Why do you think the number of new infections has reduced so dramatically ? Lockdown measures or the vaccination or both ?

[frumpety]

Or neither ?

Both. Lockdown got the numbers down and vaccines will keep them down

It is quite strange. Especially considering that this Kent variant is so so contagious.

I’d like to believe it was the vaccine, as lockdown hasn’t been as strict as the last.

I find it so hard to trust figures and this government and can’t shake the feeling that we’re constantly being bullshitted though.

Most likely both, and I'm hoping this is finally the start of some sort of strategy from our government.

Both.

Lockdown started bringing the numbers down ahead of the rate of roll out of the vaccination programme. Vaccination should help keep them low.

Now that there are fewer serious cases, and the NHS gets a chance to recover, plus the hope that vaccination will mean that case numbers stay low, there's a chance that restrictions will largely go.

Potential confounder being a new vaccine-escaping variant

The decline (in deaths & cases) has been much steeper this time (compared to April-May 2020); seems to me like that has to be due to vacc.

It’s both.

I think vaccine.

If you look at the European countries suffering such high numbers now, their deaths are still nothing like what ours were when we had high case numbers in Jan/Feb. Which suggests to me that their slow vaccine roll out had meant they couldn't suppress the 'third wave' but they have vaccinated the most vulnerable so aren't seeing as terrible a death toll. Whereas we have now brought cases and deaths way down but the vaccine rollout cane slightly just too late for us to prevent the awful death rate of January.

Keeping it down will depend on r.
We obviously still have almost all kids unvaxxed so thats at least 0.5. So thats 0.5 for 18-49 yo plus any unvaxxed older.
It may be we get a silent wave as younger wont have symptoms nor vaxxed.
Then all the symptomatic people using lft when it should be pcr
The vaxxed hcp not spreading from hospital to partner office and pt and their kids might make quite a difference

Mainly the vaccine - and it the positive impact will continue to grow exponentially as we reach herd immunity. The greatest benefit will come in the final 5% of vaccinations when we go from 65 to 70% of the population having had two doses. At that point Covid 19 will be as good as gone.

Why 0.5? Where's the evidence for spread among children?

I don't know. I do not read up on these things so I can't make an educated guess. But pandemics eventually burn themselves out, so this will happen at some point.

ONS also reckon that over 50% of the UK population have antibodies for Covid, so we also have herd immunity coming into play
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/about-50-of-people-in-uk-have-antibodies-against-coronavirus

Both. I'm glad to see that it's been more than 2 weeks since the kids went back to school and cases still decreasing. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. Can't shake the feeling that it's too good to be true though!

Both, and the fact that 50% of people have antibodies, and that's not even considering the people who have t cell immunity but aren't currently displaying antibodies, which could be a lot.

You’ve forgotten the third factor - natural immunity

So many people had the Kent strain in Dec / Jan that they’ve developed immunity (especially people that have to go out to work / school kids etc). This, in combination with vaccinations and lockdown is what has brought it down so steeply

Good point about the natural immunity, does anyone know how long that last's for and if everyone develops it ?

Vaccine

There is also much higher rates of testing that this time last year - including asymptomatic - testing which will be reducing transmission if proper isolation is followed.

Hopefully it's a bit of both and the herd immunity thing but this was in the Guardian this morning:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/31/fewer-quarter-covid-symptoms-request-test-uk-study

Agree with the third option, pandemics are in waves and this combined with vaccinations, lockdown and continued social distancing is helping. There will be another wave, it will be then if we see if the vaccinations work enough to stop a lockdown.

Without trying to be less than optimistic the Guardian also have this article:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/almost-third-of-uk-covid-hospital-patients-readmitted-within-four-months

So long term after effects are also a cause for concern.

I think it’s probably both, along with the natural cycle of a pandemic. But I also think testing of asymptomatic people has played a big part, especially where I am. We’re able to have regular lateral flow tests through work. So far there has been 5 people test positive, who didn’t go on to develop a single symptom. Without the testing, they would have had absolutely no reason to isolate, and could have been infecting people who did become very unwell.

I think it’s a combination of factors. The longer gap between doses getting more people vaccinated is a key factor imo ( and Europe should follow us on this) plus testing is great now, easy and quick.
Pandemic’s seem to be 2 parts to me. Pre and post vaccine and countries that do well with both parts have it sorted. We’ve done well part 2.

I suspect people are not testing when they have symptoms

It's both. At the moment 50% of the UK population is estimated to have antibodies, which still leaves a sizeable number of people who can still become infected. Once that % reaches 70-80 then it will be reasonable to assume that vaccination (combined with previous infection) is doing the job of keeping cases very low.