What are the current stats re hospital admissions?

[cmonarrycmon]

Can anyone do a handy link to hospital admissions stats? And also are there stats that breakdown what percentage of those admitted have or haven't had the vaccine / if they've had just one or both vaccine?
The current infection numbers seem really concerning, but if we aren't seeing a corresponding rise in serious illness and admissions, then we don't need to be as worried, surely?

Anyone?

The current infection numbers seem really concerning, but if we aren't seeing a corresponding rise in serious illness and admissions, then we don't need to be as worried, surely?

1. Hospitals are about 2 weeks behind infections, and Deaths are about 4 weeks behind - the wave has only just begun.

2. The delta variant is estimated to be possibly TWICE as serious as the Kent variant. Thankfully vaccines are pretty effective against stopping serious illness, but the % protection will be lower. How much lower is currently unknown, but it's unlikely to be the 90%+ we had before.

3. A lot of people are not vaccinated

4. A number of people who ARE vaccinated, will have little protection (e.g. anyone immuno compromised).

5. The first two waves were limited by lockdowns. If we don't plan to limit this wave, then infection numbers will be FAR FAR higher than previously. As it's a %'s game, that means that even IF we have lots of vaccine protection, with high enough rates of infection, hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

6. All of that is before we even start to talk about the inherent danger of allowing a virus to spread, uncontrolled, through a vaccinated population. The Indian variant is vaccine resistant by chance - it developed in a country prior to vaccines being deployed.... how bad will a new variant that develops in a vaccinated population going to be??

Thanks @strangeshapedpotato.
The delta variant isn't vaccine resistant, as far as I'm aware?

The best place to look for the current stats is

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

He has all sorts of graphs and data which is taken from the figures released by the UK and Scottish governments daily. Scroll down to see his "currently in hospital by day and nation" graph, and if you click on the 6m or All tabs you'll very clearly see the pattern of hospitalisation over the whole pandemic.

(Spoiler : peak in April 2020. bigger peak in Jan 2021. Current figures extremely low).

Just found this, which is interesting if slightly scary reading:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/covid-variants-delta-alpha-how-much-protection-vaccines

You can also look on the gov.U.K. Dashboard, although that will only tell you how many are currently in hospital and in icu, no details if they are vaccinated or not

The hospital data show on average 120 people are admitted each day and this continues

The overall number of people in hospital is reducing and is under 1000 so presumably most admitted are treated and out in day or so

Which suggests they are younger and not suffering serious doweasd

My trust had 36 last week. Earlier this year we had 450.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

846 admitted last 7 days but there’s still only 930 in hospital

So people are clearly going in then out quickly

Admissions have been same each week and are still reducing

I don’t think cases matter now younger affected

The delta variant isn't vaccine resistant, as far as I'm aware?

Of course it is!

We don't have exact figures yet, but the fact that so many single-jabbed folk are ending up in hospital is a sign that efficacy is reduced.

Efficacy at preventing onward transmission is likely to be substantially reduced, as evidenced by the sudden surge in R.

You hear people saying "the vaccine still work". Well, technically, even if they protected 1 person in a hundred, they'd still "work". What matters is the %'s and they're down. The current hope is that the protection against severe illness hasn't been impacted too much. But we've certainly gone from being in a position where achieving herd immunity seemed fairly imminent, to one in which it's likely impossible without effective boosters.

Chris Whitty explained it’s not a case of vaccines either working or not. They may be less effective against preventing infection or mild illness but still protect against serious illness or death.

2) The delta variant is estimated to be possibly TWICE as serious as the Kent variant

I'm not quite sure what you mean by this? I've heard and read that it's more transmissible than the Kent variant, but I haven't seen anywhere that it's more serious. Do you mean it kills twice as many people? Hospitalises twice as many people? Results in twice as many people needing oxygen? Do you have a source please?

@Toddlerteaplease

My trust had 36 last week. Earlier this year we had 450.

My Trust had 1 inpatient (yes 1) with covid yesterday. Like you we had over 400 earlier in the year.

@RichardMarxisinnocent

2) The delta variant is estimated to be possibly TWICE as serious as the Kent variant

I'm not quite sure what you mean by this? I've heard and read that it's more transmissible than the Kent variant, but I haven't seen anywhere that it's more serious. Do you mean it kills twice as many people? Hospitalises twice as many people? Results in twice as many people needing oxygen? Do you have a source please?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/india-covid-variant-may-increase-risk-of-hospital-admission-early-data-suggests

Links in the article to the underlying data if you're interested.

@RichardMarxisinnocent

2) The delta variant is estimated to be possibly TWICE as serious as the Kent variant

I'm not quite sure what you mean by this? I've heard and read that it's more transmissible than the Kent variant, but I haven't seen anywhere that it's more serious. Do you mean it kills twice as many people? Hospitalises twice as many people? Results in twice as many people needing oxygen? Do you have a source please?

Amongst the same population (e.g. same vaccine status and demographics) hospitalisations are estimated to be 2.61 x higher with the delta variant www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/india-covid-variant-may-increase-risk-of-hospital-admission-early-data-suggests

@RichardMarxisinnocent

Helps to explain why India was hit so badly when their younger population coped relatively well with the first wave. Clearly just anecdotal, but there were reports of hospitals full of younger patients.

To keep things in perspective it's important to note that there are two different issues here.

As an individual, should you fear the Delta variant?

If you're vaccinated, even with just a single dose, and not CEV then no. That doesn't mean zero risk! It just means a low risk, even if that risk has just doubled, its not particularly high. But no - you shouldn't fear it any more than you should fear blood clots from the AZ vaccine because we encounter risks in our lives all the time.

If you're not vaccinated, then you're a bit foolish not to fear it... That was true with the Kent variant - now your risk has just doubled..

Should we be concerned as a nation about the delta variant?

Yes - absolutely. Even though individual risks are low (see above), the fact that the variant spreads so easily, even through vaccinated people, means that VERY high numbers of people are going to end up infected. At that point those small percentages of vaccine "failures" are going to amount to quite high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths.

Are the hospital admissions numbers specifically people who are admitted because of Covid related problems, or just anyone who happens to be in hospital who has a positive Covid test?

For example, if I break my leg and have to go into hospital to have surgery and am identified as having asymptomatic Covid, do I count in the Covid hospital admissions stats? Even though the reason I am in hospital is nothing to do with Covid?

@Watapalava

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

846 admitted last 7 days but there’s still only 930 in hospital

So people are clearly going in then out quickly

Admissions have been same each week and are still reducing

I don’t think cases matter now younger affected

Yes, admission figures alone dont give a full picture. For example this shows figures from 5th May - 76 patients were admitted with (or because of) covid but 126 were discharged.

Yes you would, Random.

Attachment would help 😆

I often go here for statistics on Covid related stuff:

data.spectator.co.uk/

SS.Potato has minority views.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/india-covid-variant-may-increase-risk-of-hospital-admission-early-data-suggests

Links in the article to the underlying data if you're interested.

Thank you.
I guess though as long as admitted patients are being discharged fairly quickly as per a couple of other posts, there isn't currently grounds to be hugely concerned.

@RaspberryCoulis

Yes you would, Random.

No you wouldn't Random.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

clearly states Daily and cumulative numbers of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.