Is the Delta variant more deadly?

[Itslava]

Just that really.

No.

No.

IDK doubtful

Not according to the scientists.
More contagious, less likely to make you ill.

No, from what I’ve read/heard it’s more akin to having a cold.

General rule of thumb with viruses - deadlier are less transmissible. As my dd says, more spreadly, less deadly!

Not as an Infection, no. But where it is more problematic is that it can make more people sick by being more transmissible. So whereas in the first phase of the epidemic it took a while for admissions to build, with delta you can get lots of people needing hospitals at once. That's what happened in India and people died not because they had a lethal infection but because there were too many of them for hospitals to treat. You can die of flu or cellulitis or a uti really easily without treatment. Same with delta.
But in the uk vaccination is protecting us from that effect. Without that we would have had surges on hospitals by now.

Doesn’t look like it.

No.

Viruses generally mutate to become more transmissible and less deadly.

Evolutionarily that makes sense. If everyone who has the virus is so sick they lock themselves away, or die, that's no good for the virus.

If they stop killing their hosts, and instead make people mildly sick, ideally not even so sick that can't work, the hosts will go around infecting everyone.

Luckily for viruses, we have developed a culture of taking paracetamol and going to work when a cold virus or similar hits

Covid has no evolutionary pressure to become less deadly as people are infectious before they are symptomatic. I really doesn't matter if it kills its host rapidly if it has already moved on

It looks like it’s no more deadly, but it spreads faster, so we still might end up in some bother ☹️ Hopefully vaccines will protect the more vulnerable. I wouldn’t be surprised if we were back in lockdown at some point this year tbh

If it is less deadly how come so many people are dying in India? Is it because of poverty/less access to health care?

@titchy

General rule of thumb with viruses - deadlier are less transmissible. As my dd says, more spreadly, less deadly!

I tend to agree with this sentiment and hope this is the case. Apparently mostly spreading amongst the unvaccinated so young people children etc. Not sure I agree with teenagers being permitted vaccination unless it keeps schools closed constantly. Need more international data on this but third booster vaccination plus influenza vaccination for all adults seems a pragmatic sensible living with Covid and influenza approach especially as it would facilitate international mixing perhaps.

It is more transmissable so will infect more people, more quickly in an unvaccinated population. It will therefore kill more people than previous variants in those countries which have not fully vaccinated the vulnerable.

A more lethal virus - one that kills all of its hosts very quickly - will kill fewer people than a covid like virus as it will find it harder to spread.

@Blooter

If it is less deadly how come so many people are dying in India? Is it because of poverty/less access to health care?

There us a high proportion of diabetics in India and Covid is worse in SE Asians. Which may be partly why it seems worse there?

@Blooter

If it is less deadly how come so many people are dying in India? Is it because of poverty/less access to health care?

Have you read up on the health service in India? Combine that with poverty, unsanitary living conditions, over crowding everywhere and no lockdowns. It was a recipe for disaster.

It is twice as likely to land you in hospital, but the impact on deaths isn’t known yet
www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/delta-variant-doubles-risk-covid-hospitalisation-scottish-study-2021-06-14/

It increases the chances of hospitalization so, untreated, would increase the chance of deaths. Except that we can treat it, bringing deaths down again.

As it appears to put a higher proportion of people in hospital, you might expect a higher proportion of deaths too, but vaccines and treatments have made it less deadly than earlier waves. You'll need to see what happens in countries with low vaccinations to get a better comparator.

@Blooter

If it is less deadly how come so many people are dying in India? Is it because of poverty/less access to health care?

Yes, these factors plus slower vaccine roll out.

Also remember that India has a huge population. So even huge numbers of people dying, proportionately could be less than the numbers we had here during the peak.