Why 10 days?

[CroydianSlip]

Is there good data behind the 10 day isolation? Do we know how many cases are genuinely transmissible/have new emerging symptoms at 10 days?

When I last searched there was a lot of data suggesting 5-7 days post exposure was the main window for symptoms to develop.

I'm just wondering with the talk of restrictions being released and school isolations being dropped whether there's some middle ground on isolations that should be aimed for? Isolating for a week for eg?

I also read that less than 20% of those asked to self isolate actually follow the rules so wondering if concentrating the isolation to the most transmissible window is more likely to have a good impact?

Who knows? Just don't do it at all.

The average incubation is around 5 days. Most people will incubate within 11 days. Some people do take 14+ days to incubate but that is not common.

If I recall correctly, one of the reasons the UK moved to 10 days was because they felt that people would find this easier to manage rather than 14 days and were therefore more likely to comply. Don't forget SAGE is informed by behavioural scientists as well as disease experts.

www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

So it is a fairly arbitrary measure then?

I guess the point about behaviour is that people aren't doing it, so maybe reducing it to the 5-7 days would be more effective and less disruptive?

That article is interesting but I guess outdated in the context of this pandemic - there must be more available data now.

I don't quite understand how they define the low/medium and definitely infected categories