Schools as vectors for transmission

[Escapetothecounty]

Just before the schools reopened I remember there were many many threads by concerned parents/teachers about the impact of reopening on case numbers and further community transmission.

After 5+(?) weeks of schools being open and no increase in case numbers even with increased testing, does this suggest that schools in face are not vectors for transmission? I'm struggling to understand why case numbers increased after the September reopening and not this time? Was it the indoor mixing in the autumn that compounded it?

Schools are just a reflection of the community spread of the virus, so if it's low in the community it will be low in schools. Doesn't mean schools aren't helping it to get passed around, but if there's not much virus there's not much opportunity for it to spread.

Case numbers are increasing in some areas

I think the case numbers in secondary age pupils did increase but perhaps this was more to do with asymptomatic cases being picked up. Also perhaps the impact of this increase is not so great due to vaccination. We are also having warmer weather which may impact on cases,

Also we’ve had school holidays for 2 of those weeks.

Community transmission was low in August though and cases rose quickly in September, which doesn't seem to have happened this time around.

After 5+(?) weeks of schools being open

They were open for 3 weeks with everything else shut, then they shut completely for 2 weeks.

They have now been open for 2 weeks, with some other things starting to open. We also have masks and LFTs where before we had no mitigation measures.

The situation is currently very different to September. We know schools were vectors for transmission between Sept and Dec. What remains to be seen is if enough has changed between then and now for it not to become an issue again. Obviously vaccinations are a huge potential game changer. Fingers crossed.

Numbers are rising in my area, we were hugely below national average (about half) and are now above and rising. Thankfully hospital numbers and deaths are low thanks to approx 50% of local population being vaccinated.

In September in was as much as possible Open. As. Normal. No masks in class or corridors, no testing, and starting back after the relaxation of restrictions (and EOTHO)
This time it is from lockdown so not comparable.

The virus has to get into school first. If there is not much in the community then it won’t spread via the school

The virus has to get into school first. If there is not much in the community then it won’t spread via the school

This. And the fairly major difference that pupils in secondary schools have had to wear masks in class this time around and do twice weekly lateral flow tests. It's funny how people seem to forget these important changes.

A lot of the September increase was seeded by young people brining it back from party type holiday destinations. They were often asymptomatic but it spread from there. A bit like the 1800 cases brought in in February from Europe. Doesn't take much for it to take off in those situations, particularly without vaccination.

Masks

Good points about masks for secondary. I don't have school age children so no first hand experience of the differences in school between September and March (and hence the question about how long they've been open for).

It'll be interesting if the LFTs are shown to stop covid from entering schools as well.

I just have a glance at the daily dashboard most days and was encouraged by the case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths continuing to fall since this reopening.

Are the previously concerned teachers feeling any better about their working conditions?

Figures in our area have not been positive in post primary and we are in a part of the UK where schools only reopened after Easter so only a couple of weeks so far and already there has been increases and cases in most secondary schools in the last 7 days.

However as far as I'm aware we don't have lateral flow testing in secondary for all age groups only for the older year 12 and above in N.Ireland, I could be wrong about this but I'm pretty sure that is correct, and maybe that would show if there hasn't been cases in other areas of the UK that regular LFT is helping keep cases out of schools.

Well, 2 weeks of Easter Holidays helped to break the transmission rates, they've picked up since.

4 weeks until Exeat (so fingers crossed)
But so much is different than Sept- both good & bad, it's hard to know, but having indoor mixing and fewer restrictions this next few weeks could make a big difference.

The school has sent a letter out about the risk of parties (alcohol, sex and Covid)

I still can't get 2m between me and my front row, but at least they're all wearing masks now.
There still remains something deeply odd about not being able to sit with my colleagues round a table on the train, but being in a classroom with up to 32 teens.

I assume the twice a week tlf have helped. My school haven't had any cases so far since returning.

I did worry that as most adults hadn't been vaccinated when students returned that the numbers would increase, but hopefully soon we all will be vaccinated so less likely of parents /kids being affected.

Universities, not schools led to an increase.

Young adults moving from one side of the country to another, mixing with each other and the local community (understandably) is what kick started the last wave.

I feel better about no social distancing and a class of 30 due to my vaccination and the vaccinations of my wonderful team.

I feel the same as a previous poster that school feels like a parallel universe. I go to the shop on the way home and remember I'm supposed to social distance!!

Universities weren't back until after the increase. I don't imagine they helped matters but they didn't cause it in the first place. Cases rose from the beginning of September, universities start mid-end Sept so any increase would have down up early October.

Numbers have stayed low here, Easter break will have helped

I remember ages back someone (expert) talking about whether schools amplified cases

Maybe they just reflect numbers rather than increase

Tbh I don’t know but I was thinking today it feels like a far better position than what some expected before going back

I wondered whether it would be worse but I’m very glad it’s not.

@fudgefox

Case numbers are increasing in some areas

They are increasing in my area, We have had clusters in our school. Strange as the cases are low but we had a letter of reassurance because I think lots of kids have had to isolate recently.

Tbh, I think the numbers will grow in schools as there isn't really much to stop it. Not everyone will continue doing the lateral flow tests.

Universities, not schools led to an increase.

This is the graph of interest. You can see cases in uni-age kids shoot up as they went back, then they had the mass testing, quarantining and so on and rates dropped quite a lot. Secondary kids on the other hand just kept rising, a brief dip with half term and for lockdown 2. By Christmas with the prospect of those kids going to visit their extended family it was a really worrying time.