is under 18 and I've not seen figures for herd immunity in them which would be coming mainly from infections not vaccines - so not sure about herd immunity yet though we should reach it at some point.

randomlyLostInWales · 07/07/2021 16:45

Is it from the Indpendent?

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-antibodies-herd-immunity-b1879643.html

Original poster
Immaculatemisconception · 07/07/2021 16:45

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-uk-antibodies-herd-immunity-b1879643.html

OP posts:
gildalily · 07/07/2021 16:59

This sounds like good news but does anybody know what happens if there's a new variant? Are we back to 0% immunity-wise?

ollyollyoxenfree · 07/07/2021 17:01

@gildalily

This sounds like good news but does anybody know what happens if there's a new variant? Are we back to 0% immunity-wise?
no not at all

new variants tend to reduce efficacy of prior immunity, but it would be like unlikely for their to be complete immune evasion. It just means the numbers shift in terms of a higher proportion of people needing to have immunity to confer population-level protection.

SexTrainGlue · 07/07/2021 17:01

@gildalily

This sounds like good news but does anybody know what happens if there's a new variant? Are we back to 0% immunity-wise?
Only if it entirely escapes both vaccine induced immunity and protection following the wild disease.

You'd need to have high transmission in a population where a large-ish number are not fully vaccinated to set the optimum conditions for a variant such as that to get evolutionary edge to make a jump like that

Turquoisesol · 07/07/2021 17:03

I think it depends on many factors gildalily- how long vaccine protection lasts, how long natural protection lasts, how much the new variant evades vaccines etc etc. Probably very unlikely to be back to 0% but I would have thought we could easily lose at least half that immunity as all these factors change

PrincessNutNuts · 07/07/2021 17:15

What excellent timing.

Did they say why the numbers keep rising despite this?

Or that only 50.9% of the population is double vaccinated so their nearly at herd immunity claim is bullshlt?

70% double vaccinated + whatever natural immunity remains is the minimum needed.

Boosters for belt and braces.

You can't declare herd immunity at 50% population coverage!

Well not if you want to be taken seriously.

SonnetForSpring · 07/07/2021 17:18

What about children? How ridiculous

SonnetForSpring · 07/07/2021 17:18

@PrincessNutNuts

What excellent timing.

Did they say why the numbers keep rising despite this?

Or that only 50.9% of the population is double vaccinated so their nearly at herd immunity claim is bullshlt?

70% double vaccinated + whatever natural immunity remains is the minimum needed.

Boosters for belt and braces.

You can't declare herd immunity at 50% population coverage!

Well not if you want to be taken seriously.

Exactly.
SonnetForSpring · 07/07/2021 17:19

We don't know how long immunity lasts. There is so much misinformation its unreal.

Puppysharness · 07/07/2021 17:20

Is it possible to have herd immunity when the vaccine doesn’t prevent you from catching or passing on the virus?

I hope so, but it doesn’t seem logical. Can any science types explain this to me?

MarshaBradyo · 07/07/2021 17:22

Ok thanks for link

Where does this come from?

The Office for National Statistics said that in England, 89.8 per cent of the adult population would be likely to have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus in the week beginning 14 June – suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated. That was an increase from 79.6 per cent a month ago.

‘would be likely to have tested positive’- anyone know what the phrase refers to

Turquoisesol · 07/07/2021 17:24

It just seems like a headline for people to latch on to and use as justification for declaring Covid over

CressidasWizzards · 07/07/2021 17:24

Yay!

QueenStromba · 07/07/2021 17:27

Herd immunity for Covid is a pipe dream. We're probably looking at an R0 of about 6 for the delta variant which would require 84% of the population to be immune to stop transmission (1-1/R0 = 1-1/6 = 1-0.16). If we vaccinated 100% of the population with Pfizer we'd only reach 64% immunity.

MarshaBradyo · 07/07/2021 17:29

If you still transmit with vaccine then do you get closer to immunity with natural infection?

Before it wanes that is, if it does

Feels confusing

SonnetForSpring · 07/07/2021 17:29

Not really. Plus with risk of new variants, herd immunity wouldn't last too long anyway. It's simply propaganda by PHE.

MarshaBradyo · 07/07/2021 17:30

Then again you’d be immune with vaccine and a positive infection

SonnetForSpring · 07/07/2021 17:30

@SonnetForSpring

Not really. Plus with risk of new variants, herd immunity wouldn't last too long anyway. It's simply propaganda by PHE.
Sorry I meant to quote puppysharness