ONS antibody survey shows 50% of people in the community in the UK have antibodies. (46.6% in Scotland - 54.7% in England)

[bumbleymummy]

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/30march2021

"It is important to draw the distinction between testing positive for antibodies and having immunity. Following infection or vaccination, antibody levels can vary and sometimes increase but are still below the level identified as "positive" in our test, and other tests. This does not mean that a person has no protection against coronavirus (COVID-19) since an immune response does not rely on the presence of antibodies alone. We also do not yet know exactly how much antibodies need to rise to give protection. A person's "T cell" response will provide protection but is not detected by blood tests for antibodies."

So even more people could actually be immune.

Good news

Four weeks ago it was 1 in 4 people, two weeks ago it was 1 in 3 people, and today it’s 1 in 2 people. Seems like the vaccination rollout is taking effect.

Yes, it’s a combination of immunity after vaccination and after recovery from infection. Great to see.

Great to see agreed, but given that first vaccinations have increased from 20 million (almost 1 in 3 of the population) to 30 million (almost 1 in 2 of the population) over that 4 week time period it’s likely to account for the bulk of the increase in those testing positive for antibodies.

Well yes, seeing as we’re still in lockdown cases have been pretty low. Now that restrictions are lifting we may see an increase in cases in the groups that haven’t been vaccinated.

It was 1 in 9 people in January, so the increase is clearly down to vaccination.

Why does it matter? There may be more previously infected people with lower antibodies now but good T cell immunity. It’s all taking us in the right direction.

This shows how it changes over time.

Good news - rising
Bad news - not lasting long?

twitter.com/mjb302/status/1376846477029482498

Second doses are on their way.

There was a study recently that showed that immunity did wane sooner in the older population compared to (I think) under 65s. So yes, some groups will probably need a booster sooner than others.

sooner than others is fine, how soon is the real issue

Is going to be like the Forth bridge!!

@bumbleymummy

Why does it matter? There may be more previously infected people with lower antibodies now but good T cell immunity. It’s all taking us in the right direction.

Great if T cell immunity for past Covid infections can be demonstrated, but until T cell immunity is being measured on a population wide basis how do you know?

The ONS data at the moment reflects that the currently measured levels of immunity is significantly impacted by the vaccination programme.

antibody levels can vary and sometimes increase but are still below the level identified as "positive" in our test, and other tests. This does not mean that a person has no protection against coronavirus (COVID-19) since an immune response does not rely on the presence of antibodies alone. We also do not yet know exactly how much antibodies need to rise to give protection. A person's "T cell" response will provide protection but is not detected by blood tests for antibodies.

This is very reassuring. I had no antibodies detected 5 weeks after the vaccine though doctors have assured me I should still have some protection.