Social distancing from friends and family 'COULD end on 17 May'

[wheresmymojo]

The Times is reporting that the impact of the vaccinations is going so well that the Govt COULD end social distancing between friends and family on the 17th May.

I feel like they wouldn't write this unless they felt fairly sure of their sources and it being reasonably concrete but I'm afraid to get my hopes up too much!

That being said for those still following the rules who is first on your hug list?

I know PILs are top of ours as they're just down the road and they've both had their two vaccinations now...am pretty sure we'll all have a sob!

I feel like they wouldn't write this unless they felt fairly sure of their sources and it being reasonably concrete but I'm afraid to get my hopes up too much!

@wheresmymojo you need to be aware that there are competing views in government, one of which is anti-lockdown. This faction have been agitating for an end to restrictions as they didn’t want a lockdown in the first place. When that failed, they have softened to ‘we need a speeding up of lifting of restrictions because the vaccination programme is going so well’.

This faction of government have the ear of the right wing press who are also anti-lockdown (particularly the Telegraph) so will feature stories like this prominently on their front pages - referencing ‘scientists’ who are notably not Whitty or SAGE.

The Sunday Times has also been used by the government to pre-leak potential policy to see how it flies with the public. Sometimes these things go onto happen, sometimes they don’t.

At the moment it is hard to tell whether a story is a leak, or a means to put pressure on the government to implement favoured courses of action.

Either way, I’d wait for an official govt announcement.

As part of Step 3, no earlier than 17 May, the government will look to continue easing limits on seeing friends and family wherever possible, allowing people to decide on the appropriate level of risk for their circumstances.

Allowing people to decide the level of risk? Thank you, but I’ve never needed permission from the government to use my brain and come up with this decision myself.

What still baffles me is people who are fully vaccinated and still don’t want to get close to other fully vaccinated people. ‘The rules don’t allow it yet, it’s not safe’. Yes it is safe, and may I ask what changes on the 17th of May suddenly? Honestly, people have lost all perspective.

@noblegiraffe

palace yes, LFTs and masks are now in secondary schools because we don’t have any other mitigation measures, particularly social distancing, and that was a disaster. It created a pool of covid infection that leaked out into the community.

LFTs aren’t good enough at finding positive cases to say that we don’t need to wear a mask when in classrooms not social distancing.

Like I said, it's all open to interpretation. 5 cases in our secondary from sept -now. Hardly disastrous.

@motherrunner - everyone I know still is

it's all open to interpretation

National policy wasn’t based on your school, it was based on national data, which for secondary schools was awful. Basing policy on the luckiest schools would be a mistake.

I haven't hugged my teacher son since last year .
What still baffles me is people who are fully vaccinated and still don’t want to get close to other fully vaccinated people
I would get close to fully vaccinated people but not to the unvaccinated, especially those who work with or have children.
I am fully vaxed but immunocompromised.

The nearest we have come to bending the rules is for him to sit inside the door of our conservatory with all doors and windows open. He will be in the last cohort to get his vaccine so hugs in July hopefully.

@YonWeeLassie

I haven't hugged my teacher son since last year . What still baffles me is people who are fully vaccinated and still don’t want to get close to other fully vaccinated people I would get close to fully vaccinated people but not to the unvaccinated, especially those who work with or have children. I am fully vaxed but immunocompromised.

The nearest we have come to bending the rules is for him to sit inside the door of our conservatory with all doors and windows open. He will be in the last cohort to get his vaccine so hugs in July hopefully.

So will you never hug your child again, if Covid doesn’t disappear and becomes endemic? Do you also not hug during flu season? I’m just trying to understand why you wouldn’t - do you not trust the vaccine has given you full protection against serious illness and death?

How old is your son? Just hug your son! I have 200+ contacts a day excluding staff. My DC are in 4 different bubbles - class bubbles and wraparound bubbles. They‘re now attending swimming/dance/football/guides face to face extra to that.

If you want to hug your son, do it!

@noblegiraffe

it's all open to interpretation

National policy wasn’t based on your school, it was based on national data, which for secondary schools was awful. Basing policy on the luckiest schools would be a mistake.

Funny how the worse case numbers happened in January 21....after schools had been closed since 18th December!

Primaries opened for a day in Jan, but infection rates for secondary school kids plummeted once they shut in December (peaking at Christmas). Massive impact.

@noblegiraffe

Primaries opened for a day in Jan, but infection rates for secondary school kids plummeted once they shut in December (peaking at Christmas). Massive impact.

13th Dec 2.2% 20th Jan 1.6%. hardly plummeted. Plus the rise over Christmas was far more likely from family gatherings.

No, Palace, infections in secondary kids peaked on Christmas Day and then fell and continued to fall. The peak on Christmas Day represents transmission when they were most likely still in school. Christmas gatherings did not cause infection rates to rise in secondary kids, being out of school, being out of that massive source of infections had more of an impact. The graph is clear.

As I said, its hardly plummeted though is it.

It was 3.8% on Christmas Day in secondary kids at the peak and was 0.3% when schools reopened on 8th March. So yes, it has plummeted.

It was 2.2% on 13th Dec (note youre ignoring that). You didnt show what the rate was on 8th March on that graph. I feel youre cherry picking figures to prove a point. Will kids in school catch covid - of course. Will kids going to school mean more cases (whne community transmission is high) of course. But the rates are representative of whats happening in the community. Vaccines are nearly sorted - vulnerable protected.

It was 2.2% on 13th Dec (note youre ignoring that). You didnt show what the rate was on 8th March on that graph.

They're not my graphs, I don't control the x axis.

No idea why you have picked out 2.2% on 13th December. What's that supposed to show? That rates increased between then and Christmas Day? We know they did. That last week of term was pretty awful for spreading the Kent variant.

But the rates are representative of whats happening in the community

And to address this point, they certainly weren't representative of the community in secondary schools. They were much higher than the national rates for other age groups.

This isn't cherry picking, you can look at the spreadsheets of data on the ONS site yourself.

It's my Grandad's funeral on May 18th. I hope to God that I will be able to give my Grandma a hug without anyone raising eyebrows at me.

@noblegiraffe

It was 2.2% on 13th Dec (note youre ignoring that). You didnt show what the rate was on 8th March on that graph.

They're not my graphs, I don't control the x axis.

No idea why you have picked out 2.2% on 13th December. What's that supposed to show? That rates increased between then and Christmas Day? We know they did. That last week of term was pretty awful for spreading the Kent variant.

I "picked it out" like you picked out a different date (hence the cherry picking). I'm not sure what you're trying to show me. I know cases went up when kids returned to school (why wouldn't they?) But it didn't escalate in every area. Schools never closed (as we are regularly told). Cases go up far more in households than anywhere else. If you're trying to show me that kids in school increase cases then isn't there all the more reason for teachers to be abiding by the guidelines and not hugging their friends? I'd have thought so.

I "picked it out" like you picked out a different date (hence the cherry picking)

You mean when I picked out the date when infection rates were highest in secondary kids (a week after they closed, so representing transmission when they were open, because covid doesn't develop instantly) and then pointed out that rates dropped rapidly and then steadily since then while schools were closed? Only to rise slightly when they reopened in March, to drop again after they closed for Easter?

This isn't cherry picking....I'm not ignoring stuff that doesn't fit the picture here. They didn't rise after Christmas mixing. It's pretty straightforward.

Cases go up far more in households than anywhere else

Do you know who, before Christmas when schools were massive infection ponds, was most likely to be the first case in a household, and more likely to transmit it to family members than other household members....school kids. It's in the SAGE Christmas minutes if you need me to dig it out for you.

isn't there all the more reason for teachers to be abiding by the guidelines and not hugging their friends

I'm not hugging my friends...but what I am doing is challenging your claim that if a teacher is hugging their friend then your kid shouldn't have to wear a mask, and that if your school only had a few cases, masks weren't necessary in the first place.

@babyguffingtonstrikesagain

It's my Grandad's funeral on May 18th. I hope to God that I will be able to give my Grandma a hug without anyone raising eyebrows at me.

Anyone who raises their eyebrows at someone hugging a bereaved grandparent doesn't deserve a second thought.

@noblegiraffe

I "picked it out" like you picked out a different date (hence the cherry picking)

You mean when I picked out the date when infection rates were highest in secondary kids (a week after they closed, so representing transmission when they were open, because covid doesn't develop instantly) and then pointed out that rates dropped rapidly and then steadily since then while schools were closed? Only to rise slightly when they reopened in March, to drop again after they closed for Easter?

This isn't cherry picking....I'm not ignoring stuff that doesn't fit the picture here. They didn't rise after Christmas mixing. It's pretty straightforward.

Cases go up far more in households than anywhere else

Do you know who, before Christmas when schools were massive infection ponds, was most likely to be the first case in a household, and more likely to transmit it to family members than other household members....school kids. It's in the SAGE Christmas minutes if you need me to dig it out for you.

isn't there all the more reason for teachers to be abiding by the guidelines and not hugging their friends

I'm not hugging my friends...but what I am doing is challenging your claim that if a teacher is hugging their friend then your kid shouldn't have to wear a mask, and that if your school only had a few cases, masks weren't necessary in the first place.

My "claim" is that the vulnerable have been vaccinated. (That nothing to do with rates dropping? Noooo just schools being shut (although they were actually still open)). If cases peaked after Christmas it's likely to be Christmas contact that caused it (usual incubation is 5 days). Masks are as much use as saying an open window will help keep teachers safe. It's nonsense. Cases are low. Kids are low risk. Vulnerable are vaccinated, masks off and let teachers hug each other or do a konga if they want to

Yay! Let the government tell you how to conduct the basic of humanity: contact. Not.

If cases peaked after Christmas it's likely to be Christmas contact that caused it

But I've just shown that wasn't the case for secondary kids.

Masks are as much use as saying an open window will help keep teachers safe.

Ventilation is even more important than masks...

@noblegiraffe

If cases peaked after Christmas it's likely to be Christmas contact that caused it

But I've just shown that wasn't the case for secondary kids.

Masks are as much use as saying an open window will help keep teachers safe.

Ventilation is even more important than masks...

But if secondary cases peaked before the second wave why wasnt that wave earlier? Doesnt that show than in spite of cases peaking in December (if schools were closed from 18th onwards) the second wave (of positive tests) wasnt until far later in January and therefore must have been community based, not school?