IF the 21st June easing happens will it have a positive or negative effect on the economy?

[wheresmymojo]

There are already threads about whether the 21st June end of all COVID regulations will happen and whether it should happen...

I'm interested in whether people think it will have a positive or negative impact on the economy if it goes ahead?

The reasoning behind it being needed is to provide a boost to the economy I.e. pubs and restaurants would be able to fill back up to capacity if social distancing was removed...

However a lot of people I know who are currently going to shops/pubs/restaurants have said they wouldn't want to if social distancing was removed.

At least until there is more concrete evidence about how ill vaccinated people can get from the Indian variant.

For example - you may not die but what about long COVID?

If social distancing stopped on the 21st will you spending more money in the economy or less?

Your options don’t take into account if restrictions ease on 21st June, whether it will result in another lockdown and more restrictions which could have a more negative effect on the economy than pausing the roadmap for a few more weeks.

Typical scaremongering thread with poor attempt to dress up as something else

Fgs, boom of course it will! Most people understand that being vaccinated protects them from serious illness, I'm in my mid 50's and will be out there jostling with the crowds on 21st if we can, bring it on!

@wheresmymojo
"However a lot of people I know who are currently going to shops/pubs/restaurants have said they wouldn't want to if social distancing was removed."

This is odd isn't it. I think sometimes we must all exist so exclusively in our own little groups of like minded people.... as I genuinely don't know anyone who feels like this! In fact my friends and family will be genuinely much more likely to go out properly when social distancing requirements are eased completely. We can't wait to seethe back of it all. 🤷‍♀️
So in answer to your question OP, in the short term I would expect an uplift. Long term? Who knows....

About the same as now, only online places are being supported by us. No desire to go out currently to places indoors and shopping we mainly did online anyway before all this.
I suspect it will have a boost then as cases rise it will dip and if another wave comes and we are back in restrictions then obviously it will dip even further.

[quote Wilkolampshade]@wheresmymojo
"However a lot of people I know who are currently going to shops/pubs/restaurants have said they wouldn't want to if social distancing was removed."

This is odd isn't it. I think sometimes we must all exist so exclusively in our own little groups of like minded people.... as I genuinely don't know anyone who feels like this! In fact my friends and family will be genuinely much more likely to go out properly when social distancing requirements are eased completely. We can't wait to seethe back of it all. 🤷‍♀️
So in answer to your question OP, in the short term I would expect an uplift. Long term? Who knows....[/quote]
Same, most people I know don’t really want to go out until the faff of booking tables in every bar and masks, social distancing etc are gone! They can’t wait to get back to normal.

For example - you may not die but what about long COVID?

What about it?

Post-viral syndrome has always existed and always will. So are these 'friends' of yours planning on never going out unless businesses slash their profits to accommodate them?

And if your question is genuine, then of course opening up will help the economy. Social distancing is often shrugged off as a 'minor mitigation' on MN but it makes all sorts of businesses completely unviable. Losing the custom of the relatively small number of people concerned about 'safety' is vastly outweighed by the profits which can be made from abandoning restrictions.

I am 30 and no one I know in my age group is scared of Covid. I can guarantee the majority of younger people will be happy to go out with no social distancing in place.

I'd be spending more. Masks are very much impacting on how much I go out as my glasses mist up and I feel breathless in them. Once we can ditch masks I will be out spending money again.

Should add I've never been worried about catching covid. We had it in our household at Xmas and antibody test says I didn't catch it then. I work in a nursery with no masks or social distancing, no cases there. The likely hood of me catching it in a shop is low.

I will spend more as it is a pita having to book everything and puts me off going, with shopping I just go quickly in and out of shops without browsing because of masks. As for long covid that has been about for years under different guises such as post viral syndrome and years ago yuppie flu

Well, in February 2020 toilet roll sales went through the roof but hospitality take plummeted.

In August 2020 Eat Out To Help Out helped boost hospitality and the second wave began.

A lot depends on the messages the public take on and our behaviour.

Are the pubs rammed in Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford?

That might be a good indicator of how the public behave with a more transmissible variant filling covid wards locally.

Pubs aren’t rammed anywhere currently because there still is social distancing in place.

Judging from the number of people who reach right across my face to get things in supermarkets (rather than just wait a few seconds for me to move off, I'm not a ditherer!), I think most people don't give a shiny shit about social distancing. I can't imagine many will be put off going out.

I agree, SkankingMopoke. It's not so much the people I know personally, it's the number of people I see in town abandoning social distancing and all queueing close together to buy takeaways or get into pub gardens.

I had to ask a guy to take his foot off the back of my flipflop today.

@Tumbleweed101 and less ppl will be willing to do so if they have to wear a mask in the hot weather.

The pavements outside pubs are pretty rammed where i am.

I'll spend much more freely when having a face and lip reading is no longer a social faux pas, places are back at full capacity and spontenaity and browsing are permissible again.

Far too many things are too beaurocratic and demanding to be worth wasting money and time on at present.

Very short term positive, long term negative.

Sales will inevitably rise if restrictions were to be eased, however in this case we'll end up back in lockdown very quickly which will kill off many businesses.

Sales will inevitably rise if restrictions were to be eased, however in this case we'll end up back in lockdown very quickly which will kill off many businesses.

I kinda feel like if we "end up back in lockdown very quickly" with 70-85% of adults vaccinated then we are probably completely fucked, both as a country and probably as a species. It would basically prove the point that if one of the best (at vaccinating) countries in the world cannot keep up with emerging variants, then other countries have no chance.

In which case, why bother with any of it?

When did lockdown change from something that was absolutely a last resort to save our NHS from collapse, to something we should just pop back into because some people are feeling a little unsafe?

What happened to learning to live with the virus...

I don't actually know anyone IRL who isn't prepared to live with the virus which is interesting as OP seems to have exactly the opposite experience.

I think short term boom but long term bust. People will absolutely rush out to stuff themselves into pubs like sardines but the rise will be too much for our current vaccination rate and stage and we'll end up locked down in autumn, if not before, which we will pay for even harder than we'd pay for a few more socially distanced weeks.

@Rosehip10

Typical scaremongering thread with poor attempt to dress up as something else

Eh?

I'm double vaccinated so I'm fine with the 21st.

Stop trying to find something that isn't there.

Of course it'll help the economy immediately.

The issue is if it's too soon then it'll hurt it more down the line. I.e. eat out to help out.

It depends if you're a short-termist I guess.

Was August 2020's month of Eat Out To Help Out worth being in restrictions from October 2020 to June 2021?

Was that helpful to the economy?

Is having a useless test, trace and isolate system and a pointless border "traffic light" policy helpful to the economy?

Is letting covid waves happen over and over and over again helpful to the economy?

I don't get all the people suggesting we'd be back in lockdown in the autumn.... regardless of what happens between now and then... come the autumn most of the population will have had both vaccines. If we need to lockdown with everyone being vaccinated then what's the point as it will be a never ending cycle.

People are so scared now I dread the hysteria every few months when a news story about a potential new virus comes around (let's be honest it used to happen a couple of times a year)