Stats

[AmIPeriOrAreYouJustAnnoying]

23 died yesterday. Very sad. But insignificant in a population of 67 million no?

People are never 'insignificant' and that is the sort of language that shouid never be used to describe death figures.

But yes you are right that the current figures for deaths are low.

However as the number of positive cases continues an sustained rise (which seems to be growing, up 54% yesterday, when it has been mid-30% daily for the last 2-3 weeks) and thus rise out strips the increased testing by a considerable margin (up 6.9% yesterday, usually under 10%) then we are still at the stage where the wave is growing.

Hospital admissions are up 10% (range in last fortnight about 10-20%) and though the death numbers are low (so the percentage hops around a lot, it's been on a double digit increase for some time now). Low numbers do not stay low when there are sustained rises. That is why we need to be careful, and take the steps to keep transmission as low was possible before the numbers are large

But as Boris said, right at the start to much condemnation 'some people will die'. But even he doesn't use the word 'insignificant' when talking about real people and the time and manner of their deaths.

@SexTrainGlue don't be obnoxious . I said deaths were sad. I am suggesting the numbers are not significant.

Covid deaths in the vaccinated population will be even lower.

Sorry, it's 62%

Catching covid after being vaxxed twice is a worrying trend. I know vaccine does not stop it; it reduces your chance of being hospitalised, but it's still a scary prospect. Andrew Marr was discussing this this morning.

Don't be ridiculous @CautiousBlonde !!!

Catching covid after 2 jabs doesn't pose same risks as catching covid after no jabs. Having covid after 2 jabs is becoming even more like having the common cold than it was when we had no vaccines.

Even being double vaccinated will not stop some people from dying.

Some of these people wouldn’t necessarily die from Covid as their health issues/ age would mean that regardless of Covid they would have died.

However, for some people the vaccine just will not work as they will not produce an immune response.

I’m not sure if there is enough data to really draw any conclusions into this yet. The Government seem quite happy about the data they are seeing. Who knows?

At the moment Sage/ Independent Sage have gone quiet.

I am quite interested to hear their opinions on the latest data/ proposed relaxation of restrictions.

They were very vocal about the 21st June plans, so I am finding their silence a bit baffling.

@SpringRainbow

Even being double vaccinated will not stop some people from dying.

Some of these people wouldn’t necessarily die from Covid as their health issues/ age would mean that regardless of Covid they would have died.

However, for some people the vaccine just will not work as they will not produce an immune response.

I’m not sure if there is enough data to really draw any conclusions into this yet. The Government seem quite happy about the data they are seeing. Who knows?

At the moment Sage/ Independent Sage have gone quiet.

I am quite interested to hear their opinions on the latest data/ proposed relaxation of restrictions.

They were very vocal about the 21st June plans, so I am finding their silence a bit baffling.

I am quite interested to hear their opinions on the latest data/ proposed relaxation of restrictions.

Both groups work with evidence, and they have already given their views on the risks attached - nothing has changed since that means an update is required.

Throughout this pandemic, we've always had countries that have done what we are about to do - it's been easy to predict the likely consequences. We are approaching uncharted territory though.

If Delta is effectively the last major change to the virus, then we're likely to get through the next wave without overwhelming the NHS, although a lot of people will still die. The estimates have been given to the government - the government is happy with them.

The other concern is MUCH more significant, but impossible to quantify and that is what will covid do next? It seems it's hard for people to grasp the fact that we are creating a huge laboratory experiment designed to force a vaccine busting mutation. But because it can't be quantified, and it's set against the very real consequences of restrictions, the government have chosen to ignore this risk.

Nothing to say on the science now until something happens - the data shows things are worse than believed, or a new mutation presents new dangers.

@justwanttodanceagain on a personally level I have always assumed the ‘reality’ will be somewhere between the worse predicted outcome I can find and the best predicted outcome I can find.

At the moment there are plenty of both on mumsnet.

Although I do feel like I have been waiting ‘just a few more weeks’ for ages now.

@AmIPeriOrAreYouJustAnnoying

23 died yesterday. Very sad. But insignificant in a population of 67 million no?

Only to people with amnesia about the last 18 months who aren't bothered about people in their 30s and 40s dying of what some people try to categorise as "a trifling cold".

[quote SpringRainbow]@justwanttodanceagain on a personally level I have always assumed the ‘reality’ will be somewhere between the worse predicted outcome I can find and the best predicted outcome I can find.

At the moment there are plenty of both on mumsnet.

Although I do feel like I have been waiting ‘just a few more weeks’ for ages now.[/quote]
Umm - the worst possible outcome is that covid mutates into something that spreads easily through double vaccinated people and triggers serious cytokine storms among unvaccinated children at a point in the epidemic when infection numbers are sky high and even a very quick lockdown results in tens of thousands of healthy children dying.

Another "worst" outcome would be that the virus mutates, but boosters don't take and instead of that 95%+ protection we currently have, we end up with something closer to flu vaccines: 50/60%.

Neither of these are particularly likely, but then again, in Dec 2019, nobody considered a world-wide pandemic was particularly likely.

@justwanttodanceagain just as unlikely as come 19th July Covid will disappear and we can go back to pre pandemic life.

Like I said, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.

@justwanttodanceagain there we're definitely people out there who thought a pandemic way likely. Not the likes of you and me, but for those who's life's work is dedicated to this area.

"Was" likely, not way likely!

[quote janopolisdeNorthEast]@justwanttodanceagain there we're definitely people out there who thought a pandemic way likely. Not the likes of you and me, but for those who's life's work is dedicated to this area. [/quote]
I should have had the word "imminent" in there, as obviously given eternity, a global pandemic is a certainty.

So, in Dec 2019 nobody (including the experts) considered a global pandemic was imminently likely.

[quote SpringRainbow]@justwanttodanceagain just as unlikely as come 19th July Covid will disappear and we can go back to pre pandemic life.

Like I said, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.[/quote]
Gosh - well maybe get on the phone to Boris and tell him to sack Sage and in future he can just ask you what will happen eh?

@justwanttodanceagain no one has any idea what is going to happen.

All the predictions are just that, predictions. Even Sage themselves have not been correct all the time.

No one has any idea what is going to happen.

[quote SpringRainbow]@justwanttodanceagain no one has any idea what is going to happen.

All the predictions are just that, predictions. Even Sage themselves have not been correct all the time.

No one has any idea what is going to happen.[/quote]
Like I said, the reality will be somewhere in the middle.

Except you apparently?

@justwanttodanceagain Haha if you like, although let’s face it I could have been a lot more specific.

Then again, since I was incredibly vague how could I possibly be wrong since I didn’t really say anything

Still, thanks for the compliment. I needed the laugh and ego boost!

[quote SpringRainbow]@justwanttodanceagain Haha if you like, although let’s face it I could have been a lot more specific.

Then again, since I was incredibly vague how could I possibly be wrong since I didn’t really say anything

Still, thanks for the compliment. I needed the laugh and ego boost![/quote]
One wonders why you bothered to tag me with an argumentative response that "didn't really say anything"...

Do you regularly go around with posts like

@someone
"Hey - umm nothing really"

People are dying WITH Covid. People are admitted to hospital WITH Covid. Never yet seen anything showing whether any of these people are dying or in hospital because of serious ill health due to Covid. More Covid in circulation more it's going to appear in the stats.

@Pootle40

People are dying WITH Covid. People are admitted to hospital WITH Covid. Never yet seen anything showing whether any of these people are dying or in hospital because of serious ill health due to Covid. More Covid in circulation more it's going to appear in the stats.

There are 152,000 death certificates with covid mentioned on them by a doctor.

And ONS analysis consistently suggests that covid was a main or contributory cause of death in over 90% of them.

Thousands of them never made it onto the 28 day numbers, and clearly they far outnumber the mainly apocryphal "run over by a bus within 28 days of a positive test" deaths.

@justwanttodanceagain nope, you are obviously very special

Or maybe I am just bored.

Thanks for making me laugh.

Wow are ONS doing mystic Meg type post-mortems? Amazing. What a load of shite.