About the North West...

[WeirdArchitecture]

What do you think is driving cases up so high in this area? It seems to dip down every few months then skyrockets again.

I have family in Wigan, so can only speak for this area - and it's almost back into the high figures once more. Most areas are not heaving with multi generational households or sunk in poverty - which is the usual image of the north.

I have visited quite a bit and don't particularly see anyone messing around, and most places seem very compliant with restrictions, etc.
It's depressing that it won't let go. From what ive read, vaccine uptake is generally decent in this region so wtf? I think around 411 are in hospital with nearly 100 on ventilation.

Anyone else in the north west got any thoughts on this? It's like it never ends.

Im based in south cumbria and it's inching up again here too.

Wigan is not far from me and honestly cases even though on rise are only a fraction of what they were in jan and feb

Its largely because people here:

a) worked throughout - noone i know has or does wfh
b) literally everyone gave up following the rules months ago
c) biggest rises are in under 24 so the 3 colleges could increase numbers if they have cases

I live in Bolton,the area I live in does have high level ,s of poverty and Multi generational living,we had the highest rates in the country a few weeks ago and signicantly higher than other areas in the Northwest ,Bolton's is a large town that Borders other towns ,lots of people come into Bolton to work and vice versa,numbers are going up everywhere now it's a virus it spreads

also the likes of liverpool and manchester have really low vaccine uptake as yet - in Manchester only 38% adults have had 2 doses compared to 65% in my area of Lancs - i expect this is due to more young people who haven't been eligible yet but its in the young that its transmitting

@WeirdArchitecture

Im based in south cumbria and it's inching up again here too.

South Cumbria here too!

Thanks.
Weird, I didnt know there were 3 colleges in wigan!

Not familiar with bolton, but am aware it is having a bad time. The area where my sister and her family live in wigan has shot up from 2 cases last week to 36.

I highly doubt it's the young people who are in hospital though. I wonder why uptake would be worse there?

I think there's a few factors at play. I think places like the Lakes, Blackpool, Southport etc have seen their rates go up sharply due to the massive numbers of tourists pouring in over Bank Holiday and half term. Blackpool on the Bank Holiday was all over the North West News and it was absolutely heaving, mainly with the age groups that wouldn't be vaccinated. Every public car park was full and people had taken to just abandoning their cars on the promenade.

Now most of those people visiting came from the North West and returned home to the North West having spent the weekend not social distancing and not wearing masks around 1000s of strangers. Then they returned to work, and school, as well as people visiting from Blackburn, Bolton etc and giving it to the local residents who had to serve them in the restaurants, hotels, theme parks, rides etc. And this would have also happened in the Lakes and all of the beach towns and cities like Manchester, Liverpool where people went on pub crawls etc over Bank Holiday.

I live in a North West commuter town and work an hour away. Lots of us in Greater Manchester, Lancashire, Merseyside do so now we are all back at work in person, cases will go up. For example, if you live and have children in school in Bolton but you work in Wigan and your kids catch it from school, there's a good chance you've taken it into work and then colleagues in other towns with kids in other schools can pass it on that way.

There are lots of factors but I'd say, living in one of these sort of towns we tend to move around alot. We might have friends or family in other towns or cities that we haven't seen for a while. There are lots of tourist destinations and hospitality options. The weather has been good and we've had bank holidays, half term, Father's Day etc so people have been socialising and travelling alot in a smallish geographical area.

True, lots of large towns all strung together across the north west, a very densely populated area. I wondered whether the case rates might be due to personal behaviours or the large population - perhaps a mix of both!

However, whilst im sure people in the north west have their share of 'idiots' (sorry, not a nice term) it can't be that much worse than any other densely populated area, surely?

I have been pondering this and really hope some clever people are also studying this and will eventually come up wit a reason. I live no Blackburn which has been top of the table for most of this last year. It has the highest number of people who have officially had covid - 12% of the population . Yet it still tops the chart. I know about the poverty etc. But feel there is something else going on.
Nearby ribble valley is very posh rural and that’s near the top of the chart even tho it has a good 70% uptake of vaccine. Schooolls are closing in ribble valley. Why’s has it been so hard hit? It’s so odd. I wish i knew why .i feel a bit ashamed to live here tbh.

yes, from what ive managed to glean from the gov interactive map, the higher income parts of wigan seem to have been harder hit too. I think the poverty card is over-played and grossly over simplifies the situation.

I don't want to believe that people are simply shit there.

Perhaps as a pp said, many don't wfh. And a lot of people work in neighbouring towns (ie, wigan and bolton, etc)

I’m in a higher area of West Yorkshire. It’s been high throughout. The areas of concern in my council area are predominantly either poorer areas where many, many people cannot WFH or maybe afford to isolate. Equally, there are far bigger pockets of white, lower income groups in my neck of the woods who think covid is a joke. You can imagine them all on an anti-lockdown March. Also areas with large numbers of ethnic minorities & multigenerational living, low vaccine uptake..

I live in the ‘posh’ part of my council area. Everyone I know here can pretty much WFH bar teachers & NHS staff. Compliance is high. So is curtain twitching on the local Facebook group 🙄 Cases are extremely low.

It’s pretty obvious the factors that cause higher cases in my opinion. It’s not one groups fault, but it is certain & multiple demographics that are causing the rise. Mostly through no real fault of their own (bar the deniers).

The north west is very inter-connected in terms of work and leisure. Especially as much of it is on the coast. Manchester/Salford a major economic hub and people commute there from all over the region.

I live in chorley are cases here have gone up recently today was 67. But it seems to be coming from schools and teenagers around here. Two secondary schools have shut recently. Today it was reported that the local hospital had about 65 cases in and about a third had got the virus while in hospital.
I think it's mostly in the younger age groups what aren't needing hospital treatment for it.

Sal

I don't know
But having spent half term in East Anglia I was totally shocked by how laissez faire everyone there was in comparison with Manchester businesses and leisure near where I live. Yet East Anglia has been at much lower levels. Everyone I know and see has been compliant throughout. It's really depressing tbh.

I'm in Preston and DH, DS1 and DS2 (teens) have all tested positive this month. DH was double vaccinated too (AZ).
We think DS1 picked it up in his pt job, mask wearing for customers isn't strictly enforced by his employers. Our close contacts in Manchester didn't really self isolate for ten days either. SIL was made to go into work and sit by an open window and PIL just said 'we'll see' and then did what they want anyway.
Most of my colleagues (nurses) have been subtly breaking the rules for the past year.

So we are currently off school - kid in class has Covid. Various kids in class are carrying on as normal going to tennis, swimming etc in the evening.

Parents who don't give a shit. THAT"S why it's not coming down.

I’m in the West Yorkshire, bordering Lance and I think part of the issue is that we haven’t really even come out of restrictions. So people are totally fed up. When rates go up in the North, local restrictions are put in place, but when rates go up in the south, the whole country are put into a lockdown.
We only got about 2 weeks last summer when we were allowed snide other people’s houses.

@Benediction

I don't know But having spent half term in East Anglia I was totally shocked by how laissez faire everyone there was in comparison with Manchester businesses and leisure near where I live. Yet East Anglia has been at much lower levels. Everyone I know and see has been compliant throughout. It's really depressing tbh.

Higher footfall. There's 3 million people just living in Greater Manchester and 7 and a half million in the north west.

Norfolk's population is under a million and a fair land mass.

Im North west and it is running rampant in the schools near me with bubbles busting everywhere.
It seems worst in primary schools this time. Dds school only had two cases in the last wave but they are really struggling this time.

As others have said not lot of people who wfh.

People not understanding isolation rules or using LFTs instead of PCR when symptomatic.
People who don't get sick pay and would struggle to isolate not testing/testing children. People not isolating the whole family until negative result if someone is symptomatic.
People sending their children to school and not isolating the family when waiting for family members test results.

I think it went something like this..... The delta variant took hold in places like Bolton and Blackburn with high percentages who cant work from home and multi generational households. It's now spread amongst the young unvacinated population so rates have shot up in neighbouring areas. Manchester and Salford in particular have very young populations due to the universities so they have lots of unvaccinated people vulnerable to infection. It is now rife amongst children and young adults across much of the NW so its spreading fast.

also the likes of Liverpool and Manchester have really low vaccine uptake as yet

You are completely wrong! I live and work in these areas (in the vaccine hubs) uptake here is around the same as the national average - 1st dose national 81.9% here 79.9 2nd dose national 59.7 here 62.2

I don't get whats happening in the Ribble Valley. We are the 3rd highest rate in the northwest. In previous waves we weren't like this. I get that people go to work in neighbouring Blackburn and to college, but like a previous poster mentioned, its a fairly affluent area, vaccine takeup is high. My son and husband got it last week and I know so many more people that last time round who have/had it. When I got it in October, I was a bit of a novelty because no one knew anyone who had caught it. I'd love to know what is different this time.

Also hardly anyone I know is WFH the vast majority work out the home in differing jobs

I've been wondering this myself. Uptake of the vaccine is good. There are tons of walk in vaccine clinic for over 18s now. I've had mine but I'm still getting texts every morning to tell me where the clinic is for that day.

Is it because of everyone mixing more? Daytrippers travelling in from other areas? The numbers of people who can't afford to not go to work if they're called by test and trace?

I've been to a few places where you wouldn't think there had been a pandemic - notably a naice canal side pub with flooded toilets, no soap for hand washing, and a waiter with filthy looking hands bringing drinks to the table. Perhaps there are a lot of businesses not able to keep up with the extra cleaning etc needed.

Also everything @Lissy23 said. When our cases rise, only we get locked down. When London’s cases rise, the whole bloody country does. We got no summer last year. The south did. And because of high cases in London, also no Christmas. It’s bloody unfair.

People are def fed up of the north/south split. When they ‘advised’ my area to not meet indoors or travel, I watched everyone setting off on half term holidays as planned. Indoor & outdoor attractions are fully booked & packed, as are restaurants & bars. No-one has remotely changed their behaviour because we are all terrified we’ll get shoved into local lockdown again while the south swan on. I’m socialising to the extreme at the mo, just in case!