I thought we'd had a 3rd wave!?

[ssd]

Johnson saying we must prepare for a third wave from Europe

Are we not in the 3rd wave???

Does he mean we're looking at a 4th wave???

Jesus christ

Third wave has already started

What’s you’re reasoning for this? I’m not saying you’re not right just that the numbers have looked pretty stable to me lately. I follow the official ones and the Zoe symptom ones which are pretty good as an indicator and they’re pretty stable at the moment.

We certainly had a second wave here in autumn, it just didn’t hit London/SE so it doesn’t seem to get counted.

Yes definite 2nd wave here in Liverpool in Oct, the cases went very low in December after all the community testing then 3rd wave when Kent variant hit in Jan. So another wave would be 4th wave. I cant see there being another lockdown though. I imagine most people will either have had it by now or been vaccinated

@Cherryvalentine

Seriously fuck this, thought this would be the last ever lockdown? Have very elderly relatives abroad I'd like to see again. Can't take anymore.

Last ever lockdown? I suppose only time will tell, it depends what happens with the numbers. Should they rapidly accelerate like they did in December then we would have no choice but to lockdown once they became too high.

I know it’s like a broken record but the variants matter in all of this too. If one can evade the vaccines we are essentially back to square one in having to top up everyone’s vax that is once it has been developed and manufactured in enormous quantities. We’ve seen how precarious the supply chain is now with our first doses.

In short, keep an open mind that things can change very quickly, it’s not just here but outside of our borders too that affect the whole equilibrium.

@cryh herd immunity isnt 'unscientific'. And do you honestly believe there will be no more lockdowns once the vaccination roll out is complete? The govt are already prepping us for the next one, just look at the subject of this thread.

Thing is the case numbers isn’t the stat to watch anymore - hospitalisations and deaths are the new yard stick.

Ultimately the vaccine has turned Covid into a cold, it won’t matter how many of us have it if no one is dying of it.

@Thewiseoneincognito

We’re only just finishing our second wave. You think it’s the third because we’ve had 3 lockdowns. Lockdown 2 only postponed this long one so we could do Christmas shopping etc.

Third wave has already started, our numbers are going back up with the schools reopening. I think a summer lockdown is inevitable to coincide with school holidays. Let’s just say the hopium BoJo&Co are peddling with June restrictions lifting is a pipe dream if schools are to start in September.

Why would there be a summer lockdown? Lockdowns exist to reduce pressure on the NHS. By the summer almost everyone will have received at least their first vaccine and the most vulnerable - so, those most likely to need hospital treatment - will be fully vaccinated. Plus it'll be the summer, when respiratory diseases are not as prevalent. Without the pressure on the NHS, there'll be no need for lockdown. And with so many vaccinated, there'll be reduced transmission anyway.

Have a day off from doom mongering, Wisey.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Thing is the case numbers isn’t the stat to watch anymore - hospitalisations and deaths are the new yard stick.

Ultimately the vaccine has turned Covid into a cold, it won’t matter how many of us have it if no one is dying of it.

I agree about the numbers, hospitalisations are key.

I strongly disagree that the vaccine has turned it into a cold. It is far too soon to even be sure vaccines work against it never mind assuming it will become like a cold in the sense we won’t be sick from it. We hope that is the case but we are a very long way off it being the reality, right now it’s still a highly unpredictable virus capable of causing mayhem.

It is far too soon to even be sure vaccines work against it

Now you're just making stuff up.

[quote millenialblush]@cryh herd immunity isnt 'unscientific'. And do you honestly believe there will be no more lockdowns once the vaccination roll out is complete? The govt are already prepping us for the next one, just look at the subject of this thread.[/quote]
nowhere on this thread have I discussed herd immunity or suggested there couldn't be another lockdown

@cryh

I agree, we are on our second wave.

The second lockdown was only half a lockdown, really.

I get really upset thinking what could have been, if only we'd lockdown in September, and not been so reckless last summer.

I wish we had had a non-Tory government, the right-wing of the party is such a bunch of numpties and they are dragging the while country the wrong way.

Here in Wales we have a Labour Government.

At one point, parts of Wales were the worst places in Europe.

Here in Wales we have a Labour Government Yes, I guess so - but I hate the r-w of the Tory party more they are such arses.

@Thewiseoneincognito - this one commented on another thread that she didn’t believe even two doses of the vaccine worked against covid 😂 I mean, who believes science, data & facts right? 😂

There’s been another extremely positive set of results out today. 32,000 people in it. 3 different countries. 100% protection from death & serious illness. Thus the vaccines have indeed made covid a relatively minor illness. Maybe not very nice but some colds make you feel like shite as well.

I really don’t much care about a 3rd wave unless it becomes more deadly. I think we just all need to get out, enjoy summer, enjoy our friends and family and support restaurants, pubs, hairdressers, small business that haven’t been allowed to open. I know last summer wasn’t so shabby and I felt pretty upbeat through September-Nov. Then fell off a cliff again. Like a social re-charge if you will!

@TheVampiresWife

It is far too soon to even be sure vaccines work against it

Now you're just making stuff up.

And said with such authority too 🙄

3rd lockdown, 2nd wave.

We've had our 3rd wave. The B117 wave.

Europe is now getting it. We cannot possibly get another wave based on B117 coming from Europe

All I have to add to this thread is that the user @Thewiseoneincognito is always scaremongering with absolutely fake "facts", always spreading misinformation and feeding into people's anxiety about Covid. I think Mumsnet HQ needs to look into this poster for how much he/she enjoys scaremongering/sharing false news which he/she states like a fact.
ALL her posts reek of false information and seeks to spread distrust in the vaccines. The constant gloom and doom from her is surely taking a toll on lots of posters who are so close to breaking point.

@FaithfullyYours

All I have to add to this thread is that the user *@Thewiseoneincognito* is always scaremongering with absolutely fake "facts", always spreading misinformation and feeding into people's anxiety about Covid. I think Mumsnet HQ needs to look into this poster for how much he/she enjoys scaremongering/sharing false news which he/she states like a fact. ALL her posts reek of false information and seeks to spread distrust in the vaccines. The constant gloom and doom from her is surely taking a toll on lots of posters who are so close to breaking point.

Absolutely agree with this.

In the NW (also Liverpool here) this is our third wave. We got the second down with lots of community testing in October, numbers were starting to fall just before the second lockdown. Possibly NE too. In the SE they had a flicker upwards which was dwarfed in December and January so they would consider this the second wave, and news in the UK is very London-centric.

I know last summer wasn’t so shabby and I felt pretty upbeat through September-Nov. Then fell off a cliff again. Like a social re-charge if you will! I think living in a country with an out of control public health crisis and very high unnecessary deaths is likely to make many people feel miserable.

Wave this wave that , this little made up phrase are starting to put my teeth on edge .
Unsure why it's such a big mystery , a contagious virus quietens down when the hosts are unavailable and ramps up again when restrictions are lifted. Is the answer to lockdown forever then ? A worryingly large number of people are starting to think that way .

I don’t think BJ has a clue about Covid and would not listen to a word he says. He probably has not looked at a graph since aged 16, and then he probably had little interest. £1.00 to a penny he could not put axis labels on a COVID growth curve....

Having said that, he is advised by plenty of experts. They are very keen to keep the epidemic under control and will advise on what might happen.

If the Kent variant had an r of 4-4.5, we would need an awful lot of the population to be vaccinated or immune for other reasons to get to ‘herd’ immunity, so we will undoubtedly have more waves. These, however, are increasingly likely to be small waves and not tsunamis, with hospitals well able to cope.

Personally I think that the experts are being somewhat overly pessimistic this time. Summer will see mainly outdoor contact with no spike and, hopefully, by winter, most of Europe will be vaccinated. Variants which escape the vaccine will happen but my money is on the scientists to outpace the mutations once vaccine factories are fully up and running.

It also appeared to distance seasonally - which is why a bit of economy-saving freedom during the summer makes sense. The warnings that rates during the winter virus season were always there, but you were a doom-monger if you mentioned them.

Whitty, JVT and others have been talking about the possibly need for precautions again in the autumn,.

So don't forget the seasonality, make the most of the summer, support local businesses, see people (outdoors as much as possible) and generally do things that fill the void. So that if restrictions are needed again, it's not been one long drag through, there are breaks

But the European third wave is off-season (ish) as it's emerging in spring. This is concerning.

In a population where about half all adults are vaccinated at all, and bout 2m fully, if the virus starts circulating freely then the conditons are ideal to favour vaccine-escaping variants (more potential hosts)

If a summer European third wave becomes out third wave as well,(which it may well do, as we cannot cut our supply chains and as we are no where near self sufficient in food), then watching for varupiants is incredibly important. And UK is a world leader in that.

I was confused by this too. I thought we were coming towards end of 3rd wave.

i also have this disagreement with dh, some journalists say we have had 3 waves, but some say 2.