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What risk is acceptable?

21 replies

strangeshapedpotato · 21/05/2021 15:19

So much concern about the AZ vaccine, despite only a handful of clots being reported.

262 cases (51 deaths) now after 30 million doses - or about a 1 in 450,000 risk of death.

If this is enough to panic people, what risk is NOT enough??

1 in a million?
1 in 10 million?

Just curious really at what level people stop worrying about risk?

OP posts:
XenoBitch · 21/05/2021 15:24

If you are anxious, then you focus on the small odds.
People also buy lottery tickets that have small odds too.

frozendaisy · 21/05/2021 15:25

Clearly most people are getting their vaccines, message boards will always be overrepresented by people scared of things.

Pumperthepumper · 21/05/2021 15:34

I think the issue with anxiety is you know you’re being paranoid but that doesn’t really help you - it’s always enough of a chance that it’ll happen to you. Also when people have a specific fear they automatically seek out things to validate that fear, like if they’re aware of the worst-case scenario then they’ll know what to look out for.

I’ve never really been on the Covid boards before the last few days but I feel like I’ve fallen down a rabbit hole. I’m a rational person (most of the time) so the risk doesn’t bother me, but if my anxiety was sky-high, this would be the worst place to be.

Pumperthepumper · 21/05/2021 15:36

And I think there’s also a kind of brain-barrier to humans when processing numbers, 10 million is such a huge number to contemplate that it’s kind of meaningless. So 1 in 10 million doesn’t really reassure because it’s too difficult a sum.

SempreSuiGeneris · 21/05/2021 15:45

And what is the risk of death for an under 50 with no health conditions? Again infinitesimally small and yet risking not getting vaccinated is seen as irrational whereas risking vaccine harm is rational?

The official risk stats are at 1 in 80,000 rather than the calculation in the Op. The Regulators set the barrier somewhat higher than mere survival post vaccination.

If you want to be taken seriously don't redraft the official stats to suit your agenda.

Rainbowsandstorms · 21/05/2021 16:03

For me 1 in a million would be acceptable and I accepted my first dose when we were being told this was the rate however the ever increasing more than 1 in 50,000 in my age group, 30s, when I’m at low risk from covid doesn’t feel acceptable. In Norway clots were recorded in 1 in 20,000 doses of AZ. I think a lot of stats are being misquoted by people trying to make out that the risks as very rare. I consistently see people quoting outdated statistics on here or twisting them to suit their narrative. These are not straight forward clots and the people who haven’t died from them may well have serious long term issues as a result and there will be some cases recorded who haven’t died but sadly won’t survive.

The risk has steadily increased week up on week so as of yet we don’t know what the true risk is. Nor are the mrha being transparent with the risk per age group it’s striking that they publish the number of clots and the number of deaths per age band but still aren’t publishing the number of doses given per age group, so no one can work out the actual incidence by age. Transparency is key to trust. I’m so sick of seeing people being branded as irrational for being concerned about this issue.

ashley69ly · 21/05/2021 16:12

What people are failing to take into account is that altough these clots have occurred after the vaccine, a certain number of them would happen anyway even without the vaccine. I've been trying and failing to find out what the underlying rate is so that i can see what the actual rate caused(maybe) by the vaccine. I know of one person who has had this type of clot and survived but hers was 6 years ago so nothing to do with the vaccine. And she's since had the Az vaccine.

nordica · 21/05/2021 16:33

What people are failing to take into account is that altough these clots have occurred after the vaccine, a certain number of them would happen anyway even without the vaccine.

No, this is incorrect. These are very specific type of clotting events with low platelets, it has been linked with the AZ and J&J vaccines (the only adenovirus vector vaccines currently in use) and specifically named VITT (Vaccine induced Thrombosis and Thrombocytopenia). These clots happened because of the vaccine.

There haven't been any like this with Pfizer or Moderna, although there have been some other (more typical) types of clots which could have happened anyway.

IndigoC · 21/05/2021 16:49

Your information is out of date. It’s 309 events and 56 deaths. Overall incidence is 1 in 81,000 and falling (quite fast). Risk for a healthy forty-something is likely to be well under 1 in 50K.

CutieBear · 21/05/2021 16:54

There is also a tiny risk that someone under 60 with no health conditions will die with Covid19. Why are governments so obsessed with vaccinating everyone rather than just the vulnerable?

Pumperthepumper · 21/05/2021 17:41

@CutieBear

There is also a tiny risk that someone under 60 with no health conditions will die with Covid19. Why are governments so obsessed with vaccinating everyone rather than just the vulnerable?
What’s your theory? Why would they be?
Walkaround · 21/05/2021 17:44

There are many ways of perceiving risk.

You could just decide any risk of death, however remote, as the direct result of a vaccine is too much for you to cope with, as the consequence is so serious, even if phenomenally rare. The warnings pregnant women are given about the risks of, eg, toxoplasmosis or listeriosis, make me think of this. Personally, I found the stress and anxiety caused to me by being told about the horrible things that could happen if I got these infections during my first pregnancy, when I was highly anxious and terrified of the idea of being somehow responsible for any harm that came to my unborn child, however unlikely, caused far more harm to my state of mind during my first pregnancy than was remotely justified by the actual risks. I therefore think it was massively unhelpful to have told me about them, as I would have had a happier pregnancy without information more likely to be scaremongering and pointless than helpful to me, given how remote the chances were of me getting toxoplasmosis or listeriosis and this killing or maiming my baby, in the first place. I wasted time panicking about gardening and food products because I was so terrified of the dire consequences I simply didn’t care how unlikely they were to happen, I just felt I had to make certain they could never possibly happen because I would be unable to cope with the consequences of them happening now that knowledge had turned something that would just have been extremely bad luck if I had got it before being told into something I might now forever feel was “my fault” for not being careful enough.

Alternatively, you could just look at the risk and decide it’s such a small risk, you don’t care about it, even if the risk is of fatal consequences. After all, plenty of people never play lotteries on the same type of logic - that they are astronomically more likely to be a waste of money than to win you great riches, so not something to be bothered about.

Alternatively, you could just weigh up the objective personal risks and benefits. With a vaccine, what are the personal benefits to be weighed up against the personal risks? When doing this, some people seem to forget that a societal benefit is not mutually exclusive from a mutual benefit, as the two significantly overlap. Some people, for example, ask questions like why should they risk themselves to protect others, whilst conveniently ignoring the fact that society opening up, hospitals being less busy, travel being allowed again, job prospects improving again, people feeling relaxed around each other again, are humongous benefits to them personally as well as to the rest of society, and it has been shown time and again that people seriously underestimate how easily virus mutations and uncontrolled spread in any age group can mess plans up, because of a failure to comprehend what the magnitude of those risks actually is (even though proven to be a greater risk every single time it has happened so far than our leaders thought it would be). The calculations on whether personal benefit is outweighed by personal risk also fail to factor this bit of the analysis in properly, as the mathematics of that is too uncertain to be able to work it out (especially as dependent on the leadership in the country you live in and the prevailing attitude in the majority of the population).

Alternatively, you could be an unusually rare sort of person who is utterly selfless and would have a vaccine regardless of the personal risk to you, just because society as a whole would benefit if everyone were vaccinated regardless of personal risk. I’m not sure this sort of person really exists in this purest of forms!

Walkaround · 21/05/2021 17:49

societal risk not mutually exclusive from a personal* benefit!

Walkaround · 21/05/2021 18:02

(Third time lucky: societal benefit is not mutually exclusive from a personal benefit as the two significantly overlap!)

strangeshapedpotato · 21/05/2021 18:55

@IndigoC

Your information is out of date. It’s 309 events and 56 deaths. Overall incidence is 1 in 81,000 and falling (quite fast). Risk for a healthy forty-something is likely to be well under 1 in 50K.
Sorry, but that's garbage.

For starters, the risk is unrelated to age.

Secondly, the source is dated 5th May which is recent enough for this:
www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine

I think I'll trust the BHF over an internet troll.

OP posts:
strangeshapedpotato · 21/05/2021 18:56

@SempreSuiGeneris

And what is the risk of death for an under 50 with no health conditions? Again infinitesimally small and yet risking not getting vaccinated is seen as irrational whereas risking vaccine harm is rational?

The official risk stats are at 1 in 80,000 rather than the calculation in the Op. The Regulators set the barrier somewhat higher than mere survival post vaccination.

If you want to be taken seriously don't redraft the official stats to suit your agenda.

I quoted the official statistics.

You appear to be making them up, so who has the agenda?

www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine

OP posts:
SempreSuiGeneris · 21/05/2021 19:14

A magazine article from a couple of weeks ago versus the .gov.uk summary from yesterday Hmm

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

loweylo · 21/05/2021 19:28

The government website lists the risk for 30-39 as 1 in 50000.

I’m not saying it’s a high risk, but these are the official current stats.

What risk is acceptable?
loweylo · 21/05/2021 19:29

It appears the MHRA do calculate the risk as being higher in younger age groups.

littlepeas · 21/05/2021 20:51

The analogy above regarding toxoplasmosis, etc, is a good one. Also taking the vaccine is a deliberate action whereas catching covid (and becoming seriously unwell) is more abstract.

Rainbowsandstorms · 21/05/2021 21:22

@strangeshapedpotato before being so unnecessarily rude the poster who provided accurate information and dismissing the facts they provided as ‘garbage’ you may want to check your facts. Here’s the proof of the 309 events and 56 deaths. I believe someone further up has provided proof that the risk is higher for younger people. Here’s the link to the report www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

What risk is acceptable?
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