If the vulnerable are vaccinated, why are we at risk of another wave?

[sammysnake]

Just that really. I don't understand why we are at risk of a bigger third wave if the majority of at risk are vaccinated. If we are at risk then what was the point of the vaccinations?

Is it a wave of infections from a new variant?

Because we don’t know if the vaccines are effective against this new variant

People can still get the virus, the point of the vaccine was so people don’t suffer from it as badly as before, therefore less people needing hospitalisation and less deaths.

The worry is the new variants and whether the vaccine will have the same effect on them

We aren't.
It's bollocks.
There are lots of people in SAGE etc who are clinging onto their 15 minutes of fame for dear life.
Let's all come back to this thread in 6 weeks at the start of July.
100 per cent - there will be lots more cases but hospitalisations and deaths will be at manageable levels (as per public policy guidelines).

Suppose the vulnerable group are 16 million people.
and that Vaccine programme is 'only' 95% effective.
5% of 16 million is 800,000 people.

90% of them still only get fairly mild covid when they finally catch it.
That leaves a mere 80,000 who would be very ill, of whom 20,000 die.
Maybe over space of one year.

I might think that's acceptable but most people won't agree.

@savethegrannies

We aren't. It's bollocks. There are lots of people in SAGE etc who are clinging onto their 15 minutes of fame for dear life. Let's all come back to this thread in 6 weeks at the start of July. 100 per cent - there will be lots more cases but hospitalisations and deaths will be at manageable levels (as per public policy guidelines).

This is what I thought... that the lower hospital admissions mean that it's manageable. I thought the Indian variation was more transmissible but not more virulent? Otherwise it's an endless cycle of needing booster vaccines every five minutes and locking down just in case.

Because people love doom-mongering

@savethegrannies

We aren't. It's bollocks. There are lots of people in SAGE etc who are clinging onto their 15 minutes of fame for dear life. Let's all come back to this thread in 6 weeks at the start of July. 100 per cent - there will be lots more cases but hospitalisations and deaths will be at manageable levels (as per public policy guidelines).

This. It's nonsense.

Just an excuse to keep us locked down.

@savethegrannies totally agree. Covid has changed the life of some for the better and they don’t want the gravy train or limelight to end.

Placemarking @savethegrannies I really hope you’re right!!

I saw something that suggested it might not even be more transmissible, but that those who have it, especially those who have travelled, means they're more likely to live in close proximity to others and that's why it's being passed on more. But who knows what the hell the truth is.

Well I have only recently confirmed as CEV (should have been from the start, apparently) and have only had 1 jab so far. I can't be the only 1

I listened to Boris and I don’t think he said we are at risk of a bigger wave. What was said was there are a lot they don’t know,so they want to watch it, he said the Indian variant was thought to be only marginally more transmissable but they don’t have enough evidence, and if it turns out to be significantly more transmissable then it could lead to a change in thr road map.

He also said the vaccines are effective against it.

I honestly think what’s happening now sith the government is about caution . They don’t know.

Very little was said about how fatal it was. If anything was said, I missed it.

There is also a lot of scaremongering going on. The daily fail etc really ramping it up for click bait.

Also I just had a look at the fail, they are misrepresenting. Sage has presented a range of scenarios, inc worst case, and the fail has focused on that and totally buried the fact it’s potentially only to be marginal

There is also a lot of scaremongering going on.

There always is on this board.

Because new variants can be immune to the vaccine, the vaccine is not 100% protection and not everyone has been vaccinated!

@Coldwine75

Because new variants can be immune to the vaccine, the vaccine is not 100% protection and not everyone has been vaccinated!

There is no evidence that any of the new variants are immune to the vaccines. They might be slightly less efficient but that's it. And of course they're not 100% effective. Virtually nothing is ever 100% effective or safe but we accept that risk all the time.

Not all the vulnerable can be vaccinated
Not all the vulnerable are over 16
Some of the vulnerable who have been vaccinated are on medication that means the vaccine might not work very well.

Not saying the new variants now are, but they mutate and other variants will be immune....

@Coldwine75

Not saying the new variants now are, but they mutate and other variants will be immune....

You say that like it's a certainty - it's really not.

Its a very high chance,???

@Coldwine75

Its a very high chance,???

Why do you think that? I'm honestly interested. Other vaccine programmes have been hugely successful and managed to almost eradicate some diseases that were previously pretty devastating. I know the coranavirus in itself is a bit different but I don't know of any examples where a disease has managed to totally mutate so that a vaccine is rendered useless.

I’m worried that all the younger people will mix over the next few months, increase community transmission and then the vaccines that we’ve had won’t be effective against another new variant. So back to square one. Hope not though.

@camelfinger

I’m worried that all the younger people will mix over the next few months, increase community transmission and then the vaccines that we’ve had won’t be effective against another new variant. So back to square one. Hope not though.

This is why people like me kept calling for border restrictions and real quarantine until we had the majority of the population fully vaccinated.