India potential risk to the world

Thewiseoneincognito · 2021-04-27T15:05:32+00:00

I am horrified to see how covid is ravaging India and it’s fragile health system. The poor people of that country are in the grips of a nightmare and all we can do is sit, watch and hope they get through this. I think we should be keeping an eye on the effects this could have on stability in India. My concern is If this topples into mass chaos and a breakdown of their society then we may be witnessing the start of a big headache for the wider global community. So many factors are against them, population density, poor sanitation, poverty, corruption, the list goes on. I hope I am proven wrong but the situation looks to be very grim and seems to be just getting started. The whole world needs to help them NOW!

palacegirl77 · 27/04/2021 16:13

Its terrible, however try and get a bit of perspective - pro rata by population they still arent experiencing the same numbers of cases we were in our peak. Unfortunately they are also suffering from a terrible Gov that let it spread. They are the demographic to become more ill and live in very close quarters. Its awful but its not comparable.

BorisNeedsToResign · 27/04/2021 16:16

yes but if it is the double mutant causing this surge as is feared and we have the double mutant here, we could be in real trouble . They are saying in India that treatments and vaccine are not working against it. It is very worrying.

palacegirl77 · 27/04/2021 16:33

Only 10% of people in India are vaccinated. There is no evidence to suggest the vaccine wont work against it but as is the case here a large percentage needs to be vaccinated. Because there are 90% not vaccinated there is no need for this variant (similar to kent) to mutate further. This variant has been in the UK since February and hasn't taken off, suggesting vaccines are working or other mitigating factors.

Original poster

Thewiseoneincognito · 27/04/2021 17:07

I’m not necessarily referring to the risk of the mutation taking hold here, even though that is in itself a big problem. I’m more concerned about what happens if India starts to fall into chaos and staffing shortages start happening in hospitals, clinics, public services, policing, food supply.

The sole aims of our lockdowns have been to lower the potential burden on the NHS not only to keep health services flowing but also to ensure continuity of vital infrastructure and general functionality of society.

If Covid was left unchecked and allowed to burn its way through the population then we would start to see a disruption to our way of life. This could jeopardise stability inside India, that’s 1.3 billion people living in chaos.

India’s numbers may be proportionately lower than ours but should their health system collapse and the number of sick and infected impacts the day to day functioning of the country we may soon see the true scope of mayhem Covid is capable of.

OP posts:

CarmelBeach · 27/04/2021 17:12

I have an insanely large family dotted across India, plus some friends.

Let's just say I don't look at the family WhatsApp on account of 36 people chatting away!

They aren't worried about the scenario of everyone being so ill that society collapses. Of course there are worries, but societal collapse is not a concern raised by anyone so far.

OverTheRainbow88 · 27/04/2021 17:23

It’s unbelievable. And how have we only just sent some aid?

I say stop vaccinating the under 40s here and send them all to India.

We need to help, and not sit back and watch.

FindingMeno · 27/04/2021 17:25

We really must start thinking globally with this pandemic.

HolmeH · 27/04/2021 17:32

Actually, they do think the vaccine is holding up against the double mutant strain. It’s just India have a population of 1 billion+ & they vaccinate about 10% of those people. So 90% of people aren’t protected. And also, they are now facing a vaccine shortage..

LastChanceToChange · 27/04/2021 17:35

@BorisNeedsToResign

yes but if it is the double mutant causing this surge as is feared and we have the double mutant here, we could be in real trouble . They are saying in India that treatments and vaccine are not working against it. It is very worrying.

Reported. Untrue. Scaremongering.

HSHorror · 27/04/2021 17:41

With such a high population our under 40 jabs are a drop in the ocean.

I actually think it's unlikely they will get hit as badly as we did even without lockdowns.
Younger population. Probably healthier in some ways. And their temperatures will stop it spreading as much as here.

However it's a possibility that uk infected india if so many returning here they must have gone out there. Even vaxxed some would have been infected

VikingVolva · 27/04/2021 17:47

yes but if it is the double mutant causing this surge as is feared and we have the double mutant here, we could be in real trouble . They are saying in India that treatments and vaccine are not working against it. It is very worrying

SKY is reporting it in exactly these terms

Tal45 · 27/04/2021 17:52

India really need to get their population under control. What is happening there is terrible but obviously going to happen in any pandemic - and governments around the world have been predicting it was only a matter of time (although expecting flu rather than corona). The difference between poor and rich is also huge and lockdowns literally mean people will starve to death. I hope this has been a wake up call but I doubt it because all the rich ever care about are themselves.

Original poster

Thewiseoneincognito · 27/04/2021 18:03

@LastChanceToChange on what grounds do you feel what @BorisNeedsToResign said is untrue? Most of the news outlets have mentioned concern around the potential issues India’s strain could bring should it take root here. It’s not scaremongering it’s discussion.

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LastChanceToChange · 27/04/2021 18:15

Please show me your evidence that vaccines are not working in India. Please show me your evidence that treatments are not working in India. Please show me your evidence that vaccinated people in the UK are getting a "mutant" covid infection.

katkit · 27/04/2021 21:54

The recent images from India are just a snapshot; the entire county is not overwhelmed with covid. It’s shocking, but it is quite a chaotic country during normal times; it’s not about to collapse from this.

Kokeshi123 · 28/04/2021 00:07

It’s shocking, but it is quite a chaotic country during normal times; it’s not about to collapse from this.

This. "Health care system collapsing" implies that India has a well-functioning healthcare system at the best of times--it doesn't!

That said, yes, countries like the UK should be shipping medical supplies and vaccines over there right now. Because it is the decent thing to do, and because India is an important ally for UK and US in the Indo-Pacific region.

paralysedbyinertia · 28/04/2021 00:33

I think perspective is key here. We have friends and family in various parts of India. For many of them, life is carrying on pretty much as normal, perhaps with a few additional restrictions in place. They are shocked by the scenes that they're seeing on their TVs, as we are, but it isn't their current reality. For others, it's a different story. They live in the worse affected areas and they are very scared.

India is a big country. What we're seeing on TV is awful, but it is not necessarily being replicated everywhere. Worrying about societal collapse is premature.

There is, however, a massive humanitarian tragedy unfolding in some areas, and the deaths are almost certainly being under reported. People are suffering and we need to send as much aid as we can, as quickly as we can. Not because the country is going to collapse and the resulting instability is going to affect us all, but because each and every person dying will be someone's loved one. It's the only right thing to do.

FWIW, it seems that a lot of India's problems are currently being caused by the Kent variant, and not necessarily the Indian one. Certainly, that seems to be the case in northern India, including Delhi. The Indian variant seems to be concentrated around Maharashtra.

It has actually been reported that the treatments and vaccines don't seem to be working. Sky news reported it the other day; they were echoing what had been said by one of the doctors who they had interviewed. However, I have seen other doctors urging people to get vaccinated because the vaccines are working, so it seems that there are some differences of opinion on the ground. Only a tiny proportion of the population has been vaccinated in any case, but early studies suggest that both of the vaccines in use in India (AZ and covaxin) are effective against the new variants, at least to a certain degree.

RedcurrantPuff · 28/04/2021 00:51

Why would it be any worse than the countless other disasters that have faced countless other countries over many years?

RedcurrantPuff · 28/04/2021 00:53

Not meaning that we shouldn’t help because I believe we should but civil unrest and a breakdown of law and order is hardly new.

India is going through a terrible time but it’ll be something or someone else in the news next week.

RedcurrantPuff · 28/04/2021 00:56

@OverTheRainbow88

It’s unbelievable. And how have we only just sent some aid?

I say stop vaccinating the under 40s here and send them all to India.

We need to help, and not sit back and watch.

There is no point in that. The numbers are a drop in the ocean. We’d just make things worse for us but not help India.

UserEleventyNine · 28/04/2021 17:15

And how have we only just sent some aid?

Because it takes time?

*Establish what is needed, and where
*Find out if we have it
*Make sure what we have will work with their systems
*Make sure there are people on the spot who know how to use it
*If not, find people we can send to train people there
*Gather together supplies from where they are stored
*Source an aeroplane and crew
*Transport supplies to airport
*Load aeroplane
*Complete airport formalities
*Take off

And at the other end, plans will need to have been made to unload and transport the cargo.

IcedPurple · 28/04/2021 17:16

@BorisNeedsToResign

yes but if it is the double mutant causing this surge as is feared and we have the double mutant here, we could be in real trouble . They are saying in India that treatments and vaccine are not working against it. It is very worrying.

Are they saying that in India? Most expert opinion I've read suggsts that the 'double mutant' does not appear to be a cause for great alarm.

IcedPurple · 28/04/2021 17:19

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]**@LastChanceToChange* on what grounds do you feel what @BorisNeedsToResign* said is untrue? Most of the news outlets have mentioned concern around the potential issues India’s strain could bring should it take root here. It’s not scaremongering it’s discussion.[/quote]
"News outlets" are a terrible source for scientific information. They love to sensationalise. Most virologists believe that the 'Indian strain' is not likely to evade vaccines. It's not even officially a 'variant of concern'.

bookworm1632 · 28/04/2021 17:22

Most virologists believe that the 'Indian strain' is not likely to evade vaccines. It's not even officially a 'variant of concern'.

This is not true. The expectation is that it will have similar vaccine evasion to the SA and Brazilian strains, and it is now a variant of concern - that's why they're surge testing for it!!

All that said, vaccine evasion does NOT mean the vaccines are now completely ineffective. It means they have LESS efficacy which can manifest in many different ways. The likelihood is that most people will still be protected against severe illness.

UserEleventyNine · 28/04/2021 17:27

BBC five days ago:

However, there is not yet enough data to say the Indian variant is of a "variant of concern" - a term used to describe the UK, Brazilian and South African variants. BBC

Is there something more up to date?