Stats that explain June delay

[MistySkiesAfterRain]

I confess I've stopped following the news and stats. I've not seen as much reference to stats on cases and hospitalisation in relation to the decision to delay reopening in June, but I'm sure there must be some. I'm surprised the fact that most of the higher age groups have had 2 vaccines isn't enough to reopen as planned. Does anyone have a graph of what groups have been vaccinated/when?

"What’s a bit of an unknown at the moment is how much the vaccines and the variant will have changed the ratio of the number cases and he number of people needing hospital treatment."

This is what I can't get my head around.

Our local heat map reflects the advanced stage of vaccination in our area. No deaths since end of April, 1or less hospital admissions per week through May and June and although there was a slight increase in cases exclusively in 15-19 yr old mid May this has now reduced ( probably due to end of GCSEs and Alevels so this age group no longer mixing in large groups at school)
83% of adults have had their first vaccine and 67% have had both vaccine doses.
They are now vaccinating 15 and 16 yr olds, DH had his first dose of Pfizer this evening.
So things are looking positive. It looks like they have successfully stopped community transfer.
One of our staff at work is currently isolating due to a family contact, but she lives 30 miles away in a different authority where numbers are very different.

Sorry I meant DS (16) had his 1st vacc this evening.

Covid is no longer a seasonal illness, which is what we were all told.

@Covidforalways

Covid is no longer a seasonal illness, which is what we were all told.

Told by who?

It will hopefully eventually become seasonal, but it takes longer than a year for that to happen. I've seen plenty of people talking about how it will hopefully become seasonal in the future. I've yet to see anybody reputable on Covid say it has been seasonal so far. There's plenty of evidence that it isn't. Largely, the only people who've been saying that have been on social media.

30% of those who've died from the Delta strain were doubly vaccinated. I don't know which vaccine they were given (or if that's relevant).

I don't know that it's particularly meaningful to look at vaccinated people as a percentage of those who are dying when the overall numbers are so small. I mean if one vaccinated person and no unvaccinated people died then you could say 100% of the deaths were among double vaccinated people, but it doesn't mean the vaccines aren't working. 30% is 2-3 people a day at the moment, which from a purely mathematical viewpoint isn't a significant number at all.

What we really need to know is how many double vaccinated people are dying compared to the number of people in the same demographic who were dying when there were no vaccines, and at the moment the numbers are just too low to tell. Hopefully over the coming weeks it'll become clearer, especially if the case numbers continue to rise.

@paintedkites sorry to hear about the re-infection. How are you doing?

Angry - our local vax numbers are pretty similar and yet it's is still now doubling. But then it had been very low so will have to see.

For visual learners like me, Lawrence Gilder on Twitter puts it all into graphs and charts daily.

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1405188928018190337?s=21

@AlecTrevelyan006

twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1404525333316001798?s=19

twitter said:

So the SAGE modelling accompanying the delay suggests full re-opening on the 21st would have caused over 250k cases /day. That's a rate of just over 400 /100k. Even without Step 4, Warwick project about 100k /day by 21 June - a rate of about 170 /100k (LSHTM a bit lower).

For reference the ONS estimate daily infections in England peaked in December 2020 at 107k per day. That's in winter and with virtually no-one vaccinated.

For further reference, the peak rate of positive tests (noting that this will be less than total infections) in Florida which got rid of all its state-level restrictions/capacity limits last Sept was 81 /100k. Again in Jan with virtually no-one vaccinated.

In other words, SAGE have told the Govt that going ahead with Stage 4 would lead to a catastrophic and globally unprecedented increase in infections. In the middle of summer and despite the huge vaccination programme.

Note 250k per day is the central estimate. Warwick's upper estimate of the peak resulting from Step 4 looks closer to 350k infections per day, a rate of nearly 600 per 100k. Where do you even start with this?

The modellers model multiple different scenarios that have different results. About a dozen generally.

Obviously they can't all happen. And nobody says that they will.

Cherry-picking like this is a misinformation technique.

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ lots of info here

@psychomath

30% of those who've died from the Delta strain were doubly vaccinated. I don't know which vaccine they were given (or if that's relevant).

I don't know that it's particularly meaningful to look at vaccinated people as a percentage of those who are dying when the overall numbers are so small. I mean if one vaccinated person and no unvaccinated people died then you could say 100% of the deaths were among double vaccinated people, but it doesn't mean the vaccines aren't working. 30% is 2-3 people a day at the moment, which from a purely mathematical viewpoint isn't a significant number at all.

What we really need to know is how many double vaccinated people are dying compared to the number of people in the same demographic who were dying when there were no vaccines, and at the moment the numbers are just too low to tell. Hopefully over the coming weeks it'll become clearer, especially if the case numbers continue to rise.

If it's helpful, the statistics of this are unpicked quite thoroughly at twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1406571703011053572

The bottom line is it's good news.