1 vaccine dose cuts hospital risk by 75%

wintertravel1980 · 18/06/2021 15:36

It is both.

The 33% protection is against getting Covid in the first place.
The 75% protection is against hospitalisation risk. In other words, people may still get tested positive but their symptoms are likely to be milder.

Bordois · 18/06/2021 15:52

I’ve seen people on here say...

People on here say a lot of things. Unfortunately 90% of it is total cobblers.

MRex · 18/06/2021 16:01

@wintertravel1980

It is both.

The 33% protection is against getting Covid in the first place.
The 75% protection is against hospitalisation risk. In other words, people may still get tested positive but their symptoms are likely to be milder.

That.

33% get no symptoms at all.
42% get some symptoms but recover.
25% need some hospital care, of which x% sadly die. (X still being worked out. It will take longer to work out the impact on risk of death because they need more figures and assessment.)

MsMartini · 18/06/2021 16:12

There are different ways of measuring effectiveness: against being infected (testing positive), showing symptoms, being seriously ill, being hospitalised, dying. The protection increases at each stage (because you have to be a case to be hospitalised for example).

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1405851031909634050/photo/1

LemonTT · 18/06/2021 16:20

I think it’s more like 99% cobblers efficacy on here.

strangeshapedpotato · 18/06/2021 16:21

@Dandyish10

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57523149

Anyone else confused by this....

So first we were told 1 dose is only 33% effective.

I’ve seen people on here say having 1 dose and being infected with the Indian variant, is as good as being unvaccinated and being infected with the Kent variant.

Yet this article says studies have shown one dose of the vaccine is reduced hospitalisations by 75%...

So which is it?!

The 75% protection is an mid-way value picked from the range calculated based on current data. The actual value could be as low as 50% and as high as 90%.
As others above have said - it relates to risk of being hospitalised with Delta.
Vaccines aside, Delta is over twice as likely to put someone in hospital as Alpha
Put 1 and 3 together and if the actual protection of one dose is at the lower end of the determined range (50%) then you are as well protected after 1 jab as an unjabbed person was facing the Alpha variant. This is the worst case scenario though.

In short, get your second jab and get that protection up to 95% - Delta has raised the risks for everyone.

Dustyboots · 18/06/2021 16:22

So which is it?!

We're being sold a lie, OP.

moonbedazzled · 18/06/2021 16:39

The report says:

^A single Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine dose reduces chances of catching coronavirus and going to hospital with it by about 75%, data suggests.^

But does mean it's 75% effective? I don't know. I used to think I had a good grasp of maths but they way they write things leaves,me so confused. I'm with you op. In the papers I've read it's only 33% effective and I've also read it's just as effective against the Delta variant as against other variants. I don't think anyone knows for certain, papers have to fill column inches and journalists don't check facts and don't care what they print. My vote would be all papers to be banned for a week so we can have a head rest.

MsMartini · 18/06/2021 16:47

The PHE report sets all this out (see Tables 10 and 11 in that thread, which is by someone from PHE and has the links at the top) and is published every week using the updated data. AFAIR, the 33% figure was against symptoms (not serious disease, not hospitalisation) after one dose, from a previous report, but the press report it without confidence intervals which is misleading. I am interested so I try to follow it but there is no need to - as pp said - the bottom line is they are highly effective after two doses.

Chessie678 · 18/06/2021 16:47

@MRex

I don’t think that’s right as even without a vaccine 33% people have no symptoms and far fewer than 25% require hospitalisation. An unvaccinated 80 year old has a hospitalisation risk of about 20% and obviously it’s much lower for younger age groups.

The 75% reduction in hospitalisation risk is relative to the risk without vaccination. So as I understand it (and I’m sure someone with more knowledge will correct me if I’m wrong) if I have a roughly 1% chance of being hospitalised with covid without being vaccinated, with the vaccine this reduces to around 0.25%.

What I’m not sure about and would be interested to know is whether the 75% reduction in hospitalisation is after accounting for those who don’t get covid at all as a result of the vaccine or not I.e is the 75% reduction in hospitalisation only in those who actually get covid despite being vaccinated or is it in anyone vaccinated.

strangeshapedpotato · 18/06/2021 16:57

[quote Chessie678]@MRex

I don’t think that’s right as even without a vaccine 33% people have no symptoms and far fewer than 25% require hospitalisation. An unvaccinated 80 year old has a hospitalisation risk of about 20% and obviously it’s much lower for younger age groups.

The 75% reduction in hospitalisation risk is relative to the risk without vaccination. So as I understand it (and I’m sure someone with more knowledge will correct me if I’m wrong) if I have a roughly 1% chance of being hospitalised with covid without being vaccinated, with the vaccine this reduces to around 0.25%.

What I’m not sure about and would be interested to know is whether the 75% reduction in hospitalisation is after accounting for those who don’t get covid at all as a result of the vaccine or not I.e is the 75% reduction in hospitalisation only in those who actually get covid despite being vaccinated or is it in anyone vaccinated.[/quote]
So 1) As I said above - it's not 75% - it's a range of possible values between 50 and 90%

Yes, it includes the risk of contracting symptomatic covid in that value.

So take your case.
If with Alpha you had a 1% chance of being hospitalised (unvaccinated).
With Delta that risk would be raised to >2%

Add the vaccine on top and it reduces that by 75%* to 0.5% (if we accept this value) - if you take the range then your new risk is between 1% and 0.2% after one jab.

After 2 jabs, it's about 0.1%