Some perspective (and positivity) re cases/data

[TheVampiresWife]

The last time confirmed daily cases were as high as they are today was late January. That sounds alarming, but on 29 January when there were 28,680 new cases, there were also 1239 deaths and 36931 people in hospital.

Today, there were 27,989 confirmed cases. However, there were 22 deaths and 1,720 patients in hospital.

Of course any number of deaths and hospitalisations are too many. But the differences are so stark and it's really reassuring proof that the vaccine programme is a success. I know we know this anyway, but seeing such a marked contrast between now and then really does make it hit home.

January

Today

Thanks for this, you have cheered me up!

Sorry, 1795 in hospital, muddled my screenshots!

A more realistic comparison has to be with a day with an equal number of cases, but when the wave is on the way up, not on the way down to allow for the delay in cases turning into hospitalisations and then deaths. So for example 16th December 25,161 cases and 537 deaths. But still really good news.

Agree the hospitalisation and deaths are much lower for number of cases than they were at beginning of year.

But also remember the deaths and hospitalisations for that same date were from cases 2-3 weeks before.

The comparison needs to be cases first week of Jan - which I think were 60/70k a day?

But data really does seem to be showing a dramatic reduction and really positive signs the vaccines have broken the link or are at least breaking (but even if breaking currently with the way the programme is going things will only get better!)

That is good news, thanks for the positive thread OP!

Whilst I do think we are in a different situation now, I don't think you have your logic right.

You would be better to compare deaths when cases were rising (not falling) as there is a lag between hospitalizations and deaths. We are also testing more than ever.

That said, we are not in the same position we were in in January.

I feel comfortable with restrictions being lifted on 19th July (more than I did for 21st June) even though there is quite a high risk of catching Covid.

I hear what people are saying, but the fact remains that when the last time cases were so high deaths and hospitalisations were hundreds of times higher than they are now.

Also it's worth remembering that the January figures were during a lockdown - today's figures come at a time when almost everything is open and life is almost normal.

The figures are absolutely encouraging even with variables.

@TheVampiresWife Indonesia are currently trending upwards in cases at a similar rate to us and the difference is pretty stark there too. Unfortunately they’ve used Sinovac as their main vaccine which doesn’t offer as much protection (although I’m sure we’d all be clamouring for it if it was the only one in existence).

Again your argument is very easily pulled apart.

Cases were falling at that time. The deaths were as a result of transmission weeks before, possibly when there was not a national lockdown.

You are right. If we look at November / December when as many people had Covid (and probably not as many identified though testing then) we are in a much better position, but it would not be that level of deaths. If you look at December 18th for instance we had 28k cases and 514 daily deaths. But even that is not really that comparable as less testing.

But vaccinations will hopefully mean that we can deal with this wave without the NHS being overwhelmed and additional measures being brought in.

Ps I don't mean to have a go. It's just some are still insistent that we are in a very dire place and we aren't and I don't think we will be.

@Wakeupin2022

Again your argument is very easily pulled apart.

Cases were falling at that time. The deaths were as a result of transmission weeks before, possibly when there was not a national lockdown.

You are right. If we look at November / December when as many people had Covid (and probably not as many identified though testing then) we are in a much better position, but it would not be that level of deaths. If you look at December 18th for instance we had 28k cases and 514 daily deaths. But even that is not really that comparable as less testing.

But vaccinations will hopefully mean that we can deal with this wave without the NHS being overwhelmed and additional measures being brought in.

The figures from January are from the 29th, so almost within the 28 day measure from the start of lockdown. Certainly some of the deaths will have been a result of infections before lockdown started but the vast majority will fall under the within 28 days of a positive test measure.

As @Cornettoninja says, even with the variables taken into account it's still a far more positive picture. And even if infections continue to rise as they have done, if deaths rise by the same proportion we should never again be in the tragic position where thousands of people a day are dying.

@Wakeupin2022

Ps I don't mean to have a go. It's just some are still insistent that we are in a very dire place and we aren't and I don't think we will be.

I absolutely agree!

And even now we don't know what they are in hospital with. People actually in hospital due to Covid treatment or assistance will be even lower

I'd feel more reassured if CEV children and their siblings could get the vaccine

@Caramellatteplease

I'd feel more reassured if CEV children and their siblings could get the vaccine

Absolutely.

Don't be daft OP, only mass hysteria is allowed here

I'd also like to add this study to the positivity. It's a pre print, so not yet peer reviewed, but it's the first study of its kind that has actually followed sero positive children for several weeks and compared them with a control group of sero negative children. Findings indicate that symptoms of Long Covid are at a similar level to the background level of symptoms that children report.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.16.21257255v1

Sorry to be a downer but this is so flawed.

Testing now: 1m/day roughly.
Testing Sept/Oct: 250,000/day roughly.
So 28000 cases now = 7000 cases in September/October.

This assumes LFT = PCR are equal. Which everyone knows they are not, because LFTs are TRASH and miss probably half of positive cases. So let’s discount half the tests we do now as pointless. So 500,000 now vs 250,000 then. So 14000.

Why then? Because you can only compare the start of a wave. January is on its way down, so obviously there would be loads in hospital/admissions. Same with November.

So let’s look.

14000 cases on an upward peak was about 10th October.

Around that time we were averaging about 1000 admissions/day. There were about 4000 in hospital. There were about 80 people/day dying.

So basically 4x worse then for admissions, half as many in hospital, and 4x more deaths.

The important thing to consider is the average age of people in hospital then vs now. We all know it’s younger people now. This should translate into fewer deaths in 3-6 weeks time than say from mid-late November.

The important thing is what happens in the next month. And then what happens in the Autumn/Winter, because October is at a slight disadvantage compared to July, that’s for sure.

**by half, I mean double. Sorry just woke up.

because LFTs are TRASH

not a fan then?

Here's another comparison, this time between Autumn last year and now.

I would like to know more about how many of the people testing positive are actually symptomatic and out of those, how many are quite ill? That's what makes a big difference going forward. If we have tens of thousands of people ill and off work for a week or two, then that will make a huge difference to how society functions. If on the other hand most are asymptomatic or have a bit of a headache and a snuffly nose but could technically get on with the day as normal, then the case numbers don't really matter as much especially if we move away from the 10 day isolation and close contacts restrictions.