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Original poster

University admissions this year

50 replies

Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 10:47

Posted here for traffic but wondered what people thought would happen with admissions this year and teacher assessment. Seems to be huge variation in how schools are doing this so will they let everyone in who has a firm offer even if the drop a grade or two? Will they stand firm if people don’t meet their offers? Anyone any insight?

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nex18 · 18/04/2021 11:03

No insight but my dd is Y13 and we’re similarly confused. She’s working hard at revising and has had loads of exams since going back to school in March and has loads more planned for the next 4 weeks. She says she’s doing more exams than if she was doing exams! I can’t really see how they can get far different from their predicted grades. I find it very unsettling as a parent to know nothing about what is happening.

SeasonFinale · 18/04/2021 11:17

In a normal year only about 17% UCAS predicted grades are correct when actual results come out. If as you say they won't get far from predicted grades it would seem unlikely that the more competitive unis would let people in with dropped grades. However recruiting unis that need bums on seats will - the same as other years.

HipTightOnions · 18/04/2021 11:26

I can’t really see how they can get far different from their predicted grades

We will not be considering their predicted grades at all.

nex18 · 18/04/2021 11:28

I know nothing, I just can’t see how a teacher predicted grade at the time of applying can change too much to the teacher predicted grade in the summer.

Firefliess · 18/04/2021 11:37

I think it's likely that significantly more students than usual will meet their offers this year, because teachers will grade higher on average than students would have achieved have done in actual exams, and with a closer match to predicted grades (ie very few students will be a lot higher or a lot lower than predicted).

So the top ranking universities will be unlikely to admit many who've missed a grade because they won't have space. At lower ranking universities, it's more complex, because more applications will have made their offers, but there may also be fewer than usual second choice applicants (because more of them made it into their first choice uni instead) So the lower ranking universities may be as likely as ever to admit near misses if they want them, and some right at the bottom of the heap may be struggling to fill their courses.

Firefliess · 18/04/2021 11:43

It's not so much that teachers will automatically award the grades predicted last summer, but that allowing schools to dictate grades will remove some of the unpredictable nature of exams. Students who crash in an exam will not do as badly this year, as teachers will push their grade up to reflect their work throughout the year. In a normal year these students would be the ones missing their offers. Similarly, students who cram and exceed expectations, or just get lucky with the questions that come up in an exam, may have their grade pushed down. So everyone ends up with grades more closely aligned with predicted grades than usual.

Original poster
Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 12:07

I think the situation is actually worse than if they had let exams go ahead. So if universities assume grades are a bit inflated and therefore stick to original offers - it doesn’t take account of the wide variation of the way schools are assessing (some really strict with lots of exams at the moment and others I’ve heard of which have just said they are awarding predicted grades and that’s it) and also that some students are being assessed on material which might have been poorly taught in lockdown.
It is very worrying and hard to firm choices on UCAS without knowing how it is all going to play out.

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poppycat10 · 18/04/2021 16:31

I agree, I have a ds in Y13 and it's difficult for him to know what to do. He is going to leave it until the very last minute so he has some idea how he's done in his assessments and can make some level of informed choice. He did ok in the ones he did before Easter so hopefully that will continue.

He's chosen his insurance offer; it's a toss up between two unis for his firm (offering AAB and ABB so much will depend on what happens in the next few weeks).

jgw1 · 18/04/2021 16:42

@Teenageromance

Posted here for traffic but wondered what people thought would happen with admissions this year and teacher assessment. Seems to be huge variation in how schools are doing this so will they let everyone in who has a firm offer even if the drop a grade or two? Will they stand firm if people don’t meet their offers? Anyone any insight?
University admissions teams are very well aware of the challenges presented by this year's teacher assessments and have taken a number of steps to mitigate the grade inflation that will occur. For example at a typical Russell group university for a non-regulated course they would need to make 5x as many offers as they have places, this year they have made fewer offers, perhaps 3x as many as there are places. The level of caution some universities have shown in making offers means that they expect to have more places in clearing this year for more courses than in previous years. On the other hand some universities continued as though nothing was different (I would avoid universities who made offers during the autumn) and will just happily accept as many students as they can have for the money and never mind the quality of the course and experience.
Original poster
Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 17:17

@jgw1 that’s really helpful. So sounds like it would be worth aiming high in terms of choices in that even if students dropped a grade there are less people holding places so may be more chance of getting in? Have I got that right - thinking of Russell group.

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jgw1 · 18/04/2021 17:23

[quote Teenageromance]@jgw1 that’s really helpful. So sounds like it would be worth aiming high in terms of choices in that even if students dropped a grade there are less people holding places so may be more chance of getting in? Have I got that right - thinking of Russell group.[/quote]
But those people who are holding places are much more likely to get the grades this year in previous years.
Where there may be places in clearing is where by chance a particular course at a particular university has not been chosen by as many offer holders as their firm (or insurance choice) as the university want to have. Universities will know this on about 10th June and will make plans accordingly.

Original poster
Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 18:38

Ok so my point is that for some schools the students might not get the predicted grades because of poor teaching in lockdown and are being assessed to the nth degree now and unfairly tested on material that hasn’t been taught properly. While some schools are not assessing at all and are just awarding the predicted grades. So the system will still be very heavily biased. Whereas if they had gone along with exams they would have had longer revision time and a fairer playing field.

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Original poster
Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 18:39

Year 13s are having a horrible time

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SeasonFinale · 18/04/2021 19:59

There are no schools whoch are not assessing at all. The JCQ governed boards require 5 pieces of evidence of working at that grade and it needs to be the same evidence for the class or cohort unless s There is a good explainable evidence sign it is not.

CAIE require 3 pieces one of which is a full past paper of the equivalent of a full paper.

All boards require all exaninable learning objectives to have been covered. There is so much misinformation out there and o this thread. Your schools will have this on hand and will have provided protocols to the exam board for approval.

Inanun2 · 18/04/2021 20:15

@SeasonFinale

There are no schools whoch are not assessing at all. The JCQ governed boards require 5 pieces of evidence of working at that grade and it needs to be the same evidence for the class or cohort unless s There is a good explainable evidence sign it is not.

CAIE require 3 pieces one of which is a full past paper of the equivalent of a full paper.

All boards require all exaninable learning objectives to have been covered. There is so much misinformation out there and o this thread. Your schools will have this on hand and will have provided protocols to the exam board for approval.

Which Is why I think this years are disadvantaged. You just have to read forums to see how some schools are being more rigorous than others with testing, some schools have done loads - ours were tested 2nd week back in Sept, so you would expect improvement from then (having had hardly any schooling for the previous 6 months before Sept) to now or if that had been sitting in June. It feels very unfair, and my fear is some schools will play by the rules properly and others will not.
Original poster
Teenageromance · 18/04/2021 20:23

CAIE require 3 pieces one of which is a full past paper of the equivalent of a full paper.

Is that under exam conditions? If so what on earth is the point of that. They are expecting students to complete a past paper without the normal 4 weeks + of revision. What a mess this whole thing is

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jgw1 · 18/04/2021 20:48

@SeasonFinale

There are no schools whoch are not assessing at all. The JCQ governed boards require 5 pieces of evidence of working at that grade and it needs to be the same evidence for the class or cohort unless s There is a good explainable evidence sign it is not.

CAIE require 3 pieces one of which is a full past paper of the equivalent of a full paper.

All boards require all exaninable learning objectives to have been covered. There is so much misinformation out there and o this thread. Your schools will have this on hand and will have provided protocols to the exam board for approval.

You are correct that there is much misinformation about.

Could you point to where in the JCQ guidance on the determination of grades it says anything about 5 pieces of evidence?
(hint the word five does not appear at any point in the document).

jgw1 · 18/04/2021 20:50

@Teenageromance

CAIE require 3 pieces one of which is a full past paper of the equivalent of a full paper.

Is that under exam conditions? If so what on earth is the point of that. They are expecting students to complete a past paper without the normal 4 weeks + of revision. What a mess this whole thing is

CAIE do not require it to be done in exam conditions, it could simply be a collection of past paper questions the students did in class (or at home if the teacher is reasonable confident that it is the students own work).
nex18 · 18/04/2021 23:56

Whatever information or misinformation my dd’s school have, they have not shared it with parents so I’m working on guessing.

Firefliess · 19/04/2021 07:46

If you want to know what the schools have been told about assessing grades, this article summarises it all and also links to the JCQ guidance www.tes.com/news/gcse-and-level-2021-teacher-grades-assessment-guidance-so-far

Might be helpful for those whose schools are keeping them in the dark. Nobody should simply be using predicted grades. That's quite clear.

Original poster
Teenageromance · 19/04/2021 10:33

Thanks @Firefliess - none of this has been shared from our school. So looks like we can ask what materials are being used for giving grades.

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poppycat10 · 19/04/2021 10:36

I would avoid universities who made offers during the autumn 4 of DS's offers came before Christmas :(

poppycat10 · 19/04/2021 10:37

But those people who are holding places are much more likely to get the grades this year in previous years

Are they? Why? That assumes schools are just going to give high grades away. I don't see any evidence of ds' college doing that.

jgw1 · 19/04/2021 14:00

@poppycat10

But those people who are holding places are much more likely to get the grades this year in previous years

Are they? Why? That assumes schools are just going to give high grades away. I don't see any evidence of ds' college doing that.

Schools that matched their CAGs last year to previous years cohorts ended up with students getting less good grades than those that gave students the grade that they were most likely to achieve. The two are very much not the same thing. If I have a class of 10 students, each of them might be most likely to get a grade 9, but on any given day in an exam 4 of them will get an 8 and 1 a 7.
This year as long as I have the evidence of them working at a grade 9 then they will all get 9s. Universities are well aware of this, which is why they are making fewer offers.
Original poster
Teenageromance · 19/04/2021 14:01

^^
That’s the problem - some will be just giving the grades and others (like my children’s school) are testing them on poorly taught content taught during lockdown. So there is a high chance they won’t get their predicted grades based on these assessments. Which makes firming university offers very difficult. The school (because of all the various closures) has very little evidence previously.

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