So AZ takes 3 weeks to give 70% immunity but for how long please

[SpringisSpinning]

Then let's say it gives 3 months immunity how long does it last after second dose? A second dose in late June.. How long will that last for

I don't think anyone knows yet.

I haven’t read anywhere that the first dose only gives 3 months immunity. Are you sure about that?

The factual answer is ‘no one knows for sure because they haven’t had a cohort to follow and test for long enough’

The real answer is other vaccines for similar families of virus, which make the body respond in similar ways, can give immunity for decades so there is no reason to assume it would be different
But it depends on how many mutations happen year to year

I think immunity is shown to have lasted since as long as the first jabs were given. Given they didn’t exist a few months ago, it’s impossible to say yet, but it hasn’t been found we’ve got to the point where the immunity has been lost.

So, in another year, it might be possible to say the immunity is declining, but it had lasted 15 months. Or that the immunity is still fully present. In 3 years it might be possible to say it is still present after 3 years.

But we can’t give timescales longer than immunity is shown....and that’s limited at the moment by how long it’s been since the first people had the jab.

Apparently it gives rising immunity, 76% after 4 weeks which stays the same... booster 12 weeks after first jab increases it to 84% but no one so far has had severe disease needing hospitalisation after second jab.

There is more data on Pfizer as that was first one rolled out... however real life data shows Pfizer protects against mild disease more than az, but both keep people out of hospital and reduce transmission.

Happy, no not sure, just gleaning little bits of information from all over.

I thought I read you get about 3 months immunity?

My main wonder is how far immunity will carry me into winter, if at all if I had my second jab in June m

Is there no data from the trials yet? It’s almost a year since the human trials began so surely we’d have an idea by now?

@SpringisSpinning Longer than that. Natural infection provides immunity for at least 6-8 months and vaccines generate a more robust response so it’s very likely to be even longer with those.

Wow that is promising! I never heard it was that much.

Data from one of the London studies showed that natural immunity has lasted for at least nine months in some people - these people then had one dose of vaccine and antibody levels were pushed up to levels seen after two doses of vaccine in people who had not had natural infection.

Nobody knows yet but it should be somewhere between several months and several years
I’m involved in one of the vaccine trials and the blood tests will be carrying on for at least a year in total and some people may be asked to carry on.

A bigger concern than the length of immunity is new variants that be able to spread despite a population being vaccinated.

However it’s likely that at least some or the population will have yearly booster jabs which will partly lengthen your general immunity but also give some immunity against new variants

It's a worry that not all of the population can be at the same protection level at the same time. Therefore how can we lift restrictions. There'll always be an unvaccinated/ waning vaccinated group out there.

Nobody knows and it won't be uniform across the population, immunity will be more fragile in the elderly.