Why do so many countries have lighter restrictions

[IrishMamaMia]

This thread and question has come up in many different threads over the past few months. I'd describe myself as well-informed, as in I regularly digest a lot of news from all outlets. I have friends across Europe and US, what I would describe as similarly affected countries? Except from Ireland (I'm Irish and am well aware of how strict the measures are there), why are our measures so long-term and so much worse than elsewhere? Why cant we meet one person indoors outside of bubbling? Why can't I book to go to a Covid secure museum like my friends in Germany? Why can't I access simple grooming at a hairdresser for a month? Why can't my children learn healthy life-saving skills like swimming?Why can't I go into a book shop? America are just getting on with it. I keep seeing media reports that countries are about to be overwhelmed and they never are.
And this week we see subtle hints in the media that relaxation of lockdown might not proceed.
The media seem obsessive about travelling abroad? I couldn't care less I want the freedom to live a bit of a life daily.
Is anyone feeling this? I basically support lockdown in an emergency situation but I can't support this anymore. Was reading Steve Baker's comments on Question Time this morning and think he's right.
I feel like we've gone through the point of no return now and this is getting permanent :(

I think some of the restrictions in the UK and Ireland are harsher because they know people will push the boundaries further than the rules allow. Maybe they have to allow for that?

Could it be in Germany more people will follow the actual rules? Or is that a cliche? Not sure.

Have you read about Paris this week?
Have you looked at free Brazil?

Different climates, population compliance, economies.

Plus we have a considerable senior demographic and as a nation have a higher percentage of higher BMI.

But for the UK, I feel as the vaccines started to look like they were going to be approved and as the UK had invested and pre-ordered all the vaccines, that put the UK into a position that we could look at the ease of restrictions slowly and permanently.

Not long now until you can go to museums and bookshops. Hopefully we can all get back in the pool and have it continuously from when we do.

Various reasons Germanyfor example has managed the whole epidemic far better than the UK - it's a classic tale of a stitch in time saves nine.

For example had the first UK lockdown just lasted 2 weeks longer to give T&T time to actually start working, we might have got on top of the virus back then - eventually just as across Europe, a 2nd wave would have emerged, but it would have been much later and if we'd gone in early with restrictions, it could have been short.

But instead we rushed the ending of restrictions and then were REALLY slow to reimpose them - the result is longer and longer restrictions than anyone.

I think for me at the moment, it's the fact that we can't even do commercial things that could be done safely. Eg outdoor children's sport. Why aren't we ecouraging people to use LFT's to enable these things?
I feel like the debate has to move on from save lives, save out NHS to save the economy, stay safe, save sanity.

@frozendaisy

Have you read about Paris this week? Have you looked at free Brazil?

Different climates, population compliance, economies.

Plus we have a considerable senior demographic and as a nation have a higher percentage of higher BMI.

But for the UK, I feel as the vaccines started to look like they were going to be approved and as the UK had invested and pre-ordered all the vaccines, that put the UK into a position that we could look at the ease of restrictions slowly and permanently.

Not long now until you can go to museums and bookshops. Hopefully we can all get back in the pool and have it continuously from when we do.

Museums is 17th May. Feels like an age.

I’ve wondered this too. All I see on FB is friends and family in the US going out to bars and restaurants and socialising indoors

I'm not following what's happening in Brazil. I like to compare with similar countries. In terms of Paris, they've in a lockdown now, they've had light measures for the 4 months plus(!) we've had ours, in sure they'll do a few weeks and will be fine.
But I hope you're right @frozendaisy but I'm not feeling optimistic. The default here seems to be that we restrict the lives of children and the working age population.

@notrub the divergence on the original lockdowns 12 months (!) ago is a total non-sequitur. The majority of European countries have made similar errors to us to be fair.

Isn't much of Europe having a third wave right now ,and Germany has warned there isn't enough vaccines to avoid a third wave ,I'm not sure anywhere is doing particularly well?

Thinking this can be eradicated is a losing game.

@Doomsdayiscoming isn't it? It's probably not a coincidence that in throwing my toys out of the pram this weekend seeing friends go to museums on social media. Two months to go. If it happens.

@x2boys it's more about what is allowed, safely, rather than comparing waves. The waves come and go but the restrictions seem cultural and permanent.

[quote IrishMamaMia]@notrub the divergence on the original lockdowns 12 months (!) ago is a total non-sequitur. The majority of European countries have made similar errors to us to be fair.[/quote]
I picked Germany, not "the majority of European countries" - I'm not writing a thesis here.

Germany always kept cases at a level that T&T could manage - that's how they kept the death rate down, and how they kept restrictions light.

The UK didn't - our early exit from the first lockdown before T&T was even up and running demonstrates that.

They didn't get the Kent variant at just the wrong time (winter).

@willibald

Thinking this can be eradicated is a losing game.

Rather than state the opposite here, I'm just going to ask why?

@notrub do you have a source for Germany and track and trace? I've read more generally that it hasn't worked well in European countries. Hence why its rising in Germany now.

@notrub just to correct your post. Germany had initial success with contact tracing but also lost control of it in a similar way to here :
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/even-germans-have-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge

[quote IrishMamaMia]@notrub do you have a source for Germany and track and trace? I've read more generally that it hasn't worked well in European countries. Hence why its rising in Germany now.[/quote]
Success during first wave:
www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522

Comments on how Asian nations did it even better:
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03518-4

Germany starts to lose control so responds early
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/even-germans-have-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge

More details on the German response
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Germany#October

Note the circuit break imposed as soon as case numbers got to the point where T&T could no longer contain them.

All along it's been a case in Germany of act early, act efficiently, save lives and lessen overall restrictions.

[quote IrishMamaMia]@notrub just to correct your post. Germany had initial success with contact tracing but also lost control of it in a similar way to here :
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/even-germans-have-lost-control-of-tracing-as-infections-surge[/quote]
haha - we posted the same source.

My OP wasn't trying to claim that Germany did everything with T&T though - it was more about how they got ahead of the virus - as I said - a stitch in time saves nine.

That is funny. It is interesting though @notrub I do wish we had seen the potential of t&t at an earlier stage.
I agree with you on Germany and a stitch in time.

I do also hope that any new measures brought in in Europe are effective. I want to see cases declining all over.

Friend in Finland says the Finns simply follow rules no matter what. So their rules look soft on paper but no one pushes beyond rules so that works for them.

T&T may work very well if prevalence is low.

@IrishMamaMia

I'm not following what's happening in Brazil. I like to compare with similar countries. In terms of Paris, they've in a lockdown now, they've had light measures for the 4 months plus(!) we've had ours, in sure they'll do a few weeks and will be fine. But I hope you're right *@frozendaisy* but I'm not feeling optimistic. The default here seems to be that we restrict the lives of children and the working age population.

You really should watch Brazil, what is happening there is a catastrophe with a variant hitting a country thought to have a stronger herd immunity from their first wave. Brazil is a potential big issue for the World and we need to pray that variant doesn’t take hold here.

Someone posted in another thread to think about each wave as a new self contained virus, because essentially that is what each variant is. What drives our next wave will be a very different virus to the first wave. Our numbers will go up at a different pace to the initial wave and the second wave. This is what has happened in Europe- they are ahead of us because our lockdown had to be longer to get us through the winter months without risking a spike in cases too soon.

Zero covid is perhaps our only chance. Otherwise we will be in and out of lockdown for a good while.

One major difference btw UK and France is that the French govt can't ban indoor mixing. Even at the peak of the first lockdown it was still totally legal to have 100 people to party in your chateau, if you could get them there (which you couldn't).

France has a written constitution which prevents the govt interfering in private family life / homes. The UK does not. So here they've had to accept that and try to work round it. As a result our strictest lockdowns have focused on preventing people from moving around and reducing mixing in public areas, because that is what they can control legally.

They'v tried hard to get people to reduce indoor meet-ups with the rule of 6 adults / 10 in total with children, but it's still just a recommendation. I have no doubt it has had a big impact on France's overall numbers.

OP, not all of America is getting on with it. I live in CA and we've had some of the strictest restrictions. Things are starting to open up here now because a) the majority of ppl are mask complient (they are mandatory everywhere) b) we are vaccinating and testing at a high rate and c) our numbers are reducing due to b). We've missed out on a lot to get to this point.