Local lockdowns!

[november90]

Hi all,
Just read a concerning article about the top ten places likely to fall into a local lockdown, all concerningly in the north west and very close to my hometown Lancaster and I'm feeling absolutely gutted. We were in local lockdown since September last year, cafes never reopened since they closed for the November lockdown until last week... we cannot keep doing this! How likely is this actually going to be? Is the north west just always going to be majorly locked down even when vaccinated :(

Where's the article?

Is there a link?

www.lep.co.uk/news/politics/local-lockdowns-preston-burnley-blackburn-and-wigan-among-the-council-areas-in-lancashire-and-the-north-west-most-likely-to-be-hit-by-tier-system-as-the-indian-variant-threatens-covid-roadmap-3245858?page=3

Sorry guys link above. I've seen a few other things recently posted online prior to this too. I think I'm still sensitive from how hard it's been up here so any sort of whisper about it hits home for me.

This is just speculation by a local paper. It’s not anything official, and not exactly rocket science as it’s really just the top 20 areas by case rate.

That's what's happening here in Scotland.

Won't happen. The vaccines are effective. It's just the local rag baiting for clicks.

Can you post the towns as I can't see the towns listed other than Wigan

That is just the top ten in that area though, Bedford would also be likely included but as it is not relevant to the area it's not on that list

Also north west in an area affected by the poor track and trace issue with the Indian variant and yes, I think it’s a possibility. It will be devastating but I’m not sure what the alternative is? Fingers well and truly crossed the vaccine does it’s job.

Hospital admissions and deaths are still dropping why would they put an area in lockdown

The LEP is a sensationalist rag, try not to take it too seriously.

What are the hospitals like?

Lockdowns are more in place to stop hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

They really don’t mind if you or I become sick, but if we risk a hospital having to start turning emergency cases away, then they will care.

At the moment whilst hot spots are concerning, as far as I am aware (happy to be corrected) I don’t believe any hospitals are overwhelmed.

The next few weeks will tell us a lot.

Hopefully it’s just the local paper trying to get clicks...but I am in your area too and Lancs schools/colleges are having to keep wearing masks until June 21st due to the Bolton/Blackburn cases.....and Lancs is a big place

Local PHE may decide that short term lockdowns would benefit areas of exponential growth.

However that's based on much more than just cases.

And it's just "may" decide. So far the narrative is that they don't want to go down that route and I really don't think Boris will advocate it. (And if he does get forced into it it'll be too late then anyway and be national again if his track record is anything to go by).

But right now in the immediate I don't foresee any more closures or lockdowns - just maybe a delay of the June abandon all plan.

Local PHE may decide that short term lockdowns would benefit areas of exponential growth. However that's based on much more than just cases.

And what they decide and what, at this stage, people do, are likely to be very different things.

Agree with many of the posters that it’s not just about high rates. Bolton is very heavily skewed towards schools, rates in over 60s are still very low which means hospitalisations unlikely to rise.

Many schools finished for half term last Friday, although some don’t finish until this week. Our GM borough has two weeks off for this half term. I am hopeful that, just like Easter, this will serve as a mini firebreak and bring the rates down again in those areas.

LEP is almost always full of shit, try not to worry too much

I genuinely don't think people will comply this time, especially with hospitalisations and deaths at virtually zero (ie people will just go to restaurants, pubs in other areas - I know I would). You can only pull the wool over peoples' eyes for so long.

@Moondust001

Local PHE may decide that short term lockdowns would benefit areas of exponential growth. However that's based on much more than just cases.

And what they decide and what, at this stage, people do, are likely to be very different things.

Well that would be up to government whether they made it guidelines or law.

But I really do not think they will go down the local lockdown route again. They'll go down engagement and education and testing and tracing.

I think if they did local lockdowns again it would trigger another crisis.

Well that would be up to government whether they made it guidelines or law.

They can’t enforce things like household mixing, so it doesn’t really matter.

I honestly fee like I have some mild form of ptsd from all these local and full lockdowns. Liek o said in my area we've been in either a local or full lockdown since September! I'll be devastated if they start all of this again! My toddler is now a child and my baby is now a toddler, I feel like I'm missing out on so much!

Lockdowns don't work anyway.
This has now been proven in the US as per real-life study below.
The only reason governments like ours are continuing with this nonsense is to save face.

www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28804/w28804.pdf
"During the first four months of 2021, the United States distributed approximately 250 million doses of COVID-19 vaccinations, which resulted in the complete vaccination of nearly 45 percent of the adult population. In the midst of this mass vaccination effort, Texas became the first state to abolish its statewide mask mandate and fully lift capacity constraints for all businesses.
"Governor Greg Abbott’s order was met with (i) concern by public health officials that an early reopening would lead to a resurgence of COVID-19, and (ii) assertions by Texas politicians that a
reopening would generate short-run employment growth. This study provides the first empirical evidence on these claims. First, using daily anonymized smartphone data on social mobility from SafeGraph, Inc. — and synthetic control and difference-in-differences approaches — we find no evidence that the Texas reopening led to substantial changes in social mobility, including foot traffic at a wide set of business establishments in Texas. Second, using daily data on new
COVID-19 cases from the New York Times, we find no evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening. Our null results persist across more urbanized and less urbanized counties, as well as across counties that supported Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we find no evidence that the Texas reopening order impacted short-run employment. Together, our null
findings underscore the limits of late-pandemic era COVID-19 reopening policies to alter private behavior."

They know local lockdowns don't work. People just travel - look what happened in the North West at Xmas when virtually everyone in a 100 mile radius just decamped to Liverpool to shop, eat and drink.

Besides which it just won't happen. Vaccines are working, hospitalisations haven't increased. If you feel like this is affecting your mental health just stop reading covid related things online for a while. It really does help to ignore all the sensationalist shit out there.

No one will comply. These are the same areas that were in restrictions all last year and people just won’t do it any more. They will just tank local business but won’t stop the spread.
They just need to get everyone jabbed and then get on with life.

I agree with others that people won’t comply with localised restrictions. The farce of seeing idiots from a T3/T4 area dining and drinking in a T2 zone last year will be a lesson learned.

It will have to be national measures. Expect the gov to drag their feet on this though because a new lockdown would be a sign the vaccine rollout hasn’t made as much of an impact in keeping rates down as they claimed it would. It would also be a blow to fledgling hospitality and leisure businesses who would have to close again without the hope that vaccines can save them long term.