'Numbers are only going up because of surge testing'

[guiltynetter]

I live in a covid hot spot and surge testing is everywhere, army handing out tests door to door, pop up tents everywhere, tests in every work place and school etc. Lots of vaccination sites everywhere too.

I keep hearing people saying the covid rates are only going up because of surge testing but, if the surge testing is identifying positive cases then that means the cases are out there doesn't it? I don't understand what people mean? It isn't 'only' going up because of the testing.

Does anybody know what people mean when they say that? It's starting to annoy me!

I think they mean before the testing there were cases that weren't captured so we might still have the same number as before the surge testing but they are now being captured whereas before the asymptomatic cases weren't noticed in the stats.

So they are arguing there isn't more covid just that more covid is being recorded in the data as it's being picked up.

I expect the clever scientists are aware of this and factor it in though.

Maybe I am missing something but I don't see any evidence of a distinction being made between symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. We just keep being told cases are rising.

I'm in Bolton so we have had surge testing too,they are surge testing precisely because the numbers are going up to identify those with few or no symptoms,there are a lot of very thick people on the Bolton news comments section,who seem to think they know better than the scientists,who keep wittering, 🙄

Test and ye shall find

Surge testing will pick up cases that would have otherwise flown under the radar due to mild/no symptoms or other reasons so while it will contribute a bit to higher numbers but it doesn’t account for the overall rising trend.

Tbh surge testing has less of an impact on the cumulative numbers since LFT’s were introduced in workplaces and schools.

I've seen people saying if you refuse to test, then the data won't show new cases and the roadmap won't be affected because the data won't exist I'd rather it be detected and removed from circulation thanks!

It's what they say to try and deflect blame from shit government strategy.

I think at the moment the most important numbers to look at are hospital admissions and the age of those people .

That’s the figures I will be looking out for tonight .

I think Boris would love for people to be sensible and take personal responsibility. And regular free tests .

Especially for weddings etc and work . Will people do that .?

I am not sure but whatever he does later will be wrong so he is on a lose lose projectory.

@VienneseWhirligig

I've seen people saying if you refuse to test, then the data won't show new cases and the roadmap won't be affected because the data won't exist I'd rather it be detected and removed from circulation thanks!

That's a shocking attitude!

I think people want to believe this, but it's not true.

The number of tests carried out has increased - yesterday's figures were pretty typical so I'll use them as an example - by 29%. But the number of positives increased by over 49%.

So they are finding a genuine rise, because IIRC correctly, every day bar one on the last fortnight, the %age increase in positives outstripped the increase in tests by a considerable margin.

Now, when your numbers are nice and low, a big %age increase isn't always an immediate concern because the numbers remain low. But with sustained rises it does become worrying.

I keep hearing people saying the covid rates are only going up because of surge testing but, if the surge testing is identifying positive cases then that means the cases are out there doesn't it? I don't understand what people mean? It isn't 'only' going up because of the testing.

Cases aren’t rising due to testing, the argument these people are making is that cases we’re aware of are rising due to testing.
Eg say (hypothetically) 10 people in every 100 have covid. On day one if you test 100 people you find 10 cases. But if you then implement a higher testing system (surge testing) and on day 2 test 200 people you’ll find 20 cases. And you could say “look, cases are going up” but they wouldn’t be, you’ve just tested more people. This is the argument you’ve heard people making.
However as a PP has said, this isn’t quite right. Because the % of tests coming back positive is increasing. So, it’s more like on day 2, you test 200 people and 25 come back positive. Indicating more than 10 in 100 have it, which is an actual increase compared to day one.

@VienneseWhirligig

I've seen people saying if you refuse to test, then the data won't show new cases and the roadmap won't be affected because the data won't exist I'd rather it be detected and removed from circulation thanks!

Yeah, I saw something similar on various newspaper comments sections last year. Someone’s obviously got the bright idea that what we don’t know can’t hurt us…

Johnson is fully responsible for this due to refusal to close borders for, what, the fourth time?

He lies. He is arrogant. He does not listen. And yet still people support him. Why?

People (some) like to think this, the Donald Trump philosophy. Whilst it’s true that surge testing will be picking up cases that may have been missed (the asymptomatic ones) it’ll also be getting some presymptomatic ones, so getting them earlier.
Either way though the percentage of positive tests/tests taken is also increasing which indicates the true number of cases is very much increasing.

The real numbers game is for hospital admissions and nos of patients in ITU.
Our area is also surge testing but more importantly the numbers of patients in hospital has gone up from 6 before May 17 to 60 odd and no one on ITU and 5 (both as of Friday). The swabs are being tested for the delta variant too.