ONS Data

[strangeshapedpotato]

www.bbc.com/news/health-57362508

Hard to overstate what bad news this is.

There had been hope that efforts in Bolton etc were keeping it at bay, and the rise in cases reported by PHE was largely down to surge testing in virus hotspots.

Well it clearly wasn't - and a 2/3 rise in cases over a week when the Delta variant is still spreading across the country suggests that once it's everywhere, we could be looking at at least a doubling every week. That puts us 1 month away from numbers matching the peak of the second wave.

Hospitalisations will be delayed as usual, and should be proportional to infections, far lower than in Jan thanks to vaccines, but of course if the numbers keep climbing....

It's a real hammer blow.

Only if the vaccine doesn't work...

Pressed post too soon.

Only if the vaccine doesn't work, which according to all sources it does. It doesn't really matter if 100% of the population have it if nobody is dying and/or overwhelming the nhs.

@mcdog

Pressed post too soon.

Only if the vaccine doesn't work, which according to all sources it does. It doesn't really matter if 100% of the population have it if nobody is dying and/or overwhelming the nhs.

Clearly you know nothing about vaccines or viruses....

so why are you posting you ignorant and unwanted opinions?

@mcdog

Only if the vaccine doesn't work...

The vaccinations are countered by the increased transmissibility of Delta.

So while they do work, vaccines alone won't prevent the Third Wave.

@strangeshapedpotato

Clearly you know nothing about vaccines or viruses....

so why are you posting you ignorant and unwanted opinions?

You OK hun?

You don't get to dictate how other people respond when you post on a public forum OP. You're rude.

OP you don't get to dictate who responds on your thread. How rude and clearly you are not up for any discussion but just want people to agree with your opinion.

I thought the same as Mcdog, that vaccination means less severe effects when caught, thereby relieving pressure on the NHS and reducing death rates.
It seems this isn't the case so please enlighten me.

Just being open, and I guess I appreciate I’m tending towards the “so what” camp…

But what do you see as being the issue, @strangeshapedpotato?

It's not ideal, but older bods seem to be being protected by something. Still need to reduce cases to avoid mutations, obviously, but you know...

Im vulnerable but double jabbed. I thought this meant those of us like me were less likely to be hospitalised- that an increase in transmission would be in healthier people/less hospitalisation?

Id love a simple explanation wh6 this isnt the case (I used to follow the data threads avidly before I got covid....)

Also arent they supposed to have done all adults by end of july?

@TropicalFairyCake

Also arent they supposed to have done all adults by end of july?

"Offered a first dose"

Not done. Booked.

@strangeshapedpotato People are getting really sick of scaremongers OP.

[quote Rosehip10]@strangeshapedpotato People are getting really sick of scaremongers OP.[/quote]
I don't get the scaremongering thing.

We're all just expressing our opinions and our frustrations.

Save your anger for those in power who let this variant in, and let it spread through our largely unprotected children at school for the last 8 weeks. Taking away masks and opening things up to give it a helping hand.

so why are you posting you ignorant and unwanted opinions?

The irony.

Unfortunately, there are many many people who simply don't comprehend the situation. Maths and biology are not popular subjects. MN is full of people who cannot grasp the science.

I have a degree that involved science modules and a maths A level but I am not up to speed with why this is a problem right now. I thought vaccines were supposed to prevent the hospitalisation figures so that a third wave it wouldnt be as hard hitting. I need an easy link if anyone has one.

so why are you posting you ignorant and unwanted opinions?
Bloody hell.

I have never hated the word "scaremongers" so much. Actually it is interesting that people don't like to look at bad news and prefer denial. I didn't realise the extent of it before. I think it is the case of a lot of issue with rational thinking. It's a protection/defence mechanism. I think we really need to work on helping future generations be more resilient.

trouble is that we have a bad news denier with no ability to risk assess, accept other information or say 'I got it wrong'. And this fucker is running the country.

Way too late to stop infection from India. and yet again there will be a rush of the infected back to the UK before they have to quarantine, spreading it further. We're screwed.

@TropicalFairyCake

I have a degree that involved science modules and a maths A level but I am not up to speed with why this is a problem right now. I thought vaccines were supposed to prevent the hospitalisation figures so that a third wave it wouldnt be as hard hitting. I need an easy link if anyone has one.

Vaccine efficacy is a spectrum. The new variant reduces the efficacy. In lab tests they are showing one dose is only 33% effective. 2 dosed is 60% I believe. Older people lose immunity faster, many over 80's had their vaccines at start of year, there immunity might now be low. Many only have 1 dose. Kids and young people not vaccinated at all. This variant is much more transmissable. It is also looking like it causes more hospitalization than the alpha variant. It is spreading in schools and within households. Once R gets over 1 which it is now, it grows exponentially. It becomes much harder to contain. There is a 2/3 lag to hospitalizations and deaths. Furthermore, letting these variants spread in a partially vaccinated population, mean that the virus is shaped to evolve to evade the vaccines. Then we will be back to square one. What we need to do is get everyone double dosed, including kids over 12. We also need to booster older people. We need masks, ventilation and people isolating and doing testing.

@murbblurb

trouble is that we have a bad news denier with no ability to risk assess, accept other information or say 'I got it wrong'. And this fucker is running the country.

Way too late to stop infection from India. and yet again there will be a rush of the infected back to the UK before they have to quarantine, spreading it further. We're screwed.

I think you're right.

The point is, the third wave is happening irrespective of whether people understand, believe, are ready for it or have had enough of it. So no point moaning. We need to adapt. That is exactly how nature and humans survive these things. By adapting. It seems everyone wants to pretend it's not happening and avoid adapting. That will mean evolution will take place and those that adapt will have more chance of surviving. Can't fight it. Need to work with the situation we have been dealt.