Is another lockdown inevitable?

[Notsowise]

I feel full of dread and anxiety.

I’ve been so adamant there won’t be but after yesterday’s announcement it feels inevitable and they are ‘letting’ us out now because they know they’ll need the compliance soon.

My mental health is really suffering, we postponed our wedding from last December to this December and I feel so stupid for rebooking it in winter. We’ll lose so much money if we cancel it and all the summer dates this year are gone. I don’t even care about how many guests, I just want to be able to get married as planned that day.

I think we will go into lockdown if the NHS can't cope, but as everyone will be super sensible we should be ok.

Cynically I think they are trying to get herd immunity this summer when the NHS is relatively quiet so that by autumn we've all had covid and our natural immunity starts to reduce community levels.

This sounds feasible though (a) i still don't fancy having covid if I can avoid it and (b) if they have huge numbers of positive cases come autumn, I.e. if we haven't all caught it quickly enough from mid July, then I can see them having to put some restrictions back in place.

Vaccination might be working, if there were 100,000 cases per day, even a much smaller proportion of them ending up as hospitalisations compared to pre-vaccine could still end up being an overwhelming number.

I'm going to avoid busy indoor places this summer and get my groceries delivered, but I'll be doing as much outside stuff as possible/travelling widely to outdoor events and activities.

I don’t know, and according to Chris Witty last it sounds like the scientists can’t agree on what will happen either.

We have taken a huge gamble and we just have to hope it pays off.

I don't believe so even with a vaccine resistant variant, BJ has an ally in Javid for his preferred strategy.

The plan is vaccines and herd immunity by natural infection, hopefully all done by winter.
Boosters wont happen because vaccine by injection takes too long to roll out.

Its going to be a rocky road for sure :)

I don't think there will be a total lockdown, no. Maybe "hotspots" and localised restrictions but total, no.
The hospital numbers are a bit misleading if we're looking at them to justify a belief that this thing is on its way out, as of course, the fact that the majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated means that there will, by definition, be far more people with the virus but only "a bit poorly" or asymptomatic.
I can see the logic (almost) in "letting it rip" during the summer months, but that's a pretty big gamble with people's lives. Because some of those people that get infected are going to die. And, conversely, it won't be "collateral damage" (the elderly and CEV) anymore, it'll be a relatively healthy 45 year old who has decided for whatever reason not to be vaccinated.
Take up figures for the vaccine are worth keeping an eye on.

@Takingthewee

I don't believe so even with a vaccine resistant variant, BJ has an ally in Javid for his preferred strategy.

The plan is vaccines and herd immunity by natural infection, hopefully all done by winter.
Boosters wont happen because vaccine by injection takes too long to roll out.

Its going to be a rocky road for sure :)

Won’t they cut time by doubling up with flu appointment?

Not sure if study ended on that

I think it's a day by day,or moreso week by week thing, and we have to see what transpires for now.. Nobody can really foretell how things will really pan out yet, despite all the waffle/knowledge,from those in charge of all things. There are still people in high places, who are still at odds regarding safety, and lockdowns etc. But I guess thousands of people will just do their own things now, now they have the taste of freedom on their minds.

Put the anxiety-bourbons away, OP

I don't think we'll have another lockdown unless a new strain emerges that the vaccines aren't effective against.

Honestly, OP - it's very unlikely that anyone on Mumsnet can reliably tell you. Very few of us really know what we're talking about, and we're all working from the same information and speculation as each other.
Let's hope not.
All best wishes for your wedding - I hope it's everything you want.

I doubt it, and I've been pretty negative about the whole pandemic. Unless deaths suddenly start to rise in very young populations because of variants I don't think there is the political will to lock down again.

Double vaccinated people have a 0.2% mortality rate. About that of a typical seasonal flu. By winter almost everyone will be fully vaccinated.

There is some risk of further lockdown in winter but I think it's quite low. Risks

A) a new variant that is much more deadly and lowers the vaccine effectiveness significantly.

B) bad flu season plus low levels of Covid hospitalisation means nhs can't cope

But on balance we're living with it. There will be deaths and long Covid, which is hugely sad at an individual level but not on a scale to impact policy and mean everyone needs to adjust their behaviour.

I don’t think covid should set the precedent for locking down when the nhs is struggling. The nhs always struggles in the winter.

Personally I won’t be complying with any further lockdowns whether or not they are legally enforced. I can see the government contacting the old and vulnerable and recommending they stay at home but locking down healthy individuals has to end.

@billycorn

Most of the unvaccinated are expected to catch Covid by the end of the summer as it will be so rampant and it will be almost impossible to avoid. Given how well the vaccine rollout has been I think the idea is that we'll have enough immunity within the population to avoid another serious wave/lockdown. The issue might be other viruses i.e. flu which might put pressure on the NHS.

What's your source for this please?

Sorry, the bit about about unvaccinated getting covid by end of summer