India thought they had herd immunity

[hedgehogger1]

Fascinating and very sad article about how they basically messed things up by going back to normal too quickly www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/29/we-are-not-special-how-triumphalism-led-india-to-covid-19-disaster?fbclid=IwAR0Y1Be2FaBL3n3CWFgjXsTXPHSbwapj-B7aEuLM4dwiirtPajh2g4s7t3I

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

They’ll just use it as a means to say, “see! India got it wrong! They opened up too soon! And look what’s happening! We’re going to end up just like them if we listen to stupid Boris and let the UK’s restrictions loosen! Why won’t somebody see sense!”

And forget all about India afterwards.

How did they think they had herd immunity with no vaccines and a relatively small number of deaths? (Until this wave)

It is tragic watching it all unfold

@RedcurrantPuff

How did they think they had herd immunity with no vaccines and a relatively small number of deaths? (Until this wave)

Err - many in the UK believed EXACTLY this late 2020. Do you not remember Dr Sunetra Gupta's comments - she was always being quoted by the BBC. Also Carl Heneghan who tried to explain away the rise in cases last autumn as faulty PCR results - he was another favourite of the BBC.

Then there was the BIG story - the study (which wasn't a study at all, but a model with demonstrary parameters entered) that most of the RW press were using to argue that most people had had covid-19, the death rate was minute and we wouldn't have a second wave. The one that was puzzling because the press release came from a PR company with ties to Cummings rather than the research team involved....

Thankfully the UK government ignored all of this, but there's many people who totally believed it.

ComtesseDeSpair is right.

When you read things like that, you need to read critically. The political situation in India is there for all to see, and the Covid situation has been driven by Modi, not pure science.

This Boris inspired 'British First and Best' thing is unedifying.

Completely agree ComtesseDeSpair and very well said.

As soon as this is over people will stop hand wringing over India and, as you point out, the fact that millions of people exist in utter poverty will be forgotten.

@ComtesseDeSpair

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

They’ll just use it as a means to say, “see! India got it wrong! They opened up too soon! And look what’s happening! We’re going to end up just like them if we listen to stupid Boris and let the UK’s restrictions loosen! Why won’t somebody see sense!”

And forget all about India afterwards.

This this this!

India doesn't care about it's people, the population numbers are ridiculous, the poverty is appalling but as long as the politicians and the rich keep getting richer then nobody cares.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

Completely agree ComtesseDeSpair and very well said.

As soon as this is over people will stop hand wringing over India and, as you point out, the fact that millions of people exist in utter poverty will be forgotten.

Indeed. As an example India has around 2m cases and 220k deaths from TB every year which barely gets a mention.

In fact, the covid situation in India is only being seen as an issue now as its no longer the poor that are being affected by the lack of medical care.

@ComtesseDeSpair

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

They’ll just use it as a means to say, “see! India got it wrong! They opened up too soon! And look what’s happening! We’re going to end up just like them if we listen to stupid Boris and let the UK’s restrictions loosen! Why won’t somebody see sense!”

And forget all about India afterwards.

100% this.

Bookworm

The U.K. government did not ignore the herd immunity talk in Autumn at all. Rishi invited Gupta and others ti a meeting to avoid a circuit breaker. This is on record. They didn’t go for the recommended circuit breaker and had to be forced to do the month lockdown U.K. November. Then they still tried to avoid a third lockdown and tried to allow Christmas until the last minute, let kids back for a day. They were forced into lockdown 2 and 3. Yes they did lockdown and save lives but tens of thousands more lives would have been saved if they’d acted when advised instead of listening to Gupta et al. Lockdowns would have been less severe if done sooner too which would have helped us all.

Separately...
India are where we were in January now. Hopefully we can avoid it happening again. We shouldn’t take it for granted but we can be cautiously optimistic

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

I read your comment thinking this sounds very similar to the U.K. - maybe not quite such extreme differences in wealth, but not completely different to here.

@ComtesseDeSpair

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

They’ll just use it as a means to say, “see! India got it wrong! They opened up too soon! And look what’s happening! We’re going to end up just like them if we listen to stupid Boris and let the UK’s restrictions loosen! Why won’t somebody see sense!”

And forget all about India afterwards.

Absolutely this!

@ComtesseDeSpair

I find this such a distasteful and disingenuous article. It’s ostensibly supposed to be about India and the tragic situation there, but what it actually is, is a piece of propaganda cautioning the UK about the dangers of ending lockdown. People will read it, and they won’t take away from it that India has a desperately underfunded health system, and enormous health inequalities, and that widespread corruption is partially the reason for that; they won’t reflect on the tragedy of India being a country of such enormous wealth extremes that it has a space programme whilst a million children die every year of largely easily preventable causes, or that almost a third of the population exists on less than $2 a day.

They’ll just use it as a means to say, “see! India got it wrong! They opened up too soon! And look what’s happening! We’re going to end up just like them if we listen to stupid Boris and let the UK’s restrictions loosen! Why won’t somebody see sense!”

And forget all about India afterwards.

This all over.

Read Arundhati Roy's piece from yesterday. Extremely informative, and heartbreaking at the same time.
www.theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/28/crime-against-humanity-arundhati-roy-india-covid-catastrophe

I read your comment thinking this sounds very similar to the U.K. - maybe not quite such extreme differences in wealth, but not completely different to here

If you think the UK is remotely similar to India I suggest you visit India.

I read your comment thinking this sounds very similar to the U.K. - maybe not quite such extreme differences in wealth, but not completely different to here

Truly ridiculous comment. Have you been to India?

@RedcurrantPuff

How did they think they had herd immunity with no vaccines and a relatively small number of deaths? (Until this wave)

People in London thought they'd achieved herd immunity last Summer when London covid rates were very low compared to other parts of the country. If Londoners can be so wrong, then so can Indians.

They probably had a temporary degree of herd immunity, enough to slow transmissions down considerably (in conjunction with other measures). This effect was actually noted in several places that had experienced high case rates, including London and NYC. Unfortunately it didn't last, but no one knew what was going to happen at the time. The whole pandemic has been a massive learning curve for everyone.

India was hailed as one of the great success stories in the first wave of the pandemic

That situation clearly did not hold, and it exemplifies the real risks of a new variant

And I think it does tend to show that whilst still in circulation, the only think that stops dreadful peaks is breaking transmission chains (essentially lockdown - as the only way it can be done without mass vaccination is by sharply limiting contact between people). And shows how true it is that we're not safe until we're all safe. Because with a partially vaccinated world population (I mean vaccinated at all, not whether it's full course or single shot) the conditions are ripe for variants which escape the vaccine or natural immunity to be the ones which thrive

I read your comment thinking this sounds very similar to the U.K. - maybe not quite such extreme differences in wealth, but not completely different to here.

Britain has inequality and poverty, we don’t have widespread starvation and extreme poverty. Take infant mortality: The UK has 3.8 infant deaths per 1000 live births. India has over 30.

And I agree with some earlier pps - the situation in India is being used as propaganda/fearmongering in Britain in a really cynical way. Instead of seeing this and thinking “how can we help” we’re being encouraged to make it all about us again.

Well we do have an underfunded healthcare system and big health inequalities in the UK for sure. Maybe not on India’s scale - but nothing to be complacent about that’s for sure. And what has happened in India happened here that’s how we ended up with a massive bloody second wave. And Boris said “let the bodies pile up” .

It didn’t happen here. We had an incredibly difficult situation, but it was not what is happening in India.

@MissyB1

Well we do have an underfunded healthcare system and big health inequalities in the UK for sure. Maybe not on India’s scale - but nothing to be complacent about that’s for sure. And what has happened in India happened here that’s how we ended up with a massive bloody second wave. And Boris said “let the bodies pile up” .

And this is exactly why it’s a disingenuous and distasteful article. It isn’t about India, is it? It isn’t intended to make the reader focus on India. When people talk about the article, it won’t be to talk about India, but to try and bring it back around to the UK. I have no idea how somebody calling themselves a journalist can write an article about the reasons Covid is having the effect it is on India and make it all about how they misjudged herd immunity and shouldn’t have let festivals go ahead. Except the subtext is, of course, because this is the Guardian, that the UK is going to be next because the Tory government is too confident in the vaccine programme and opening the UK up too quickly.

@JeanClaudeVanDammit

I read your comment thinking this sounds very similar to the U.K. - maybe not quite such extreme differences in wealth, but not completely different to here.

Britain has inequality and poverty, we don’t have widespread starvation and extreme poverty. Take infant mortality: The UK has 3.8 infant deaths per 1000 live births. India has over 30.

And I agree with some earlier pps - the situation in India is being used as propaganda/fearmongering in Britain in a really cynical way. Instead of seeing this and thinking “how can we help” we’re being encouraged to make it all about us again.

Succinctly put.