Hybrid Covid variants AND delaying restrictions because NHS are overwhelmed by non-Covid patients??

ILookAtTheFloor · 30/05/2021 07:45

Yep, completely agree OP.

The genie is out of the bottle now, it's impossible to get it back in. There will be calls for lockdown every winter.

Hope BoJo keeps his nerve.

HazeyJaneII · 30/05/2021 07:52

Hope BoJo keeps his nerve.

For fucks sake, he's not some arse kicking leader with nerves of steel and a forensic plan, he's a shambles of a prime minister who has mishandled this crisis since the beginning.

We have to delay 21st June opening...
The news is no more certain about this than it's ever been. The plan has always been that things will move forward if conditions allow them, but things will have to stall dependant on certain criteria...one of which is variants, another of which is how the NHS is coping.

It is a shit situation, but hopefully onethat is improving, hyperbole won't make things move any faster or make anything easier to deal with.

bumbleymummy · 30/05/2021 07:58

The NHS is always under pressure. It’s been stretched and underfunded for years. Now it trying to play catch up. Maybe we should try to actually invest money where it’s needed and help it to be able to cope instead of throwing away millions on crappy not fit for purpose track and trace apps, shutting down the economy and restricting everybody’s lives for months on end.

FakeFruitShoot · 30/05/2021 08:04

"Hybrid variant" sounds terrifying doesn't it? But as I understand it, it just means a variant with features of both the Indian and the Kent variant. Given that viruses are constantly mutating, it doesn't seem that much of a surprise.

21st June seems totally pie-in-the-sky at the moment, but then things like the Brit Awards and other big indoor events only registered less than a handful of cases each... It all just seems so random.

AntiHop · 30/05/2021 08:09

We have to delay 21st June opening because the NHS is becoming overwhelmed with NON Covid patients? I mean, I understand the logic behind what they’re saying but... seriously?!

That's not what the article says. No where does it say the NHS is becoming "overwhelmed". The article says the nhs is "busy", which is very different to overwhelmed. The NHS being busy right now is hardly surprising.

The article does NOT say "We have to delay 21st June opening". It says "More informed debate was needed over ending coronavirus restrictions in England on 21 June, he added." The man who says this in the article is not in charge of government covid policy.

The article writes about the positive impact of the vaccines.

SpindleWhorl · 30/05/2021 08:11

I am now operating on the assumption that the 'end of lockdown' isn't happening on 21/6. Tbh I never had much hope, anyway.

he's a shambles of a prime minister who has mishandled this crisis since the beginning

It's hard to disagree with this ^^

UnmentionedElephantDildo · 30/05/2021 08:12

The NHS had no spare capacity and has about a year's worth of patients in most branches of work to catch up on.

The pressure on staff isn't going away because covid recedes (periodically/seasonally or permanently)

SpindleWhorl · 30/05/2021 08:14

The article says the nhs is "busy", which is very different to overwhelmed.

My GP health centre is overwhelmed. If patients' main source of primary care is overwhelmed, the system is fucked.

The PM should have been investing in the NHS, notably primary care, for over a year. He hasn't.

CrunchyCarrot · 30/05/2021 08:39

The NHS is going to be 'busy' for a very, very long time now with all the backlog of operations. The lack of investment in the NHS and training new doctors/nurses is really showing now.

We are being 'seeded' with the idea that restrictions may not end on 21st June, very subtly.

vera99 · 30/05/2021 09:21

The health crisis of poor diet, obesity, and endemic unfitness has been a thing in anglophone western countries for decades now. It has taken the hammer of covid to push us over the edge. There has never been a more urgent time to address those issues on both a societal and personal level than ever before. (message to self - cut down on the drinking, lose 10kg, and do more exercise!).

SempreSuiGeneris · 30/05/2021 10:45

The pressure on the NHS is coming from people seeking care who had postponed it due to restrictions. Prolonging restrictions looks likely to exacerbate the problem rather than help it. Got to be better to have an earlier longer run at dealing with the backlog starting now than continue kicking the can into the winter.

Lots of conflicting pressures being recognised but no-one prepared to break cover about making the hard decisions re capacity - magic up some more, look at whether current quarantining measures are necessary and actually work, utilise social care more efficiently to minimise hospital stays, ration care.

oystercatcher44 · 30/05/2021 10:56

Covid is not going to disappear for the forseeable future. Anyone who believes it is is deluded. There is nothing any government can do to change this.

Until the whole world is vaccinated, variants will continue to evolve and those variants will travel across the world unless we ban all travel forever.

With close monitoring, it should be possible to identify new variants as they arrive and observe whether they break through vaccine protection in significant numbers.

As things currently stand, there is evidence that the variants now identified impact on those who are not vaccinated and those who have had only one vaccine enough to lead to an increase in hospitalisations. This probably - evidence is still being collected - means it would be unwise to open up fully on 21 June. Another month’s data should be enough to make a properly informed decision.

I do not think any of this is the fault of this or any other government.

strangeshapedpotato · 30/05/2021 10:56

@FakeFruitShoot

"Hybrid variant" sounds terrifying doesn't it? But as I understand it, it just means a variant with features of both the Indian and the Kent variant. Given that viruses are constantly mutating, it doesn't seem that much of a surprise.

21st June seems totally pie-in-the-sky at the moment, but then things like the Brit Awards and other big indoor events only registered less than a handful of cases each... It all just seems so random.

True regarding the events. But that's mostly because prevalence of the virus is extremely low across the UK and had R stayed at or below 1, it would have stayed that way.

But in certain areas, R is now well above 1. Although nationally, growth is still low, that's only because the Indian variant is still spreading across the country.

So the prediction is that if restrictions are eased, then the increase will be doubling every few days, rather than weekly....

Lucidas · 30/05/2021 11:14

@SpindleWhorl

The article says the nhs is "busy", which is very different to overwhelmed.

My GP health centre is overwhelmed. If patients' main source of primary care is overwhelmed, the system is fucked.

The PM should have been investing in the NHS, notably primary care, for over a year. He hasn't.

Agreed.

It’s a disaster, so many conditions are being missed and the knock on effects are enormous.

Iggly · 30/05/2021 11:20

@vera99

The health crisis of poor diet, obesity, and endemic unfitness has been a thing in anglophone western countries for decades now. It has taken the hammer of covid to push us over the edge. There has never been a more urgent time to address those issues on both a societal and personal level than ever before. (message to self - cut down on the drinking, lose 10kg, and do more exercise!).

Sadly taking personal responsibility will only get you so far. Our towns, cities, workplaces are designed for car users, minimising movement, keeping us in one place for as long as possible - think how easier it is to hop into a car than walk somewhere. All of that stacks up to make it harder to walk to places. This has been a problem decades in the making.

Furthermore, the rise in ultra processed foods, even those you wouldn’t think of (eg bread, pasta sauces etc) - means that we are unwittingly eating badly too.

It will take a huge huge overhaul in society and stripping out hidden corporate influence on politicians to make us a healthier nation.

I’m just angry at successive governments for enabling this to happen.

Iggly · 30/05/2021 11:21

I do not think any of this is the fault of this or any other government

While governments can’t be blamed for what viruses do (mutate), they can be blamed for enabling the spread with poor border controls and easing restrictions too quickly or not having a lockdown sooner. Those things make it more likely for viruses to mutate.

strangeshapedpotato · 30/05/2021 11:50

@oystercatcher44

Covid is not going to disappear for the forseeable future. Anyone who believes it is is deluded. There is nothing any government can do to change this.

Until the whole world is vaccinated, variants will continue to evolve and those variants will travel across the world unless we ban all travel forever.

With close monitoring, it should be possible to identify new variants as they arrive and observe whether they break through vaccine protection in significant numbers.

As things currently stand, there is evidence that the variants now identified impact on those who are not vaccinated and those who have had only one vaccine enough to lead to an increase in hospitalisations. This probably - evidence is still being collected - means it would be unwise to open up fully on 21 June. Another month’s data should be enough to make a properly informed decision.

I do not think any of this is the fault of this or any other government.

With close monitoring, it should be possible to identify new variants as they arrive and observe whether they break through vaccine protection in significant numbers.

That's ONLY possible if you have ultra low/zero cases locally which is why the world is going to divide neatly into nations that achieve this, and those that don't. Travel between the two will remain problematic for decades.

The biggest issue with the Indian variant ISN'T to do with it causing more serious disease - it's that the vaccines don't stop transmission as effectively (hardly at all after one dose). And it's a simple fact of mathematics that if infection numbers rise, hospitalisations will no matter WHICH variant we are dealing with! In short, it's quickly destroying the partial herd immunity the UK had developed.

bumblingbovine49 · 30/05/2021 16:18

@vera99

The health crisis of poor diet, obesity, and endemic unfitness has been a thing in anglophone western countries for decades now. It has taken the hammer of covid to push us over the edge. There has never been a more urgent time to address those issues on both a societal and personal level than ever before. (message to self - cut down on the drinking, lose 10kg, and do more exercise!).

Of course it is the fault of the fat and unfit in rich countries (European & US ) and in less rich countries ( India, Brazil) it is the fault of the poor because poverty affects how healthy someone is

Lots of lovely victim blaming going on there. Whilst I don't dispute that some people can't withstand illness as well as others , the reasons for that are many and varied , not all of them are in the control of the person themselves. Why the need to blame individuals for their susceptibility to a virus? I assume to make you feel safer and superior at the same time

Tommika · 30/05/2021 16:30

Note that the go/no go of each step of the roadmap gets announced 7 days in advance.
This means for 21 June we have two weeks to wait until 14 June and will have constant speculation on whether or not the date will go ahead or be delayed

Ostara212 · 30/05/2021 19:50

AFAICS it's just the BBC running this, are they good with scoops?
I heard it said here that Glasgow wasn't changing anything for the same reason so it certainly seems possible.

MercyBooth · 30/05/2021 21:04

Ugh. Chris Hopson again!

MercyBooth · 30/05/2021 21:39

@bumblingbovine49 Totally agree.

MercyBooth · 30/05/2021 22:14

THREAD

twitter.com/mitrebarnet/status/1398961836423254022?s=20

MarshaBradyo · 30/05/2021 22:18

@Tommika

Note that the go/no go of each step of the roadmap gets announced 7 days in advance. This means for 21 June we have two weeks to wait until 14 June and will have constant speculation on whether or not the date will go ahead or be delayed

Yes we won’t know until June 14

I don’t think it’s easy to know either way yet