‘We don’t need AZ for younger people when we have other vaccines coming’

[Circumlocutious]

I’m hearing this a lot about the AZ jab: why take the risk of giving it to a younger population (even if it’s a 1 in 100,000 risk of CVST, when there are other vaccines on the horizon that are even less risky. We have Jansen / Novavax / Moderna on the way so we can just wait a little longer. How lovely.

But ending the pandemic isn’t just about sorting out your own country. What about developing countries who don’t have the luxury of choice between expensive vaccines or mRNA vaccines with difficult storage requirements? What are they supposed to do? What do we want them to do? Suck it up?

I’m from a Middle Eastern country where this is now huge doubt over AZ. This from a place with a semi-nonexistent /crumbling healthcare system.. It’s absurd. And the narrative is ‘why should we take this vaccine when Europe is turning up its nose at it’?

For all the attempts to figure out how risky AZ really is and reassure our developed nations in the process, it’s like we don’t realise this debate is being witnessed on a global scale. And it will have consequences. Very sad.

As far as I can tell the risk of clots from getting covid is far far higher than the risk from the vaccine. If I lived in NZ or somewhere else with almost no cases I might look into it in more detail but in the U.K. or any other country where covid is rife the AZ vaccine has to be worth it. Every day you’re not vaccinated is a clotting risk when there are cases in the community.

I'm in the so called (i.e. unproven) at risk group and I'd take the AZ vaccine as surely my risk of clots with covid would be higher.

There is no evidence to suggest the two are connected
But if it was : Its about a 0.3% risk.
You do get that right?

@YellowPurple

There is no evidence to suggest the two are connected But if it was : Its about a 0.3% risk. You do get that right?

A risk of what, and based on which data?

The thing that particularly gets me with this is that there's certainly not enough evidence that moderns/novavax/anything else is any better or worse than AZ. If it's even linked at all it's extremely rare: rare enough that no one will have found out in the trials of any other vaccines whether or not it's happening at a similar rate. Even if it is linked it would still be vastly less risky than Covid-19 even for young people at the rates it has occurred at.

@Gladioli23

The thing that particularly gets me with this is that there's certainly not enough evidence that moderns/novavax/anything else is any better or worse than AZ. If it's even linked at all it's extremely rare: rare enough that no one will have found out in the trials of any other vaccines whether or not it's happening at a similar rate. Even if it is linked it would still be vastly less risky than Covid-19 even for young people at the rates it has occurred at.

Certainly not a 0.3% risk (aka 1 in 300 people), as one above poster said...

People are very poor at calculating risk in general and any side effect on this scale is considered minimal.

I get that western nations want to cut risks from 1 in 100,000 to say, 1 in a million, in order to reassure their populations...but this positioning will come at a global cost.

I think the Janssen jab will be the one for the poorer countries. One and done. Good storage conditions. Any vaccine requiring 2 shots is a logistical nightmare for developing countries.

@YellowPurple

There is no evidence to suggest the two are connected But if it was : Its about a 0.3% risk. You do get that right?

There have been over 18 million doses of AZ vaccine given in the UK. There have been 30 reports of clots and 7 clot-related deaths in AZ vaccinated people.

That does not represent a 3 in 100 risk. It represents 1 in 600,000 (or smaller as the doses number more than 18 million) for clots and lower than 1 in 2.5 million for deaths. And that's assuming that there is a causal link between the vaccine and the clots, which we don't know either way.

I don't think we are very good at rationalising such large numbers. There are 30 cases in 18 million. The risk is tiny, plus the last time they I saw data a on it the number of clots with Pfizer was actually higher, but the EU didn't ban that or create such a fuss.

OP, if you are that concerned with people and what they do fretting about young women not taking a vaccine which may cause side effects, perhaps start with your own area in the middle east that has been the murder capital of earth for decades.

If your concern is for 3rd world countries who may be sceptical of the Oxford vaccine implying we should all " suck it up " to avoid that hesitancy, I suspect the 3 million children who starve to death each year may be a bigger priority of concern

The risks of AZ could vary by country/person though. Depending on if say it were say
Women
Pill
Anaemia
Obesity
Smoking
Etc

@Susan333

OP, if you are that concerned with people and what they do fretting about young women not taking a vaccine which may cause side effects, perhaps start with your own area in the middle east that has been the murder capital of earth for decades.

If your concern is for 3rd world countries who may be sceptical of the Oxford vaccine implying we should all " suck it up " to avoid that hesitancy, I suspect the 3 million children who starve to death each year may be a bigger priority of concern

You know nothing about my circumstances so kindly fuck off.

You don't know the rare risks of those vaccines until they have done millions of people. I was reading a medical paper today about reports of clot issues with the Pfizer and Moderna in America. I think it's probably an issue with vaccinations in general rather than the vaccine used.

Russia and China will get rest of the world sorted out.

AZ is unlikely to be the vaccine of choice in developing countries. That supply was supposed to come from India but between the Indian government halting exports and the U.K. for some reason activating a clause that allows it to import vaccines intended for the poorest countries to use here instead, supply doesn’t look very reliable.

The logistics of Sputnik are the same as AZ and there’s already a number of manufacturers globally who have agreements to be able to produce it as well as shipments being made from Russia.

[quote Susan333]@Circumlocutious I know enough to know the human rights issues prevalent in your area ( the middle east) exceed any perceived wrongdoings you may think exist have over hesitancy in the west to take a vaccine. Sort your own shit out in an area where women are treated worse than dogs including some of the worst breaches of human rights to humanity anywhere in the world before you come moaning on here what the uk is or isnt doing[/quote]
Thanks for your non-existent insights into my 'area', Susan.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

Russia and China will get rest of the world sorted out.

AZ is unlikely to be the vaccine of choice in developing countries. That supply was supposed to come from India but between the Indian government halting exports and the U.K. for some reason activating a clause that allows it to import vaccines intended for the poorest countries to use here instead, supply doesn’t look very reliable.

The logistics of Sputnik are the same as AZ and there’s already a number of manufacturers globally who have agreements to be able to produce it as well as shipments being made from Russia.

I don't know too much about Sputnik, but it certainly seems to be gaining traction in some developing countries. I'm guessing it's that cases that countries that have no 'need' of it, e.g the UK, have no incentive to approve it either?

Possibly. I suspect it’s got a lot to do with Russia & China being astute enough to know how soft power works.

If there is now huge doubt over the Oxford vaccine in developing countries, is this not down to the behaviour of the EU, who first of all didn't want to use it in their elderly populations, and now don't want to use it in younger populations because of the possible link to blood clots? Their behaviour has been awful.

I've seen nothing from any 'official' source in the UK- the government, the NHS, that could undermine confidence in the Oxford vaccine. I think it's understandable if people here, particularly young to middle age women who seem to be the group affected by clots, are questioning the safety of the vaccine for their age group- it's perfectly reasonable for people to want to know what their risks are. The evidence seems to be showing that the vaccine is a tiny risk compared to the virus which is good, hopefully confidence won't be affected but it's wrong to criticise ordinary people for questioning what their individual risks are.

If you want to criticise the UK, please criticise our disgusting government who have cut the ODA budget from 0.7 to 0.5% of GNI and as a result, which will harm developing countries and the worlds most vulnerable people far more than anything anyone on Mumsnet says about the vaccine. But coronavirus is the only thing that anyone seems to be interested in these days unfortunately.

“ Their behaviour has been awful.”

I think this is a bit simplistic. Every single government has tried to do the right thing. Some countries are more risk averse than others. It’s not an anti-British thing, no matter how much some people seem to want to believe that. FWIW I bet a lot of people outside the UK don’t even know or care that the vaccine was developed in cooperation with Oxford University. To them it’s simply the vaccine made by AstraZeneca, one of the international Pharma giants.

Will people stop saying 30 million have been vax and only 30 people have had clots?
The vast majority of those 30 million were NOT women under 50! It’s women under 50 who are at most risk from this type of clot so those figures are meaningless

I don't think it's simplistic to say their behaviour is awful when they have been questioning the safety of the vaccine and damaging confidence in it, all the while making threats about banning exports.

I never said anything about their behaviour being anti-British. If anything they've done far more harm to their own citizens.

Take a look at India which has just begun what I think must be the world's most ambitious vaccine programme: giving AZ to everyone above 45. There is a little doubt about it after the mess in Europe, but not much.

If there is now huge doubt over the Oxford vaccine in developing countries, is this not down to the behaviour of the EU, who first of all didn't want to use it in their elderly populations, and now don't want to use it in younger populations because of the possible link to blood clots? Their behaviour has been awful.

How dare they want to make sure a vaccine is safe, such awful behaviour! Besides it wasn't 'the EU' individual countries decide who gets what vaccine as is their right.