If 8 out if 10 people have covid antibodies...

[TheVampiresWife]

...as has been reported today, how can there be any justification in delaying the roadmap beyond 21 June?

Honestly not being goady. Genuinely wondering if the aim is for 100% to have antibodies? Also, that number is surely increasing daily anyway, so by the 21st many more will have antibodies.

I'd have thought that people having antibodies is the main aim - what other requirements are there for full reopening to go ahead? Are there any?

It's 80% of adults and it's "have some antibodies". If those antibodies are from one vaccine it isn't enough.

The four tests of whether it's safe to lift restrictions further at each step are well published on the gov.uk website and make no mention of antibodies.

It's a silly headline really as having antibodies doesn't tell us what level of immunity there is in the population. We won't know until it is tested for real.

I was confused by this headline. I was under the impression that even if you have had Covid your level of antibodies decreases within months so say after a year you might not be protected?

So yes 80% of people might have antibodies but what does that mean in terms of immunity, or likelihood of admission to ICU etc?

I can't see any justification for delaying. Hancock himself said yesterday "hospitalisations are broadly flat". The NHS Chief Medical Officer said "vaccines have broken the link between serious illness".

This switch to focusing and frothing over cases and antibodies is utterly ridiculous.

Taken from BBC article. Last sentence important.

About 80% of adults in the UK now have antibodies against coronavirus, according to estimates from the ONS.

That’s positive news, and means eight in 10 people have had at least one jab or a previous infection and are protected against the virus to some degree.

There is a clear link between the increasing numbers of people being vaccinated across all four nations of the UK and rising levels of antibodies.

Back at the start of April, 60% of people had antibodies and there’s been a steady rise since then.

But antibodies are not a precise measure of immunity protection from vaccination, nor a clear indication of herd immunity levels.

There is still a lot of concern about those who haven’t had there first or second doses.

There is still concern about pressure on the NHS (both Covid and non Covid).

They want to be more certain that hospital and death rates will not just suddenly shoot up.

They still aren’t sure how much lasting immunity is gained from the vaccines/ catching Covid.

They are also concerned about future mutations.

There is still just so much that we don’t know about Covid that at the moment I don’t mind a little caution.

I hope that if we are cautious now then maybe (hopefully) we can avoid future harsher restrictions.

That’s positive news, and means eight in 10 people have had at least one jab or a previous infection and are protected against the virus to some degree

This sentence is important too, though. I realise it says protected to some degree, not completely. But the most vulnerable will have been fully vaccinated by now, and are as protected as they're ever going to be.

As @LucilleTheVampireBat points out, hospitalisations are flat. Deaths are low. Even with rising cases this holds true so yes, vaccinations are working. I know it's been said so many times before but really, what can be the justification for holding off with reopening?

@MonsterMash2210

There is still a lot of concern about those who haven’t had there first or second doses.

There is still concern about pressure on the NHS (both Covid and non Covid).

They want to be more certain that hospital and death rates will not just suddenly shoot up.

They still aren’t sure how much lasting immunity is gained from the vaccines/ catching Covid.

They are also concerned about future mutations.

There is still just so much that we don’t know about Covid that at the moment I don’t mind a little caution.

I hope that if we are cautious now then maybe (hopefully) we can avoid future harsher restrictions.

Mutations will happen anyway though, whether we delay opening or not. Ditto future restrictions - a delay of a few weeks won't mean everything turns to shit again in a few months.

I take your point re pressure on the NHS, but at this point it's definitely more with regards to backlog than covid.

@Lockheart

The four tests of whether it's safe to lift restrictions further at each step are well published on the gov.uk website and make no mention of antibodies.

I know. It's strange imo that something as central to safely unlocking as the number of people with antibodies isn't mentioned.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

I can't see any justification for delaying. Hancock himself said yesterday "hospitalisations are broadly flat". The NHS Chief Medical Officer said "vaccines have broken the link between serious illness".

This switch to focusing and frothing over cases and antibodies is utterly ridiculous.

Totally agree. It’s bonkers on this site. If we have antibodies from vaccines , infection or both and that’s not enough, then what is? For most of the unvaccinated (ie young people) covid will be no worse than a cold. It’s going to end up endemic and we’ll need to decide that we have to live alongside it.

No justification at all. This is crazy. This chart should give a sense of perspective . Under 55 you are more likely to die from something else . And admissions are low so what’s the reason for not opening ?

There is risk in everything we do

If those antibodies are from one vaccine it isn't enough

Isn't enough to achieve what? Because one dose does the heavy lifting to protect from severe illness and death.

@TheVampiresWife

That’s positive news, and means eight in 10 people have had at least one jab or a previous infection and are protected against the virus to some degree

This sentence is important too, though. I realise it says protected to some degree, not completely. But the most vulnerable will have been fully vaccinated by now, and are as protected as they're ever going to be.

As @LucilleTheVampireBat points out, hospitalisations are flat. Deaths are low. Even with rising cases this holds true so yes, vaccinations are working. I know it's been said so many times before but really, what can be the justification for holding off with reopening?

The more you hold off, the more you're protected.

Realistically, they know that should they open up on the 21st, there will be a surge in cases, it's just they clearly aren't 100% sure as to whether this will lead to a steep rise in hospitalisations and deaths (it's looking like it won't, but they are presumably waiting on official report).

They also cannot lock down again, it's got to be irreversible, which is ultimately the driver behind their caution. It's the same with the travel rules, realistically we should be adopting the same approach as the EU, but it's understandable why they are hesitant.

If we have antibodies from vaccines , infection or both and that’s not enough, then what is?

This sums up my point more succinctly than all my ramblings have!

one dose does the heavy lifting to protect from severe illness and death

And those likely to be severely affected by covid will have had two doses.

If those antibodies are from one vaccine it isn't enough.

Enough for what though? Enough not to catch it, be unwell, end up in hospital, or die? Because it's only the last two that are of any concern. If you've got enough antibodies to prevent hospitalisation and death surely that's good enough.

@TheVampiresWife

That’s positive news, and means eight in 10 people have had at least one jab or a previous infection and are protected against the virus to some degree

This sentence is important too, though. I realise it says protected to some degree, not completely. But the most vulnerable will have been fully vaccinated by now, and are as protected as they're ever going to be.

As @LucilleTheVampireBat points out, hospitalisations are flat. Deaths are low. Even with rising cases this holds true so yes, vaccinations are working. I know it's been said so many times before but really, what can be the justification for holding off with reopening?

But hospitalisations are not actually flat in the areas most affected, they are starting to climb in relation to infections from a week or two ago, and as we all know deaths lag cases and hospitalisations by some time so won’t be reflective of the higher level of cases now. Yes I think the vaccines will keep deaths much lower, but that’s not the only metric we should be looking at.

This is an interesting look at the data mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763

Hospitalisations are rising. It's the whole 'a small percentage of a very large number is a big number' thing.

Looks like good news to me 🙅‍♀️.. fingers crossed...

Children are people too. There are nearly 13 million under 16s in the UK.

So overall we probably don't have a high enough % for herd immunity yet, if that helps.

Re unlocking, I'd agree with Chris Hopson that it doesn't have to be all or nothing and we need to have a more nuanced debate.

Have no idea why 2nd emoji posted...

@TheVampiresWife I agree that mutations will happen forever as that is just what viruses do. Eventually we will have to just open up and treat Covid like we do other illnesses. There is no way this current set up is sustainable.

However, whilst so much is still unknown, people who want to be vaccinated are either partial or unvaccinated, and whilst there is a risk of the NHS becoming overwhelmed (by either Covid or non Covid). There is still a place for caution.

As rubbish as things are at the moment, at least we have a little freedom. I would absolutely hate to have another winter like last winter.

I don’t want this life forever, but I can’t stand the thought of everything we have now being taken away because we went back to normal too quickly.

Because what has happened in areas like Manaus in Brazil has proved that herd immunity isn't a workable strategy.

Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?

@ChequerBoard

Because what has happened in areas like Manaus in Brazil has proved that herd immunity isn't a workable strategy.

Covid-19: Is Manaus the final nail in the coffin for natural herd immunity?

The whole Brazil herd immunity original research has now been found to have errors. Which is why it didn't work there. They never achieved herd immunity in the first place etc etc.

8/10 is great. But it’s still 2/10 who are vulnerable and that’s enough to allow significant outbreaks to happen. More people infected means more viral replication and more chance for mutations where the vaccine may be less effective. And that would be really bad news. I think it’s actually a good argument to delay because we are getting closer and closer to the point where we could have say 95% protected and then that risk is significantly lower.